Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

2006-2007 changed my view of this category. Going into awards week 2006, I presumed Dreamgirls, with its overall nominations total and its period look, had plenty enough to win the prize. It was only late in the week that I finally caught up with Marie Antoinette, on DVD. Fifteen minutes in, my wife said "Hello: costumes!" She was wise enough to pick the film in our pool. I thought a film with a single nomination had no chance, and stuck with Dreamgirls. We know who turned out right.

A year later, similar story. Atonement seemed an even stronger candidate for the award: it not only had period gowns, it was a frickin' best picture nominee. Again, by coincidence, I saw the eventual winner, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, just a few days prior to the awards. Again, swayed by the lavishness on display, my wife switched her vote; again I stuck to my guns, and got it wrong.

The next year, multi-nominated Benjamin Button had plenty enough period costumes to win by normal standards. But The Duchess -- another film with no claim in any major category -- had eye-poppingly beautiful costumes. This time I was alert to the trend, and went with The Duchess. A new paradigm had been established: it no longer mattered if a film was an overall favorite. If the costumes were ostentatiously striking enough, they were going to win.

Lincoln and Les Miz are the Dreamgirls/Atonement of this year. There are plenty of impressive period costumes. But they don't make the screen glow, and that's what voters go for, these days. As it happens, there are two nominees that do glow. Mirror Mirror maybe be pretty dismal, but it's got some of the brightest colors you'd ever want to see. The costume ball alone would be enough to win in most years.

But Mirror -- as well as Lincoln/Les Miz -- has the misfortune of competing against a film that at least aspires to greater seriousness, and also at certain points seems to be ABOUT costumes. For the first half hour of Anna Karenina, I felt like I was watching a Russian themed fashion show -- one spectacular costume after another. I don't see how anything else can possibly win against it.

My apologies. i had forgotten the Golden Globe win. It wasn't a deliberate act of omission. But the Golden Globe for Best Comedy or Musical isn't always the best precursor to cite as your sole win. Just ask Evita.

Big Magilla wrote:However, if you people would bother to read what I said instead of treating me like a moron who doesn't know what he's talking about, you will see that I said "if". The most likely scenario is that Argo will win Best Picture, but anything is possible.

"You people"? Okay, now you sound like Ann Romney.

Since Maggie Smith's double nomination didn't materialize, you've simply latched onto an equally impossible scenario. That's all I'm seeing here.

Forgot about the DGA, but then this year's hasn't happened yet, not that Hooper has any chance of winning that.

However, if you people would bother to read what I said instead of treating me like a moron who doesn't know what he's talking about, you will see that I said "if". The most likely scenario is that Argo will win Best Picture, but anything is possible.

Big Magilla wrote:

OscarGuy wrote: Les Mis has won absolutely NO precursors. The last time a film managed that was before I was even paying attention to the Oscars.

I guess the Golden Globe doesn't count when you don't want it to.

The last three films to win without a precursor other than the Globes. Let's see, Oliver!; The Sound of Music; Gigi. What do you know. They were all musicals. But I guess those who voted for them are all dead or in their twilight years now so who cares.

Well, Gigi and The Sound of Music both won the DGA so...you know...there's that.

Setting aside Magilla's puzzling resistance to accepting Les Mis's fate, when you look at how well the other Best Picture nominees did with the Academy at the nominations round, Les Mis seems to be running, at best, fifth in the Best Picture race behind Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings (not necessarily in that order), and more likely, sixth given Zero Dark Thirty's Screenplay/Editing combo. I think it's possible Les Mis still wins a tech prize or two (in addition to the obvious acting prize), but I find it really hard to still consider it any kind of realistic Best Picture winner.

OscarGuy wrote: Les Mis has won absolutely NO precursors. The last time a film managed that was before I was even paying attention to the Oscars.

I guess the Golden Globe doesn't count when you don't want it to.

The last three films to win without a precursor other than the Globes. Let's see, Oliver!; The Sound of Music; Gigi. What do you know. They were all musicals. But I guess those who voted for them are all dead or in their twilight years now so who cares.

Sabin wrote:The Golden Globe is a precursor.

I'm with you. I don't think it's winning either. In fact, there's a chance it's only going to win for Anne Hathaway.

And that too would be a crime of epic proportion.

The Golden Globe is a precursor.

I'm with you. I don't think it's winning either. In fact, there's a chance it's only going to win for Anne Hathaway.

And let me add to my statement. Crash wasn't technically maligned by critics. It still holds a 76% fresh rating, Braveheart is at 80% and A Beautiful Mind is at 78%. Les Mis is at 70%...so, I guess you could say there have been three films to win Best Picture with middling reviews, but every single one of those films won at least one or more precursors going into their wins. Les Mis is out of potential last-minute victories.

It's wishful thinking to believe that the critically maligned Les Miserables will win Best Picture. Crash was the only film in two decades that had an overall mediocre response from critics that actually managed to overcome that for a Best Picture win.

Argo, Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are the only films we should be at all discussing as Best Picture contenders. Les Miserables got no writing, directing or editing nomination. And yes, I know that Argo doesn't have a directing nomination, but it's an entirely different case. Les Mis has won absolutely NO precursors. The last time a film managed that was before I was even paying attention to the Oscars.

flipp525 wrote:

ITALIANO wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:
Excellent analogy. To carry it a bit further, if Lincoln loses here to Les Misérables it will lose Best Picture to Les Misérables as well.

It's a completely different situation. If Les Miserables wins Costume Design it won't mean anything, Big Magilla.

Les Miz is not winning Best Picture.

Yeah no chance at all.

ITALIANO wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:
Excellent analogy. To carry it a bit further, if Lincoln loses here to Les Misérables it will lose Best Picture to Les Misérables as well.

It's a completely different situation. If Les Miserables wins Costume Design it won't mean anything, Big Magilla.

I agree.

ITALIANO wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:
Excellent analogy. To carry it a bit further, if Lincoln loses here to Les Misérables it will lose Best Picture to Les Misérables as well.

It's a completely different situation. If Les Miserables wins Costume Design it won't mean anything, Big Magilla.

Les Miz is not winning Best Picture.

Big Magilla wrote:
Excellent analogy. To carry it a bit further, if Lincoln loses here to Les Misérables it will lose Best Picture to Les Misérables as well.

It's a completely different situation. If Les Miserables wins Costume Design it won't mean anything, Big Magilla.

mlrg wrote:

Big Magilla wrote:A win for Les Misérables could mean the film's fan base has not diminished. It's really too close to call.

In Damien's Inside Oscar I recall reading that Warren Beatty thought his chances of winning best picture with Reds were killed the moment during the oscar ceremony they lost costume design to Chariots of Fire. If Lincoln wins here, it will sweep.

Excellent analogy. To carry it a bit further, if Lincoln loses here to Les Misérables it will lose Best Picture to Les Misérables as well. If Anna Karenina wins, it will mean neither film is an Oscar juggernaut and another film, most likely Argo, will win Best Picture.