Oh September...where bad movies go to be ignored or at best barely squek out a win based on very low expectations.
RESIDENT EVIL 4 is the only film being released this weekend. Thus it will most definitely be number one. Given how the previous three films in the series have pretty much opened to the same amount of ticket sales ($17 m, $23m, and $23 m) I doubt this one will have lost or gained any audience members.
The 3D prices will probably give the flick to a $30 m opening. The final tally for the previous three was $40 m, $50 m, and $51 m, and this one will probably get to between $60 and $65 m.
Despite the bad word of mouth everyone assumed, THE AMERICAN has been able to stay atop the box-office all week. I figure RESIDENT EVIL 4 is not going to sap too much of the folks interested in THE AMERICAN. TAKERS, MACHETE, and THE EXPENDABLES will hopefully suffer.
Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1284153163
2010 Box-Office Predix - Let the guessing begin!
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rolotomasi99
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rolotomasi99
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Sometimes I like being wrong, and nothing made me happier than to see THE AMERICAN number one at the box-office. I think very few thought the quiet, cerebral, character-driven film would beat out the loud, stupid, actio-driven MACHETE.
From the reaction of audiences in exit polling, most had no idea what type of film THE AMERICAN was going to be. Hopefully there will be enough people who enjoyed it to recommend it to those who like well made films. I have yet to see the film myself, but the reviews were great and I loved director Anton Corbijn's last film CONTROL.
From the reaction of audiences in exit polling, most had no idea what type of film THE AMERICAN was going to be. Hopefully there will be enough people who enjoyed it to recommend it to those who like well made films. I have yet to see the film myself, but the reviews were great and I loved director Anton Corbijn's last film CONTROL.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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Sonic Youth
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'The American' closes out a confusing summer movie season
By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY
How you view Hollywood's summer movies depends largely on how you measure success.
If you're a dollars-and-cents fan, summer 2010 marked a new record for revenues, with $4.35 billion in ticket sales in the USA and Canada, according to Hollywood.com.
But if you measure the health of the industry by how many people actually go see movies, things aren't so rosy. Attendance this summer was 552 million, the lowest total since 1997.
Hollywood didn't help itself much with its slate this weekend, which went to George Clooney's thriller The American with $16.4 million over the four-day holiday.
Though the movie met its modest expectations, the weekend newcomers proved underwhelming to U.S. audiences, who have yawned at many summer selections.
Explaining the ticket sales record is easy. Movies are more expensive than ever, now hovering at $7.88 a ticket. And those 3-D and Imax shows routinely cost $15 a ticket.
Explaining the attendance swoon is trickier. The summer had plenty of films that impressed critics and moviegoers, like Toy Story 3 and Inception.
But there has been no juggernaut of 2010 yet. The highest-grossing film so far is Toy Story 3 at $408 million, the only movie to cross the $400 million mark. Other factors tripped up Tinsel Town's summer break:
•3-D overhype? While it's hailed as the usher of Hollywood's new digital era, 3-D conversions and cheap films "caused people to lose their appetite" for the technology, says Hollywood.com's Paul Dergarabedian. Of the summer's top four films, only Toy Story was shot in 3-D.
•The Twitter/Facebook effect. Some analysts believe that as much as Twitter can spread hype, it shut others down before they were out of the gate. The $100 million Green Zone opened to a respectable $14 million, but petered out at $36 million. "Big on Friday, dead by Sunday," Dergarabedian says. "With many substandard offerings, this happened a lot."
The Robert Rodriguez pulp film Machete was second with $14 million, followed by the crime thriller Takers with $13.5 million. The Last Exorcism was fourth with $8.8 million, followed by Drew Barrymore newcomer Going the Distance, which bowed to a weak $8.6 million.
Final figures are due Tuesday.
By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY
How you view Hollywood's summer movies depends largely on how you measure success.
If you're a dollars-and-cents fan, summer 2010 marked a new record for revenues, with $4.35 billion in ticket sales in the USA and Canada, according to Hollywood.com.
But if you measure the health of the industry by how many people actually go see movies, things aren't so rosy. Attendance this summer was 552 million, the lowest total since 1997.
Hollywood didn't help itself much with its slate this weekend, which went to George Clooney's thriller The American with $16.4 million over the four-day holiday.
Though the movie met its modest expectations, the weekend newcomers proved underwhelming to U.S. audiences, who have yawned at many summer selections.
Explaining the ticket sales record is easy. Movies are more expensive than ever, now hovering at $7.88 a ticket. And those 3-D and Imax shows routinely cost $15 a ticket.
Explaining the attendance swoon is trickier. The summer had plenty of films that impressed critics and moviegoers, like Toy Story 3 and Inception.
But there has been no juggernaut of 2010 yet. The highest-grossing film so far is Toy Story 3 at $408 million, the only movie to cross the $400 million mark. Other factors tripped up Tinsel Town's summer break:
•3-D overhype? While it's hailed as the usher of Hollywood's new digital era, 3-D conversions and cheap films "caused people to lose their appetite" for the technology, says Hollywood.com's Paul Dergarabedian. Of the summer's top four films, only Toy Story was shot in 3-D.
•The Twitter/Facebook effect. Some analysts believe that as much as Twitter can spread hype, it shut others down before they were out of the gate. The $100 million Green Zone opened to a respectable $14 million, but petered out at $36 million. "Big on Friday, dead by Sunday," Dergarabedian says. "With many substandard offerings, this happened a lot."
The Robert Rodriguez pulp film Machete was second with $14 million, followed by the crime thriller Takers with $13.5 million. The Last Exorcism was fourth with $8.8 million, followed by Drew Barrymore newcomer Going the Distance, which bowed to a weak $8.6 million.
Final figures are due Tuesday.
"What the hell?"
Win Butler
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rolotomasi99
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Now these are what September releases look like. These are the cast-aways and the almost forgotten.
MACHETE is definitely going to be number one, but how big is the question. I think $20 m is likely. Everything else in theatres have run their course. Those that enjoyed the violent mayhem of THE EXPENDABLES will see this one. It will probably run out steam quickly and end with around $45 m.
GOING THE DISTANCE looks a slightly less horrible hetero-rom-com than the usual dreck. This of course means it will be a total flop. I am thinking probably $10 m opening and $30 m altogether.
THE AMERICAN looks like an art-house film which accidentally wandered into the multi-plexes. Its first two days brought in $3 m, and this weekend will probably only give it an additional $6 m. $25 m seems like the most this thing can do.
MACHETE is definitely going to be number one, but how big is the question. I think $20 m is likely. Everything else in theatres have run their course. Those that enjoyed the violent mayhem of THE EXPENDABLES will see this one. It will probably run out steam quickly and end with around $45 m.
GOING THE DISTANCE looks a slightly less horrible hetero-rom-com than the usual dreck. This of course means it will be a total flop. I am thinking probably $10 m opening and $30 m altogether.
THE AMERICAN looks like an art-house film which accidentally wandered into the multi-plexes. Its first two days brought in $3 m, and this weekend will probably only give it an additional $6 m. $25 m seems like the most this thing can do.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Toy Story 3 has just made a billion dollars worldwide. It is The One.
Inception is just picking up worldwide but it's already clocked in over half a billion dollars. Doing slightly better are Iron Man 2, Twilight: Eclipse, and Shrek Forever After. These are your summer all-star blockbusters. You can probably lump Despicable Me in there as well. It outgrossed Shrek Forever After and How to Train Your Dragon domestically.
Your big summer hits are Salt, The Karate Kid and Grown-Ups. They all validated the cost of their production and marketing, and it's looking like The Expendables can be considered one as well. How far it continues to go is up in the air but there doesn't seem to be much standing in its way. Overseas tallies should be pretty huge.
After that it gets dicey, but not for The Last Airbender. Sucks to say it, but The Last Airbender has made $130 mil domestically and overseas tallies should push it past $200 mil. It's not a flop. It's doing fine. And so are Robin Hood, Sex and the City 2, and Prince of Persia. All three of these films have made over $300 mil worldwide. I don't see any sequels to follow but they did just fine.
The Back-Up Plan, Death at a Funeral, Dinner for Schmucks, Get Him to the Greek, Letters to Juliet, Predators, and Step-Up 3D all did modest business. When DVD tallies come in, they can be considered solid little hits for niche markets.
Knight & Day is a mixed bag. Worldwide, it's taken in over $200 mil. That's the kind of disappointment only Tom Cruise can make. It's too early to tell how far Eat Pray Love will go but certainly sights were set much higher. The same is true for The A-Team. Worse off were Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, The Killers, Marmaduke, and The Sorcerer's Apprentice.
That brings us to Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. And I have to say, I'm very disappointed in you all. This is a major American film that touches on a cultural zeitgeist. I've heard some very mixed responses from friends and colleagues, but this is a very strong piece of work from a filmmaker with a strong, endearing voice. Chalk it up to a confusing marketing campaign or Michael Cera fatigue, or a $60 mil budget. All I know is that everyone who has seen it has seen it two or three times...and that I live in a bubble and it has certainly warped my perspective on things.
Inception is just picking up worldwide but it's already clocked in over half a billion dollars. Doing slightly better are Iron Man 2, Twilight: Eclipse, and Shrek Forever After. These are your summer all-star blockbusters. You can probably lump Despicable Me in there as well. It outgrossed Shrek Forever After and How to Train Your Dragon domestically.
Your big summer hits are Salt, The Karate Kid and Grown-Ups. They all validated the cost of their production and marketing, and it's looking like The Expendables can be considered one as well. How far it continues to go is up in the air but there doesn't seem to be much standing in its way. Overseas tallies should be pretty huge.
After that it gets dicey, but not for The Last Airbender. Sucks to say it, but The Last Airbender has made $130 mil domestically and overseas tallies should push it past $200 mil. It's not a flop. It's doing fine. And so are Robin Hood, Sex and the City 2, and Prince of Persia. All three of these films have made over $300 mil worldwide. I don't see any sequels to follow but they did just fine.
The Back-Up Plan, Death at a Funeral, Dinner for Schmucks, Get Him to the Greek, Letters to Juliet, Predators, and Step-Up 3D all did modest business. When DVD tallies come in, they can be considered solid little hits for niche markets.
Knight & Day is a mixed bag. Worldwide, it's taken in over $200 mil. That's the kind of disappointment only Tom Cruise can make. It's too early to tell how far Eat Pray Love will go but certainly sights were set much higher. The same is true for The A-Team. Worse off were Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, The Killers, Marmaduke, and The Sorcerer's Apprentice.
That brings us to Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. And I have to say, I'm very disappointed in you all. This is a major American film that touches on a cultural zeitgeist. I've heard some very mixed responses from friends and colleagues, but this is a very strong piece of work from a filmmaker with a strong, endearing voice. Chalk it up to a confusing marketing campaign or Michael Cera fatigue, or a $60 mil budget. All I know is that everyone who has seen it has seen it two or three times...and that I live in a bubble and it has certainly warped my perspective on things.
"How's the despair?"
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OscarGuy
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For those who enjoy predicting box office. A new Box Office Predictions Competition is starting tomorrow (Wednesday) on my site. I encourage everyone to participate.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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rolotomasi99
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Thus ends summer of 2010. We now enter the doldrums of September. I agree with many out there who call it one of the worst movie summers in awhile.
More big budget flops than I thought possible in a summer:
PRINCE OF PERSIA
SEX AND THE CITY 2
THE A-TEAM
THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE
KNIGHT AND DAY
CATS AND DOGS 2
SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD (the only one that should not have been a flop)
Some films that did just well enough not to be called a flop:
SALT
THE LAST AIRBENDER
SHREK 4
IRON MAN 2
The surprise successes:
THE KARATE KID
GROWN-UPS
DESPICABLE ME
The movie that is basically just printing money:
ECLIPSE
The only true success stories were INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3. I had hoped INCEPTION could have been the second biggest film of the year after TOY STORY 3, but it looks like it will have to settle for 5th...for now. TRON LEGACY and DEATHLY HALLOWS may bump it down a notch, but it will definitely stay in the top ten.
Next summer is looking insane. I count 10 films which will be considered a flop if they make less than $200 m, plus an additional 5 which have to make more than $100 m to no be labeled a flop. I just do not see how the market can possibly sustain all of these very expensive movies. I have never accused Hollywood of being smart, but this just seems beyond stupid.
More big budget flops than I thought possible in a summer:
PRINCE OF PERSIA
SEX AND THE CITY 2
THE A-TEAM
THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE
KNIGHT AND DAY
CATS AND DOGS 2
SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD (the only one that should not have been a flop)
Some films that did just well enough not to be called a flop:
SALT
THE LAST AIRBENDER
SHREK 4
IRON MAN 2
The surprise successes:
THE KARATE KID
GROWN-UPS
DESPICABLE ME
The movie that is basically just printing money:
ECLIPSE
The only true success stories were INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3. I had hoped INCEPTION could have been the second biggest film of the year after TOY STORY 3, but it looks like it will have to settle for 5th...for now. TRON LEGACY and DEATHLY HALLOWS may bump it down a notch, but it will definitely stay in the top ten.
Next summer is looking insane. I count 10 films which will be considered a flop if they make less than $200 m, plus an additional 5 which have to make more than $100 m to no be labeled a flop. I just do not see how the market can possibly sustain all of these very expensive movies. I have never accused Hollywood of being smart, but this just seems beyond stupid.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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MovieWes
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It was close, but Takers won the weekend over The Last Exorcism by under $200,000. Both films made around $20 million. The Expendables is continuing to perform well and should become the second release from Lionsgate to cross $100 million, after Fahrenheit 9/11, in a couple of weeks.
Avatar came in twelfth place with $4 million, raising its domestic cume to $753.7 million. It won't be easy, but it's possible that it could climb to #12 of all-time adjusted for inflation. It is currently sitting at #14, behind Ben-Hur and The Empire Strikes Back, which adjust to $779 million and $780 million respectively. Avatar apparently adjusts to $766 million domestically. In other news, this weekend it crossed the $2 billion mark overseas.
Avatar came in twelfth place with $4 million, raising its domestic cume to $753.7 million. It won't be easy, but it's possible that it could climb to #12 of all-time adjusted for inflation. It is currently sitting at #14, behind Ben-Hur and The Empire Strikes Back, which adjust to $779 million and $780 million respectively. Avatar apparently adjusts to $766 million domestically. In other news, this weekend it crossed the $2 billion mark overseas.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
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rolotomasi99
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Could it happen? Could AVATAR be number one at the box-office again? I know it seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. Unlike many other "Director's Cut" versions out there, Cameron often adds more than just some character development scenes. AVATAR has an additional 8 minutes of f/x scenes (including f/x sex).
Usually films released in less than 2,000 theatres do not go to number 1 at the box-office. However, BORAT did it when it was released in only slightly more theatres than AVATAR is. This summer has been so lackluster, I could see folks wanting one last big movie spectactle experience before the doldrums of September.
I am going with a $10 m opening, and maybe a full $30 m run. It will be interesting to see if folks will go for this or not.
As for the other two films, THE LAST EXORCISM is actually getting good reviews. Back in September of 2005, a little known film called THE EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE shocked everyone by also getting good reviews and opening to $30 m. I think folks are ready to be scared, and THE LAST EXORCISM by all accounts is pretty scary. I think it will be number one at the box-office with $20 m, and probably making $60 m altogether.
TAKERS looks ridiculous. I am not sure if folks are excited about seeing this film, but I doubt it can be the surprise hit THE EXPENDABLES was. I am thinking a $15 m opening with $40 m altogether.
Usually films released in less than 2,000 theatres do not go to number 1 at the box-office. However, BORAT did it when it was released in only slightly more theatres than AVATAR is. This summer has been so lackluster, I could see folks wanting one last big movie spectactle experience before the doldrums of September.
I am going with a $10 m opening, and maybe a full $30 m run. It will be interesting to see if folks will go for this or not.
As for the other two films, THE LAST EXORCISM is actually getting good reviews. Back in September of 2005, a little known film called THE EXORCISM OF EMILY ROSE shocked everyone by also getting good reviews and opening to $30 m. I think folks are ready to be scared, and THE LAST EXORCISM by all accounts is pretty scary. I think it will be number one at the box-office with $20 m, and probably making $60 m altogether.
TAKERS looks ridiculous. I am not sure if folks are excited about seeing this film, but I doubt it can be the surprise hit THE EXPENDABLES was. I am thinking a $15 m opening with $40 m altogether.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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rolotomasi99
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Wow, September seems to have come early this year. Other than some really wonderful exceptions (INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3), some of 2010 was one of the worst.
With only two weekends left in the month of August, it sure seems this summer movie season is going to end with a pathetic whimper.
THE EXPENDABLES will hopefully fall more than 50% (and maybe even make less than a $100 m), but will probably still be number one.
THE SWITCH, PIRANHA 3, LOTTERY TICKET, and NANNY MCPHEE RETURNS will all make in the $10 to $15 m range. None of them will make more than $60 m in the end. VAMPIRE SUCKS will probably make less than $30 m in its entire run yet still turn a profit.
Next weekend looks so pathetic the most popular film will be the one from 2009.
With only two weekends left in the month of August, it sure seems this summer movie season is going to end with a pathetic whimper.
THE EXPENDABLES will hopefully fall more than 50% (and maybe even make less than a $100 m), but will probably still be number one.
THE SWITCH, PIRANHA 3, LOTTERY TICKET, and NANNY MCPHEE RETURNS will all make in the $10 to $15 m range. None of them will make more than $60 m in the end. VAMPIRE SUCKS will probably make less than $30 m in its entire run yet still turn a profit.
Next weekend looks so pathetic the most popular film will be the one from 2009.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
RE: Angelina Jolie
I meant women.
RE: Scott Pilgrim's budget of $60.
Look at it! It's gorgeous, imaginative, and every scene has either elaborate action choreography or FX. Edgar Wright clearly padded out his budgetary wish list and he got everything. I mean, Bill Pope shot this film. It can't be cheap.
I meant women.
RE: Scott Pilgrim's budget of $60.
Look at it! It's gorgeous, imaginative, and every scene has either elaborate action choreography or FX. Edgar Wright clearly padded out his budgetary wish list and he got everything. I mean, Bill Pope shot this film. It can't be cheap.
"How's the despair?"
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rolotomasi99
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While I love movies and movie-making, certain things still mystify about the business.
Can someone please explain to me how in the hell SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD cost $60 m to make.
In comparison, PREDATORS cost $40 m. I have not seen either film, but from what I saw on the trailers it would seem these budgets should be reversed.
Neither film spent much on big stars since no one rose above a "B" level (if that) from either of the casts. Both were filled with special effects, but PREDATORS was (I would think) designed to be photorealistic while SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD went with a more cartoony look. Would their special effects costs really be that different? As for location, PREDATORS was shot in Hawai'i and Texas while SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD was shot in Canada. I thought everything in Hollywood was shot in Canada because it was so much cheaper than the US.
There is nothing that would indicate why SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD would cost significantly more than PREDATORS. Is there anyone who could explain how such a tiny film cost $60 m? Thanks.
Can someone please explain to me how in the hell SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD cost $60 m to make.
In comparison, PREDATORS cost $40 m. I have not seen either film, but from what I saw on the trailers it would seem these budgets should be reversed.
Neither film spent much on big stars since no one rose above a "B" level (if that) from either of the casts. Both were filled with special effects, but PREDATORS was (I would think) designed to be photorealistic while SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD went with a more cartoony look. Would their special effects costs really be that different? As for location, PREDATORS was shot in Hawai'i and Texas while SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD was shot in Canada. I thought everything in Hollywood was shot in Canada because it was so much cheaper than the US.
There is nothing that would indicate why SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD would cost significantly more than PREDATORS. Is there anyone who could explain how such a tiny film cost $60 m? Thanks.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
The $1billion mark is going to mean less and less as the years move on. Would Toy Story 3 or any other 3D movie have made as much if the whole 3D thing was never attempted? I think not, as we're charged a hell of a lot more to watch the head-ache inducing nonsense that is 3D.Sabin wrote:Just hovering below the Top Ten, Toy Story 3 just crossed $400 mil domestically. Worldwide, it is hovering $50 mil under one billion. That's unreal.
Oh, yeah, I hate 3D.