New Developments III

[OscarGuy]

No. Any state where the Republicans out number the Democrats on the state supreme courts will not disqualify. I believe Minnesota has already decreed that he is not disqualified, so there are two states with differing results.

[taki15]

I doubt if the Supreme Court will uphold this ruling,

And it's not like he was gonna win Colorado anyway.

Sideshow.

That's a bizarre way to trivialize this case. In the unlikely scenario that SCOTUS lets the Colorado ruling stand then it's guaranteed that Trump will be disqualified from the other 49 states' ballots too.

[Sonic Youth]

I doubt if the Supreme Court will uphold this ruling,

And it's not like he was gonna win Colorado anyway.

Sideshow.

[gunnar]

I doubt if the Supreme Court will uphold this ruling, but it is interesting.

[Sabin]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics ... id=ios_app

Pretty big news. Has to be unprecedented, right?

[dws1982]

I saw excerpts from the most recent Republican Presidential debate on YouTube. These debates don't need moderators; they need kindergarten teachers.

I was in Tuscaloosa for a conference Tuesday and Wednesday, and when I say that debate inconvenienced every person in that town, I mean it. It was held in the building right beside the conference center I was in; the parking deck for the conference center had to be closed for 24+ hours, major roads in the middle of Tuscaloosa had to be shut down (and the University is right in the middle of the city). DeSantis' team was staying at the hotel I was at, or at least I assume they were: lots of big black SUV's with Florida tags were out there in the parking lot.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
I saw excerpts from the most recent Republican Presidential debate on YouTube. These debates don't need moderators; they need kindergarten teachers.

They also need the words "Presidential" Debate in quotation marks. Not for how un-Presidential they are but for what a kiddie table this is.

I'm reading a book called Birchers about the history of the JBS and it's just remarkable how much JBS BS tension this party still has -- and has been overtaken by.

[Greg]

I saw excerpts from the most recent Republican Presidential debate on YouTube. These debates don't need moderators; they need kindergarten teachers.

[OscarGuy]

and it would be "backed by the Koch Brother" since one of them is dead...we can only hope the other kicks the bucket soon and their children aren't giant penises like Trump's kids are.

[Sabin]

Bog wrote
Sherrod is just a flat out anomaly here ...and despite the look of my state...has the ability to hold his seat potentially with ease.
Yes it was midterms, but he doubled up on the blue guys running for the house in 2018. Trump also has enormous edges in polling right now v. Biden (while Joe beats all the other 4), but Brown trucks right along. Without fully studying the map...I'm not sure there's another case like this guy and it sure DOES continually blow my mind as we delve further and further into dark redness...

Ohioan "pubs" (of a certain age) don't seem eager to run to the polls other than to emphatically vote Trump....allowing abortion/marijuana to FLYYY through with ease, as well as (like Sabin mentioned) the sheer odiousness of the contenders:
Moreno is FULL on Trumping his campaign and Frank LaRose is the guy EVERYONE now knows was behind the attempt to further ban abortions on this last ballot. Dolan is the only sensible Voinovich-esque candidate that could challenge Sherrod...and he won't come close to making it out of the primary.....fucked up world we live inside of 2023/2024.

Okay, so this last point was my question. How much do Ohioans know about LaRose's efforts? If they do (as you're saying), then he's fucked. I assumed LaRose had the nomination in the bag and Brown has a normy appeal that seems pretty genuine.

Here's what I'm wondering though: is that going to work when Trump is on the top of the ticket and he backs LaRose? Trump usually over-performs when he's at the top of the ticket.

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
Billionaire Charles Koch is backing Nikki Haley.

I saw this earlier and wondered if this was a big deal. I'm sure Charles Koch has backed a ton of people who didn't end up winning the nomination in the past. I could see a world where calling Nikki Haley "backed by the Koch Brothers" as an epithet. But it is a big deal because it indicates a lack of faith towards Ron DeSantis, who still has higher approval in the Republican field than Haley. It really is remarkable how so many times on the Republican side there's always some jerk governor who either runs or almost runs and completely implodes.

Speaking of which, it's unclear if Chris Christie will make the threshold for the next debate. If he doesn't, he has to drop out, right? I have to imagine the vast majority of Christie's appeal in 2023 is transferable to Haley, which should push her to... y'know, losing to Trump in every state.

[Bog]

OscarGuy wrote
While it was nice to have the occasional vote of Joe Manchin, I think it's probably better to rip the band-aid off now rather than in November next year. Maybe we can get another Democrat who won't completely whiff the state. That said, This puts enormous pressure on Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego to win their contests. If we could pick off Rick Scott or Ted Cruz, that would help, but we're defending more than they are and in unfriendly territory, so things could get dicey.

This is the revenge of the 2018 map, a midterm in which we generally over-performed but still lost seats in the Senate. Our biggest hope has to be abortion on the ballot, Chuck Schumer's strength as a fundraiser and organizer, the lack of popularity of their opponents (Brown's seat should be gone as well but he's running against a uniquely unpopular opponent), and the lack of organization on McConnell's end, however long he remains the Senate Majority Leader.

Sherrod is just a flat out anomaly here ...and despite the look of my state...has the ability to hold his seat potentially with ease.
Yes it was midterms, but he doubled up on the blue guys running for the house in 2018. Trump also has enormous edges in polling right now v. Biden (while Joe beats all the other 4), but Brown trucks right along. Without fully studying the map...I'm not sure there's another case like this guy and it sure DOES continually blow my mind as we delve further and further into dark redness...

Ohioan "pubs" (of a certain age) don't seem eager to run to the polls other than to emphatically vote Trump....allowing abortion/marijuana to FLYYY through with ease, as well as (like Sabin mentioned) the sheer odiousness of the contenders:
Moreno is FULL on Trumping his campaign and Frank LaRose is the guy EVERYONE now knows was behind the attempt to further ban abortions on this last ballot. Dolan is the only sensible Voinovich-esque candidate that could challenge Sherrod...and he won't come close to making it out of the primary.....fucked up world we live inside of 2023/2024.

[Greg]

Billionaire Charles Koch is backing Nikki Haley.

[Greg]

U.S., Israel and Hamas reach tentative deal to pause conflict and free dozens of hostages- WaPo:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 023-11-19/

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
While it was nice to have the occasional vote of Joe Manchin, I think it's probably better to rip the band-aid off now rather than in November next year. Maybe we can get another Democrat who won't completely whiff the state. That said, This puts enormous pressure on Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Tammy Baldwin, Jacky Rosen, Elissa Slotkin, and Ruben Gallego to win their contests. If we could pick off Rick Scott or Ted Cruz, that would help, but we're defending more than they are and in unfriendly territory, so things could get dicey.

This is the revenge of the 2018 map, a midterm in which we generally over-performed but still lost seats in the Senate. Our biggest hope has to be abortion on the ballot, Chuck Schumer's strength as a fundraiser and organizer, the lack of popularity of their opponents (Brown's seat should be gone as well but he's running against a uniquely unpopular opponent), and the lack of organization on McConnell's end, however long he remains the Senate Majority Leader.

I think Rick Scott is possible to knock out (though unlikely) depending on who's running against him. That said, it's so frustrating that when all is said and done, the best we can possibly get is 50 seats plus our two independents. Senate math is bullshit.