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Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 4:08 pm
by Damien
Big Magilla wrote:I always thought it was Vangelis' score that that made Chariots of Fire seem better than it was. The King's Speech has an excellent, old school type of score, but it's not really inspiring the way Vangelis' score was, or magnificent, in the best sense of the word, as the scores of Erich Wolfgang Korngold were for Captains Blood; The Adventures of Robin Hood and The Sea Hawk or even John Barry's score for The Lion in Winter were, and if thsoe scores couldn;t proel their films to Best Picture wins, neither will The King's Speech.
Yes, but The King's Speech also has Beethoven.
The King's Speech is a "feel-good" movie -- even more so than The Fighter -- in a way that the clinical Social Network is not, and that can be a major facting in Academy voting. I know so many people -- not "cinephiles" but folks who are interested in, and frequently go to movies -- who simply love The King's Speech. I know maybe 2 people who express passion for the Fincher. That doesn't mean anything much, other than Academy voters generally seem more in line with regular moviegoers than with critics.
Tee, some of us are delighted that The King's Speech won the PGA because we actually do like The King's Speech.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 3:21 pm
by Big Magilla
I always thought it was Vangelis' score that that made Chariots of Fire seem better than it was. The King's Speech has an excellent, old school type of score, but it's not really inspiring the way Vangelis' score was, or magnificent, in the best sense of the word, as the scores of Erich Wolfgang Korngold were for Captains Blood; The Adventures of Robin Hood and The Sea Hawk or even John Barry's score for The Lion in Winter were, and if thsoe scores couldn;t proel their films to Best Picture wins, neither will The King's Speech.
I also thought that Chariots of Fire won because voters saw it as an alternative to the good, but not that great Reds and the somewhat covered in moss nature of On Golden Pond. That Reds won Best Director but lost Adapted Screenplay to Chariots of Fire should have been something of a tip-off that Reds wouldn't win Best Picture. With On Golden Pond's win for Best Actress, I thought the scales had tipped in its favor for the big one, but it wasn't going to be and I don't think the Oscar will to The King's Speech, which is even more of a moss-covered film, either.
If anything is going to upset The Social Network, I still think it will be True Grit or The Fighter.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:04 pm
by ITALIANO
I haven't seen The King's Speech yet, so I don't know if it really is better than Fincher's movie. But of course it's nice to see at least one precursor, at the last moment, going against that phenomenon called The Social Network. This alone, of course, doesn't mean anything when it comes to the Oscars - it could mean more if, as others have pointed out, another movie (The King's Speech or The Fighter) gets the SAG award for Best Ensemble. The Social Network isn't exactly an actors-driven movie, but it's certainly an ensemble piece, so losing there would signal that it's weaker than we thought.
But still, even if that happens... I don't know, I just don't see the Academy risking what's left of its reputation by going against such an universally regarded (at least in America) work of contemporary art - especially by picking in its place a movie which seems to be so old-fashioned and lightweight. (Though Mister Tee's example - not Brockeback Mountain, but the Reds/Chariots of Fire upset - comes close to something like this).
Edited By ITALIANO on 1295809884
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:34 pm
by Mister Tee
Yeah, rolo, saying Up in the Air was the critics' favorite last year is close to amnesiac. Hurt Locker swept through the critics' group; without that run, I see no way such a financial flop could have won.
I was off on which group would do this -- I predicted King's Speech to win the Globes, not here -- but I never expected we'd get a clean sweep to best picture; the subject matter of Social Network isn't warm and fuzzy enough for such broad acceptance.
I find it telling that any number of people are gleeful, not because they love The King's Speech, but simply because they don't love Social Network and want to see its outsized praise stop. Some of you won't want to hear this, but I think that's precisely the syndrome that killed Brokeback Mountain's best picture shot. I realize it's accepted wisdom that it was "Ernest Borgnine in the Library with his Homophobia" that killed Ang Lee's film. But I always felt it was disappointment many felt over a film that was solid and moving but not the modern masterpiece the unanimity of critics promised that set up the shocking defeat. (My brother, an ACLU liberal, said he thought it one of the most over-rated movies he'd ever seen) People who think they're being hustled in one direction can move the other way from pure spite.
A similar scenario happened with Reds back in '81 -- people kept telling me they respected it but didn't love it, and the schmaltzier, comfortable old Britannia movie carried the day. There does come a point where being the clear favorite can become a handicap, if it persuades all opponents to unite and vote against it. And, with the weighted ballot, it's even easier for those opponents to negate their bete noire by shunting it to the 10th spot, even if it would honestly rank further up the list.
Of course, unlike Brokeback/Crash, Social Network fans have had advance warning, and some of them will now likely push King's Speech to 10th place. The brave new world of preferential voting.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:14 am
by Bog
rolotomasi99 wrote:I know I am not the only person around here to predict an upset by THE KING'S SPEECH
I think it's just me and you
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:07 am
by The Original BJ
rolotomasi99 wrote: I am happy the critics preferred UP IN THE AIR for the most part, so when little THE HURT LOCKER won it was (for me) a pleasant surprise.
Huh? The Hurt Locker won all three major critics awards.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 10:18 am
by Okri
What BJ said. I'd love for something to steal TSN's thunder.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:03 am
by rolotomasi99
Wow, I was right! I know I am not the only person around here to predict an upset by THE KING'S SPEECH, but some folks seemed so certain nothing could stop THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
I know the PGA has been wrong before, but I still think the emotional reaction people have to THE KING'S SPEECH is what will allow it to triumph over the coldness of THE SOCIAL NETWORK.
I think both films are equally well made, so I do not have any preference between the two of them winning Best Picture. I do not, however, like this Borg mentality that seems to have sprung up where everyone seems to think only one good movie was released last year. I am happy the critics preferred UP IN THE AIR for the most part, so when little THE HURT LOCKER won it was (for me) a pleasant surprise.
I predict the SAG ensemble award will go to THE KING'S SPEECH but the DGA will go to THE SOCIAL NETWORK. I think both films now have even chances for winning Best Picture.
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Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 3:09 am
by Damien
Yay!!! Finally, at long last, a group with some sense 
(although I would have preferred The Fighter).
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 3:07 am
by Reza
Had director Tom Hooper been able to shoehorn in a Holocaust reference the game would have been over.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:53 am
by Big Magilla
This is the one guild I've never been able to read.
I just don't get it. What is the message they're trying to deliver? With Moulin Rouge, it might have been "make more musicals". With Little Miss Sunshine and The Hurt Locker, it might have been "make more little movies". Are they trying to say "make more TV movies for release on the big screen"?
This is one of the dullest Oscar years ever. I do think The Social Network was the year's best film, but only by default.
I don't think any film deserves to win more than a couple of awards. I don't want anything to sweep to make it look like that particular film was head and shoulders above the competition because nothing was.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 2:01 am
by Mister Tee
The Original BJ wrote:Wow. As much as I don't want The King's Speech to win Best Picture, it is fairly energizing to see that SOMEONE threw a wrench into this year's awards season.
I'd rather see the acting races get more competitive; not the one category where I actually want the favorite to win.
You can look at this two ways:
1) PGA uses the same preferential ballot as the Oscars, so this may be the most accurate preview of how AMPAS will go.
2) PGA -- whatever balloting they use -- has been off from the ultimate best picture choice far more often than DGA. Just in this decade: Moulin Rouge, The Aviator and Little Miss Sunshine. Gladiator remains the only time they predicted a winner not already foretold by DGA.
This, of course, assumes Fincher wins DGA, which I think is still a solid bet.
And SAG Ensemble now becomes a very interesting competition.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:40 am
by The Original BJ
Wow. As much as I don't want The King's Speech to win Best Picture, it is fairly energizing to see that SOMEONE threw a wrench into this year's awards season.
Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 1:32 am
by OscarGuy
According to Steve Pond's tweets, these are the winners:
Picture: The King's Speech
Documentary: Waiting for "Superman"
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3