Re: 2012 Oscar Nominations
Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 10:44 pm
Oscar voting doesn't start until February 8th. The winds of change are still swirling.
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Bigelow's mistake was thinking she could use logic to convince folks her film was not pro-torture. As Martin Sheen so clearly admitted, the attacks on this film are based on absolute ignorance and maybe even prejudice. I think it was very big of him not only to publicly admit his mistake, but reach out and apologize personally to Bigelow and Boal.Sabin wrote:I feel sort of bad for the producers and the creatives on this film. I'm not a big fan of Zero Dark Thirty, but they did a pretty miserable job of heading off bad publicity at the pass. Admittedly, not every Oscar contender has to deal with Senate inquiries, but Kathryn Bigelow has almost made the film sound like homework at this point. Rather than illustrate what her artistic vision is for the narrative, she is mounting the same programmed defense again and again. I don't gauge excitement from her public appearances. That being said, it's gotten some of the best reviews of the year and has grossed $71 million without signs of stopping before it hits somewhere between $80 or $90. I think the pro-ZDT articles are just too little too late. The damage has been done. It doesn't further credit Zero Dark Thirty, but simply attempts to discredit the attacks.
Right now ARGO and ZERO DARK THIRTY seem to be the only Best Picture nominees anyone is talking about. Even though conventional wisdom says LINCOLN is going to win Best Picture, no one seems all that enthusiastic about it. Obviously the box-office takes prove people love the movie, but it does not inspire passion the way Best Picture winners usually do.OscarGuy wrote:Probably the raft of pro-ZDT articles being posted. HP has posted two recent articles about it. One is the Martin Sheen signing on to the anti-ZDT letter "without signing on" and now it's 9/11 families coming out against the anti-torture faction about ZDT. Basically, the publicity behind ZDT is struggling to stay relavent, thus a renewed interest in focusing on the film.
I feel sort of bad for the producers and the creatives on this film. I'm not a big fan of Zero Dark Thirty, but they did a pretty miserable job of heading off bad publicity at the pass. Admittedly, not every Oscar contender has to deal with Senate inquiries, but Kathryn Bigelow has almost made the film sound like homework at this point. Rather than illustrate what her artistic vision is for the narrative, she is mounting the same programmed defense again and again. I don't gauge excitement from her public appearances. That being said, it's gotten some of the best reviews of the year and has grossed $71 million without signs of stopping before it hits somewhere between $80 or $90.OscarGuy wrote
Probably the raft of pro-ZDT articles being posted. HP has posted two recent articles about it. One is the Martin Sheen signing on to the anti-ZDT letter "without signing on" and now it's 9/11 families coming out against the anti-torture faction about ZDT. Basically, the publicity behind ZDT is struggling to stay relavent, thus a renewed interest in focusing on the film.
They also seem to be changing arbitrarily. When I first posted this link, I swear LIFE OF PI was ahead of ZERO DARK THIRTY in the Best Picture lineup -- I remember this because I thought it connected to our discussion about what would be in a five film lineup. Now ZERO DARK THIRTY is ahead of LIFE OF PI. What changed in the past few hours to bump LIFE OF PI down?The Original BJ wrote:The ludicrous thing about these "stats" is that the percentage granted to the frontrunners in almost every category is so overwhelming, the second and third place candidates have percentages basically close to zero, suggesting that a win by anything other than the frontrunner in EVERY SINGLE category would count as a Marisa Tomei-level stunner.rolotomasi99 wrote:The Huffington Post claims to have "crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards."
http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/ ... redictions
The ludicrous thing about these "stats" is that the percentage granted to the frontrunners in almost every category is so overwhelming, the second and third place candidates have percentages basically close to zero, suggesting that a win by anything other than the frontrunner in EVERY SINGLE category would count as a Marisa Tomei-level stunner.rolotomasi99 wrote:The Huffington Post claims to have "crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards."
http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/ ... redictions
Million Dollar Baby? Yes. It wasn't going to be The Aviator or Sideways.Greg wroteYou were sure that Million Dollar Baby would defeat The Aviator in 2004 and that Crash would defeat Brokeback Mountain in 2005?Sabin wrote
This is the first time in over a decade where I'm not sure what's going to win Best Picture or Best Director. 2002, with A Beautiful Mind and Ron Howard (though that was deluding myself)? 2001, with Gladiator and Steven Soderbergh?
I am not 100% sure what you mean by "someone like Benh Zeitlin" but I am assuming you are referring to his young age and inexperience.OscarGuy wrote:You don't get nominations in screenplay, acting and directing without support from a wide array of voters.
It's hard to believe the DGA would only match 3, but I really think Beasts had a lot more support than anyone expected. You don't give a Best Director nod to someone like Benh Zeitlin without loving his film.
I question how they are crunching their stats when they predict that Argo will win Best Picture while failing to win any other award.rolotomasi99 wrote:The Huffington Post claims to have "crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards."
http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/ ... redictions