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Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:37 am
by OscarGuy
Sonic Youth wrote:No editing nom? Maybe Inception wouldn't have been nominated in a five Best Picture slate.
This does mean one thing: Best Picture comes down to Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, 127 Hours or The Social Network. No other film has a chance.
So True Grit won't win, nor will Inception.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:35 am
by Sonic Youth
Damien wrote:No Screenplay or Supporting Actress nominees for Black Swan. Academy voters, take a bow!
And no Editing nomination for Inception. Sweet!
No editing nom? Maybe Inception wouldn't have been nominated in a five Best Picture slate.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:33 am
by OscarGuy
Hurt Locker (9 nominations, tied for most nominated with Avatar)
Slumdog Millionaire (10 nominations, Benjamin Button had 13)
No Country for Old Men (8 nominations, tied for most nominated with There Will Be Blood)
The Departed (5 nominations, four other films had more with Dreamgirls tops at 
Crash (6 nominations, Brokeback Mountain had
Million Dollar Baby (7 nominations, The Aviator had
Return of the King (11 nominations, lead)
Chicago (13 nominations, lead)
A Beautiful Mind (8 nominations, Fellowship of the Ring had 13)
Gladiator (12 nominations, lead)
From a numerology standpoint, 12 is a good number. Gladiator, The English Patient, Schindler's List, Dances With Wolves all won Best Picture. You have to go back to Reds in 1981 to find a 12-nominee that didn't win.
Now, I'm still predicting Social Network to come out on top because this last decade, the Academy has shown most nominated does not always mean Best Picture. Before that, it was actually very rare. In the last 30 years, only 9 films have won Best Picture and not either lead the nominations or been tied for most. 5 of those were this past decade.
(1977, 1980, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008)
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:32 am
by Big Magilla
Bardem's nomination was mildly surprising, but I'd rather see him in the line-up instead of Robert Duvall, whom many of you were predicting. I used to like Duvall "back in the day" to coin a popular phrase that I hate, but in the last two decades he's either been over-the-top or out-to-lunch, either completely overwhelming his films and characters or almost sleepwalking through them.
I agree with Flipp that Andrew Garfield was the emotional core of The Social Network and without him Jesse Eisenberg's performance doesn't work. John Hawkes' nomination is, for me, in a class with Michael Shannon's what-the-heck nomination for Revolutionary Road.
Hailee Steinfeld nominated in support after all the boruhaha is mildly surprising, but is in keeping with the retrograde aspect of the year's overall nominations, i.e. the notion that kids belong in the lower category regardless of size of role.
Seems there are more old farts in the Academy than I thought with old-fashioned films like The King's Speech and True Grit leading the nominations. If we adhere to the general rule of the film that has the most nominations wins the big prize, then I suppose there is the possibility that The King's Speech will win, but I still think it will split the old fart vote with True Grit and the populist vote with True Grit and The Fighter while The Social Network sails to easy victory.
Best thing about the nominations: the limit of Black Swan to five, especially its exclusion for Best Original Screenplay.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:28 am
by Cinemanolis
anonymous wrote:Christopher Nolan now has 3 DGA nominations but 0 Oscar nominations.
The fact that he is snubbed again makes him the favourite for the Best Original Screenplay Oscar.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:26 am
by anonymous1980
Biggest shocker is no Waiting for 'Superman' in Documentary Feature. I was a bit surprised Andrew Garfield and BOTH Black Swan ladies got snubbed but those were possibilities.
Christopher Nolan now has 3 DGA nominations but 0 Oscar nominations.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:26 am
by Damien
King's Speech is poised to kick some Social Network ass. Yesssss!!!!!
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:21 am
by Damien
No Screenplay or Supporting Actress nominees for Black Swan. Academy voters, take a bow!
And no Editing nomination for Inception. Sweet!
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:21 am
by Cinemanolis
Yes!!! Dogtooth is in.
No!!! Where are Manville, Gosling and Garfield. The atrocious "Alice in Wonderland" has 3 nominations
Other semi suprises
Costume Design - Tempest and I Am Love
No sound nomination for Black Swan
Make up - Baney's Version
No Shutter Island at all
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:18 am
by Franz Ferdinand
- I am pleased that Social Network's score made it!
- No Director for Inception = sweet justice. 8 other nominations for Inception = blah.
- figured True Grit was old news after the Golden Globe shutout. Wrong!
- 12 nominations for King's Speech in addition to its Producers Guild victory; has the tide officially shifted in its favor?
- I still think Social Network will win 5 of its 8 nominations.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:10 am
by MovieWes
Sonic Youth wrote:Social Network - 8 noms (ouch)
Ouch? It was never going to lead the nominees. You expected it to get Costume Design or Art Direction? I think I predicted it for 9 nominations. I predicted Garfield for a supporting actor nomination, so it was nominated for pretty much everything I expected it to be nominated for (sans Garfield). The Departed, Million Dollar Baby, and Crash had fewer nominations than The Social Network and I think it matched the count of No Country for Old Men. It's fine.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:07 am
by Sonic Youth
Black Swan - 5 nominations.
No matter what you personally think of King's Speech or Black Swan, it proves once again AMPAS's innate aesthetic conservativism.
Were we back to 5 Best Film nominations, I think it may have been an Inception/Aronofsky - Picture/Director split this year.
Edited By Sonic Youth on 1295964574
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:05 am
by Sonic Youth
The King's Speech received 12 nominations. Because, you know, it broke all the laws of physics in its presentation of the world and our perception of it.
True Grit- 10 noms
Social Network - 8 noms (ouch)
Inception - 8 noms (but no director, ouch)
The Fighter - 7 noms
Black Swan - I can't count that low.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 9:04 am
by OscarGuy
The full list is now up. I'm adding names to the techs, though, so those are still in the process.
Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 8:58 am
by Sonic Youth
Social Network seems to have taken a tumble. The King's Speech just got fellated.
No Christopher Nolan for director. Congratulations to you lucky prognosticating few.
Were Steinfeld nominated in the proper category, "Blue Valentine" would have been one nomination short.
Looking forward to figuring out which of the five Best Picture nominees are the REAL nominees. Gotta go food shopping.