Oh, right. Well, I guess I've learned my lesson. :laugh:
I guess I should've known better, though. None of my friends went to see Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen either. By the way, I watched about 10 minutes of it the other day at Best Buy while I was finishing up my Christmas shopping, and from what I saw, it exceeded even my own expectations on how bad a movie like that can truly be. The second movie makes the original Transformers look like Citizen Kane by comparison.
2009 box-office Predix - Why not?
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Hollywood Z
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That's all, I just thought the comment about how your prediction seemed based on the tastes of the people you knew. Of course, I'm with you in that box office is a fickle thing to predict. For example, who would have thought an emo faux-vampire romance series with heavy Mormon religious overtones would have caught on like it has, let alone the disgusting amount of money that Transformers 2 has made.MovieWes wrote:Sherlock Holmes has flop written all over it. It won't make more than $25 million this weekend and will struggle to reach $70 million. I don't know a single person who wants to see it.
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MovieWes
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Hollywood Z wrote:MovieWes: Think you oughta rethink using your circle as a prognosticator for box office predictions?
I don't quite follow. I was wrong about this weekend. I've been wrong before. I'll be wrong again. I've never claimed to be an expert on box-office. And what circle are you referring to?
Although I will say this: a year and a half ago, I said that Avatar would give The Dark Knight a run for its money, and everybody called me crazy for making a prediction that far in advance. And now it's sitting not only on the 2nd biggest 2nd weekend in history (by less than $200,000), but it had the smallest drop ever for a movie that opened above $70 million. It dropped only 2.6% from last weekend to this weekend, and the actuals aren't even in yet.
Edited By MovieWes on 1261964835
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Franz Ferdinand
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To be fair, boxofficeprophets tends to be on the hyperbolic side of things, but early weekend estimates are:
1) Avatar, $75M (RIGHT behind Dark Knight's second weekend of $75.2M, though of course without DK's record-setting opening weekend)
2) Sherlock Holmes, $65.4M (second-biggest opener to not debut at #1, behind Day After Tomorrow)
3) Alvin 2, $50.2M (fourth-biggest opener to not debut at #1).
This gives Avatar a running total of $212.3M after 10 days, and is being tracked to reach $250M by Wednesday in 13 days. I'd say not a bad bit of business during the holidays, and I for one still haven't seen it yet.
1) Avatar, $75M (RIGHT behind Dark Knight's second weekend of $75.2M, though of course without DK's record-setting opening weekend)
2) Sherlock Holmes, $65.4M (second-biggest opener to not debut at #1, behind Day After Tomorrow)
3) Alvin 2, $50.2M (fourth-biggest opener to not debut at #1).
This gives Avatar a running total of $212.3M after 10 days, and is being tracked to reach $250M by Wednesday in 13 days. I'd say not a bad bit of business during the holidays, and I for one still haven't seen it yet.
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Friday Box Office Analysis
by Tim Briody (boxofficeprophets.com)
SHERLOCK HOLMES
Guy Ritchie and Robert Downey Jr.'s Sherlock Holmes is Christmas Day's biggest winner with $25.5 million, a Christmas Day record. The previous record holder was 2004's holiday smash Meet the Fockers with $19.5 million. (Hold that number in your head for a few minutes as we discuss some of the other films).
Christmas Day has not fallen on a Friday since 1998 when the box office was an entirely different beast. When we look at that weekend (led by Patch Adams earning $25.3 million, ha!) there are some notable themes to pull from that data that will be recurring through this column. The first one that applies here is that this weekend's multipliers are going to be ridiculously insane. The worst weekend multiplier a new film had in 1998 was The Faculty with 2.72. Remove that and next was Patch Adams with 3.1. (Just wait until we dig into the holdovers.) Yes, I'm using 11 year old numbers, but I'd wager that Sherlock Holmes has a weekend multiplier on the lower end of that range. Of all the new releases, it's the only one that's got any sort of fanboy draw here.
Either way, a "bad" multiplier still puts it up near the top of biggest December openings ever. The bigger numbers don't translate well to this older data so we're going to nudge down the multipliers a tad here but it's still shaping up to be something kind of magical. Using a 2.7 multiplier, that would give Sherlock Holmes a weekend of $68.8 million.
AVATAR
Now things get *really* interesting. James Cameron's Avatar finds itself in second on Friday with $24.3 million, now the 2nd biggest Christmas Day take ever. This number is down 9% from last week, but who really cares? It's actually got a chance now to beat last weekend's $77 million million opening and here's why: Remember I said 1998 was the last time Christmas fell on Friday? Well, the worst multiplier for a film that did not open that week was You've Got Mail with a 3.6. Avatar's multiplier last weekend was 2.87. It's officially a juggernaut, folks.
We're dealing with larger numbers here, of course (in 1998, Patch Adams' weekend take was as much as Sherlock Holmes made yesterday) but the general idea will still apply: this weekend is going to be pretty insane. Avatar is going to surpass Sherlock Holmes when the weekend estimates come in, the only question now is by how much.
Another amusing note here, even after being underestimated, Avatar missed the December opening record by just a few hundred thousand. It's going to beat I Am Legend with its second weekend. Give Avatar a weekend multiplier of 3.4 and that's a weekend of $82.6 million.
ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS
Avoiding the trap that befell some other sequels to children's films, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (sigh), earned $14.6 million on Christmas Day and had already taken in $41.4 million since its Wednesday release. It's already a big hit.
By the way, $14.6 million would be good for the second biggest Christmas Day ever if not for Sherlock Holmes and Avatar. Three of the top four Christmas Day box office earnings happening on a single day is remarkably impressive.
There's no accounting for taste and the sequel (not gonna do it again, sorry) has already been an established hit and it'll do gangbusters Saturday and Sunday as well even with the Wednesday opening. Give Alvin and the Chipmunks a three day weekend of $51.1 million which is a five day tally of $77.9 million.
If you've been playing along at home, yes, that's over $200 million for just the top three films. Just amazing, astounding stuff here, folks.
Edited By Franz Ferdinand on 1261931342
by Tim Briody (boxofficeprophets.com)
SHERLOCK HOLMES
Guy Ritchie and Robert Downey Jr.'s Sherlock Holmes is Christmas Day's biggest winner with $25.5 million, a Christmas Day record. The previous record holder was 2004's holiday smash Meet the Fockers with $19.5 million. (Hold that number in your head for a few minutes as we discuss some of the other films).
Christmas Day has not fallen on a Friday since 1998 when the box office was an entirely different beast. When we look at that weekend (led by Patch Adams earning $25.3 million, ha!) there are some notable themes to pull from that data that will be recurring through this column. The first one that applies here is that this weekend's multipliers are going to be ridiculously insane. The worst weekend multiplier a new film had in 1998 was The Faculty with 2.72. Remove that and next was Patch Adams with 3.1. (Just wait until we dig into the holdovers.) Yes, I'm using 11 year old numbers, but I'd wager that Sherlock Holmes has a weekend multiplier on the lower end of that range. Of all the new releases, it's the only one that's got any sort of fanboy draw here.
Either way, a "bad" multiplier still puts it up near the top of biggest December openings ever. The bigger numbers don't translate well to this older data so we're going to nudge down the multipliers a tad here but it's still shaping up to be something kind of magical. Using a 2.7 multiplier, that would give Sherlock Holmes a weekend of $68.8 million.
AVATAR
Now things get *really* interesting. James Cameron's Avatar finds itself in second on Friday with $24.3 million, now the 2nd biggest Christmas Day take ever. This number is down 9% from last week, but who really cares? It's actually got a chance now to beat last weekend's $77 million million opening and here's why: Remember I said 1998 was the last time Christmas fell on Friday? Well, the worst multiplier for a film that did not open that week was You've Got Mail with a 3.6. Avatar's multiplier last weekend was 2.87. It's officially a juggernaut, folks.
We're dealing with larger numbers here, of course (in 1998, Patch Adams' weekend take was as much as Sherlock Holmes made yesterday) but the general idea will still apply: this weekend is going to be pretty insane. Avatar is going to surpass Sherlock Holmes when the weekend estimates come in, the only question now is by how much.
Another amusing note here, even after being underestimated, Avatar missed the December opening record by just a few hundred thousand. It's going to beat I Am Legend with its second weekend. Give Avatar a weekend multiplier of 3.4 and that's a weekend of $82.6 million.
ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS
Avoiding the trap that befell some other sequels to children's films, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel (sigh), earned $14.6 million on Christmas Day and had already taken in $41.4 million since its Wednesday release. It's already a big hit.
By the way, $14.6 million would be good for the second biggest Christmas Day ever if not for Sherlock Holmes and Avatar. Three of the top four Christmas Day box office earnings happening on a single day is remarkably impressive.
There's no accounting for taste and the sequel (not gonna do it again, sorry) has already been an established hit and it'll do gangbusters Saturday and Sunday as well even with the Wednesday opening. Give Alvin and the Chipmunks a three day weekend of $51.1 million which is a five day tally of $77.9 million.
If you've been playing along at home, yes, that's over $200 million for just the top three films. Just amazing, astounding stuff here, folks.
Edited By Franz Ferdinand on 1261931342
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I do not celebrate Christmas, and do not take time off of work for the holiday week, so I forget about how this week is more like summer with people going to the movies during the day as well as night.Franz Ferdinand wrote:These two weeks of holiday box office usually always play like a Friday night for movies; $20M over five days for Avatar was a ridiculous notion even before we knew of its $16M Monday.MovieWes wrote:Well, it's pretty clear that it's going to make much more than $20 million during the weekdays. Its Monday total was $16.4 million, bringing its total up to $93.4 million. And box-office analysts are predicting that its going to add another $65-70 million over the Christmas weekend. It may surpass $200 million by next Monday.rolotomasi99 wrote:I guess it will make maybe $20 m this week, and $50 m over the weekend. By next week Monday it will have made $150 m.
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-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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MovieWes
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Wednesday's numbers. Alvin and the Chipmunks beat Avatar, but Avatar added another $16.5 million.
TITLE STUDIO SITES GROSS AVG TOTAL
1 ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE SQUEAKUEL Fox · 3656 · $19,000,000 · $5,197 · $19,000,000
2 AVATAR Fox · 3452 · $16,500,000 · $4,780 · $125,997,762
3 THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG Walt Disney · 3475 · $2,500,000 · $719 · $53,276,554
4 THE BLIND SIDE Warner Bros. · 3407 · $2,250,000 · $660 · $171,195,040
5 UP IN THE AIR Paramount · 1825 · $1,700,000 · $932 · $10,983,559
6 DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS? Sony · 2718 · $1,000,000 · $368 · $9,903,798
7 A CHRISTMAS CAROL Walt Disney · 2070 · $975,000 · $471 · $133,699,858
8 THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON Summit · 3035 · $900,000 · $297 · $277,520,062
9 INVICTUS Warner Bros. · 2125 · $800,000 · $376 · $18,261,526
10 BROTHERS Lionsgate · 2009 · $400,000 · $199 · $23,873,733
Edited By MovieWes on 1261677628
TITLE STUDIO SITES GROSS AVG TOTAL
1 ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE SQUEAKUEL Fox · 3656 · $19,000,000 · $5,197 · $19,000,000
2 AVATAR Fox · 3452 · $16,500,000 · $4,780 · $125,997,762
3 THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG Walt Disney · 3475 · $2,500,000 · $719 · $53,276,554
4 THE BLIND SIDE Warner Bros. · 3407 · $2,250,000 · $660 · $171,195,040
5 UP IN THE AIR Paramount · 1825 · $1,700,000 · $932 · $10,983,559
6 DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS? Sony · 2718 · $1,000,000 · $368 · $9,903,798
7 A CHRISTMAS CAROL Walt Disney · 2070 · $975,000 · $471 · $133,699,858
8 THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON Summit · 3035 · $900,000 · $297 · $277,520,062
9 INVICTUS Warner Bros. · 2125 · $800,000 · $376 · $18,261,526
10 BROTHERS Lionsgate · 2009 · $400,000 · $199 · $23,873,733
Edited By MovieWes on 1261677628
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)