2008 Election Results Discussion: Senate
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Mister Tee
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Nice quote from AP:
And Mister Tee, Oscar Guy is right. Missouri and Rhode Island were not considered longshots in 2006. The Democrats were slightly favored in those races, while Virginia and Montana were toss-ups.
Democrats were optimistic that the only two Democratic senators who will lose their Senate seats as a result of the national elections will be Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
And Mister Tee, Oscar Guy is right. Missouri and Rhode Island were not considered longshots in 2006. The Democrats were slightly favored in those races, while Virginia and Montana were toss-ups.
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OscarGuy
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Let me amend something you said, Tee. I'm from Missouri, so let me just point out that Missouri in 2006 was hardly dubious-to-longshot. It was a very tight, close race all the way up to election day. Never once did it seem like it was going to stay Republican, most people in the state saw it as a real horse race with Dems the eventual winner.
And, it's quite possible that if Kit Bond DOES retire for the 2010 race, then we could be electing another Democrat to the seat if Robin Carnahan does, indeed, run.
Missouri has always been a strange balance of Republican and Democrat and while it has slid slowly Republican in its makeup, we have been notable not only for our Presidential election accuracy, but the fluid nature of our Gubernatorial races. When you have the likes of John Ashcroft and Kit Bond and then have the opposite spectrum of Mel Carnahan and Bob Holden (though this latter we would rather forget), it's clear Missouri is a shifting state.
And, it's quite possible that if Kit Bond DOES retire for the 2010 race, then we could be electing another Democrat to the seat if Robin Carnahan does, indeed, run.
Missouri has always been a strange balance of Republican and Democrat and while it has slid slowly Republican in its makeup, we have been notable not only for our Presidential election accuracy, but the fluid nature of our Gubernatorial races. When you have the likes of John Ashcroft and Kit Bond and then have the opposite spectrum of Mel Carnahan and Bob Holden (though this latter we would rather forget), it's clear Missouri is a shifting state.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Mister Tee
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Just a quick preview before results start coming in:
It's instructive to remember how far we've come in expectations this years. Early on, it was widely expected Mark Warner would win the open VA seat. It also soon became clear Udall would take the open NM one, and that Shaheen had an advantage in the NH rematch. But the rest has been amazingly fluid: a seemingly competitive CO seat has been essentially conceded by the GOP; Ted Stevens' well-timed problems have made AK a strong turnover hope; the OR race, which looked competitive-to-uphill, has been all Merkley for weeks; and Elizabeth Dole has seemingly melted down in NC. Of the top-tier races, the Franken/Coleman face-off is the only one that appears close.
Consider: going into Election Day two years ago, only the PA and OH races seemed solidly Dem-leaning. RI, MO, MT, VA and the ultimately not-won TN were all in the dubious-to-longshot category. And that's where we now see GA, KY and MS. Given the apparent excitement and turnout, it's possible we'll see another wave that brings all Dems home. Maybe even a race or two no one's looked at can join them -- jostled by Dem turnout and GOP stay-homes.
It's odd, but we're to the point where a Dem pick-up of seven seats would be almost a disappointing outcome.
It's instructive to remember how far we've come in expectations this years. Early on, it was widely expected Mark Warner would win the open VA seat. It also soon became clear Udall would take the open NM one, and that Shaheen had an advantage in the NH rematch. But the rest has been amazingly fluid: a seemingly competitive CO seat has been essentially conceded by the GOP; Ted Stevens' well-timed problems have made AK a strong turnover hope; the OR race, which looked competitive-to-uphill, has been all Merkley for weeks; and Elizabeth Dole has seemingly melted down in NC. Of the top-tier races, the Franken/Coleman face-off is the only one that appears close.
Consider: going into Election Day two years ago, only the PA and OH races seemed solidly Dem-leaning. RI, MO, MT, VA and the ultimately not-won TN were all in the dubious-to-longshot category. And that's where we now see GA, KY and MS. Given the apparent excitement and turnout, it's possible we'll see another wave that brings all Dems home. Maybe even a race or two no one's looked at can join them -- jostled by Dem turnout and GOP stay-homes.
It's odd, but we're to the point where a Dem pick-up of seven seats would be almost a disappointing outcome.