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Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 10:27 pm
by Mister Tee
Okri wrote:Wait, 127 Hours is a lock?
Yeah, I was going to challenge Hollywood Z on that as well. I see Kids/Town/127 Hours and Winter's Bone as playing a game of musical chairs, with only three seats available.

Oddly, I think Boyle might have a stronger chance of cracking the directors' list of five (based on the technical feat) than of making the best picture ten.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:22 pm
by Okri
Wait, 127 Hours is a lock?

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 5:59 pm
by Hollywood Z
In defense of Oscarguy's point, I think that he's saying that both The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone have the same thing going for their favor: both being directed by women and in a year where the first woman won Best Director in the previous year. However, what The Kids Are All Right has going for it that Winter's Bone doesn't is that it's more mainstream independent that Winter's Bone, which is a purebred independent production in that there are no stars, no large studios behind it. It has only word of mouth and a large loyal fanbase behind it to carry it over to a nomination.

Would it be great if it were nominated? Yes, it would, but with nearly 7 films being locks for Best Picture (The Social Network, The King's Speech, Inception, Black Swan, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours and The Fighter are pretty much the blanketed assured ones) and the others vying for the last three spots are The Town (which I'm still predicting will sneak in), True Grit (Easy nod with the Coen Brothers' loyal support in the Academy), The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone. Anything else is pretty much wishful thinking at this stage of the game (Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole, Another Year, The Ghost Writer).

So, in my opinion, the final Best Picture slot will be a battle between The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone. I think the higher production values and the more recognizable cast & crew will win out for Kids, not to mention the subject matter is one that the Academy would want to save face with since they still have egg on their face after Brokeback Mountain's loss to Crash. So, in the end, The Kids Are All Right has the deciding factor that always helps to earn a nomination: political motivations.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 5:53 pm
by jack
OscarGuy wrote:In the scope of my discussion, Jack. It's not my opinion I'm referring to, but that of voters wanting to make sure there isn't a one-off female director representation.

But I guess no one sees my point, so I'll drop it.
I see your point.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 5:33 pm
by OscarGuy
In the scope of my discussion, Jack. It's not my opinion I'm referring to, but that of voters wanting to make sure there isn't a one-off female director representation.

But I guess no one sees my point, so I'll drop it.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 5:02 pm
by jack
OscarGuy wrote:Then again, The Kids Are All Right is likely to be nominated, so those voters may not feel the need to nominate Winter's Bone. I'm not saying it won't be nominated. It's currently on my prediction list, but I will suggest that it's one of the weaker potential nominees.
So, if they nominate The Kids Are All Right then they don't have to nominate Winter's Bone because they're both directed by women? That doesn't make sense.

The Kids Are All Right should take the comedy picture slot. I see a Winter's Bone nomination in much the same light as A Serious Man's nod last year. However, if we were still dealing with five nominees then Kids would be in and Bone would be out.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:38 pm
by OscarGuy
When a large awards-giving body does a first-ever thing...it doesn't always open the door to similar events in the future. Frequently it takes years to see the same thing happen again. In that way, some Academy voters may want Bigelow not to be the only one...and by nominating a film by a woman director, they are saying that they aren't just going to return to the Old Boys Club. Were they to ignore the film, some might cry sexism and suggest that the Academy only did it to shut the complainers up.

Then again, The Kids Are All Right is likely to be nominated, so those voters may not feel the need to nominate Winter's Bone. I'm not saying it won't be nominated. It's currently on my prediction list, but I will suggest that it's one of the weaker potential nominees.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:32 pm
by rolotomasi99
OscarGuy wrote:Of course, the fact that Bone is directed by a woman could encourage voters to give it a nod to show that Bigelow isn't a one-off even though most of us know that not to be the case.

Are you saying no woman director will ever be nominated again or no woman director will ever win again? I am not sure what "one-off" means.

I would say INVICTUS was far more Academy friendly than A SERIOUS MAN. Both films scored one nomination, but they gave Best Picture to the weird little art house film which made absolutely no money.

I would love for THE TOWN to be nominated, but not at the expense of WINTER'S BONE. I have not kept a close tab, but it seems Granik and her film have been nominated for as many critics awards as THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, THE FIGHTER, and a couple other Best Picture frontrunners. I would not count the film or its director out just yet.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1294169570

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:21 pm
by rolotomasi99
Cinemanolis wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:This year, I see THE TOWN and THE FIGHTER being replaced by TOY STORY 3 and WINTER'S BONE.
Toy Story 3 was nominated by the PGA
I saw it in the animated ghetto category, and thought it had been excluded from the main group. My mistake.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 1:56 pm
by OscarGuy
I'm generally leary of Winter's Bone. It had a good run, but The Kids Are All Right seems more Oscar friendly. And the only film I could see it replacing is The Town, which might be more friendly to Academy voters, especially since it's directed by an up-and-coming actor-turned-director. Of course, the fact that Bone is directed by a woman could encourage voters to give it a nod to show that Bigelow isn't a one-off even though most of us know that not to be the case.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 1:08 pm
by The Original BJ
I would be absolutely floored if The Fighter missed a Best Picture Oscar nod.

I don't think these nominations change anyone's idea of the race -- most of us had it pegged as a fight between 11 films for 10 spots, with the PGA ten plus Winter's Bone as the only real Oscar options.

I expect most people will score at least 9/10 on their prediction ballots this year, with plenty going 10/10.

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:44 pm
by Cinemanolis
rolotomasi99 wrote:This year, I see THE TOWN and THE FIGHTER being replaced by TOY STORY 3 and WINTER'S BONE.
Toy Story 3 was nominated by the PGA

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:39 pm
by rolotomasi99
Last year, STAR TREK and INVICTUS were replaced by THE BLIND SIDE and A SERIOUS MAN.

That is one popular genre action film and a serious bio-pic sports drama being replaced by a hugely popular family film and a small art-house film.

This year, I see THE TOWN and THE FIGHTER being replaced by TOY STORY 3 and WINTER'S BONE.

That is one popular genre film and a serious bio-pic sports drama being replaced by a hugely popular family film and a small art-house film.

I know it is impossible to say which movie replaced the other, but since we only have last year to guide us I am using those similarities as the best indicator.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1294162793

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:04 pm
by Big Magilla
Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The Town is a better film than Winter's Bone.

Beg to differ.

I'd say the mildly surprising inclusion is more 127 Hours than The Town. This is a guild that once included the first Harry Potter, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding; they love unexpectedly high-grossing movies like The Town. But 127 Hours was a film that was anticipated to be, if not a hit, at least more widely-seen than it has been. Whereas Winter's Bone is a tiny no-name indie that could have topped out at half its final gross, and thus is viewed in Hollywood bookkeeping as a relatively greater success.

But this is all tinkering in the margins. The rough field has been obvious for some time, and what slips inyo the 9th and 10th slots isn't all that interesting. Picking the five that'll get directing is this year's challenging game.

It was the original article that drew the distinction between Winter's Bone and The Town, not me. I was merely commenting on their issue.

I'm not at all surprised to see 127 Hours show up here. The PGA also nominated Into the Wild, another critically acclaimed film that audiences stayed away from because the subject matter was seemingly too depressing. Oscar only gave Into the Wild a measly two nominations. It remains to be seen how they will treat 127 Hours, but with ten slots, its chances are probably better than Into the Wild's.

Given the PGA's track record of being 80% right, what will the Academy's two surprises be this year? Is there another Blind Side in the waiting out there?




Edited By Big Magilla on 1294160672

Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:44 am
by Hollywood Z
I was kinda switching between Winter's Bone and The Kids Are All Right for the nomination, but in the end, I remembered that it was the Producers Guild, so I thought of what appeared to be the best produced over what only had word of mouth to rely on.

Funny enough, I actually predicted these nominees 10 out of 10 today!