The 2008 Fall Campaign

[Big Magilla]

Biden is Democratic favorite for Obama's No. 2

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer 43 minutes ago

CHICAGO - Sen. Joe Biden has emerged as the clear favorite among Democrats to be Barack Obama's running mate for his understanding of foreign policy in grave global times and his fighting spirit against the rival Republican ticket.
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Obama is keeping his decision quiet, but his staff in Chicago and party activists who await a decision are buzzing about Biden in large part because he can address two of Obama's biggest weaknesses — his lack of experience, especially on world affairs, and his reluctance to go on the attack. The speculation among Democrats is less of an indicator of whether Biden will ultimately be Obama's pick, and more of a recognition of the challenges their candidate faces at this pivotal moment in the race.

Obama plans to appear with his newly selected running mate Saturday, with the pick announced via text message to supporters. Obama also is widely thought to be considering Govs. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Tim Kaine of Virginia, and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.

Biden was first elected to represent Delaware in 1972, when Obama was 11 years old and half the people living in the United States today weren't born yet. He is a curious front-runner for running mate for a candidate who won the primary by arguing he would be a fresh outsider who could bring change to Washington.

Biden is a charismatic and hard-charging campaigner with a compelling personal story — his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident a few weeks after he was first elected, but two sons survived serious injuries in the same crash. Biden commuted home to Wilmington from each day in the Senate to care for them, a practice he still continues to this day. The oldest son, Beau, is now Delaware's attorney general and a National Guard member whose unit is being deployed to Iraq in October.

Biden got another scare 10 years ago, when two brain aneurysms kept him out of the Senate for several months.

Biden returned Monday from a trip to Georgia at the invitation of the embattled country's president, a well-timed reminder of the value he could bring to Obama's ticket.

Fighting between Georgia and Russia has only increased the sense that Americans will turn to a leader who will be a strong international leader. McCain brings a military background and leadership on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Obama only has served three years in Washington, but Biden is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that he has served on for 33 years.

Also, polls show the race between Obama and GOP rival John McCain tightening, and Obama is responding by stepping up his attacks in speeches and commercials targeted to key states. Obama has never been entirely comfortable going negative, a move that threatens his call for civility in politics, but Biden has never shied from a fight.

"He's passionate, he's articulate and he's persuasive," said Democratic consultant Steve McMahon, among those who consider Biden Obama's smartest pick. "I think he would do for Senator Obama what Lyndon Johnson did for John Kennedy. He's got serious foreign policy experience, a long and distinguished Senate resume and he is one of the most effective surrogates that Senator Obama has right now who can go toe-to-toe with any Republican on any issue at any time."

Obama could have been describing Biden when he said in a speech Tuesday that he wants his running mate to be "somebody who is mad right now" about the state of the economy, an independent who will speak out when he's wrong and help him through major issues.

During the Democratic primary when he also ran for the presidential nomination, Biden often made the most memorable impression in debates even though he was barely registering in the polls. He got big laughs for accusing Republican candidate Rudy Giuliani for mentioning three things in every sentence — "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" — and also leveled barbs at Obama.

He said he didn't think Obama was ready to be president yet, saying it's "not something that lends itself to on-the-job training." He offended some blacks when on the first day as an official presidential candidate he tried to compliment Obama as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean." He dropped out of the race after a poor showing in Iowa.

Republicans would be sure to revive Biden's criticisms of Obama and already envision a line of attack that says Obama is so inexperienced he needs a running mate who has been in Washington longer than McCain.

Biden is famous for being able to talk at length — sometimes a mind-numbing length — on any topic, but he has enhanced his standing in the vice presidential race by avoiding discussion of it.

Obama's running mate contenders have been instructed to be mum — a trait that is not considered Biden's strong suit. But he has played by Obama's rules, denying that he was being vetted when he most likely was. He bluntly acknowledged he'd take the job if asked, while jokingly warning Obama might not want him.

"I made it clear to him and everybody else, I never worked for anybody in my life," he told reporters last month. "I got here when I was 29. I never had a boss. I don't know how I'd handle it."

He gave nothing away Wednesday, as reporters staked out his home in anticipation of the pick. The senator took a load of brush in the bed of a white Ford pickup truck to the dump. He returned about 2 1/2 hours later, saying he was going to be working on his property throughout the day and would have no further comment.

[criddic3]

Well, you can't blame them Mister Tee.

When even cool-headed analysts like Josh Marshall are starting to panic and are all but writing the Obama November obits, what do you expect from simple people?

In TPM especially they are convinced that the ''celebrity'' ads have fatally wounded Obama.

Josh is, as you say, bright, but he exists in the DC media zone -- he may be critical of certain elements and actions, but he accepts most of their premises. And the chief of these premises is: polls are not simply good measures of where a political race is at the end (which is quantifiable); we must assume that, at every moment, it is telling us an absolute truth about how the election is going/will go.

Which is nonsense. Dukakis' famous 17-point lead in July is reason enough to dismiss the notion, but there are plenty of others. In April/May 1992, Clinton trailed Bush by 17 points; in July, after the convention, he led Bush by 30. There aren't enough events in a century to effect that big a swing in voter sentiment -- half the population -- if it had any firm basis in reality. The fact is, lots of polls are meaningless air. When we get to late September/early October, they'll start to have some discernible correlation with the reality of the outcome --though not necessarily; Reagan trailed Carter till the final fortnight (some in the press believe, ludicrously, that it only turned around because Reagan said "There you go again"). To not only trust polls implicitly -- as everyone in the press is doing now -- but to assume We Know Why The Numbers Are Turning (It's the celebrity ad! It's the Georgia incursion! It's because he's dissing Hillary!) is so silly that you can't believe grown-ups are purveying it as undeniable fact.

And, of course, even for those of us who believe we know better, it's hard to avoid what Freud called the emotional contagion of everyone running around screaming.

Susan Estrich has an article today about this very thing. The polls don't necessarily tell us how things will turn out. Of course as a Democrat, she wants to reassure her crowd not to panick. But she is smart enough to know that Obama is having trouble "making the sale." McCain, as she says, is "running ahead of the generic Republican."

His performance in the recent Saddleback forum has helped him, and I think will continue to help him fend off the almost assured Obama-convention bounce. I think Republicans will come out to vote for McCain, as will many independents, largely as a result of his performance that night. That wasn't something I was sure of until I saw how both candidates did. There is a bit more enthusiasm for McCain now than before. He seems to a little more at ease with his position in the race.

I think it will be close no matter who wins, but McCain clearly can win it.

__

I think a good example of a race that seemed sure was 1976, when Gerald Ford climbed out of a 30 point deficit to only lose by 2 percent. And that was with Carter in the lead throughout. McCain is running neck-and-neck with Obama almost the entire race. That may mean he'll win, or it may mean he'll lose by a small margin. But I think Estrich has it right when she talks about the generics versus the specific candidates.

--

Unless McCain suddenly learns how to debate, I see the back-and-forth continuing until the debates when Obama should wipe the floor with him.

--Oscarguy

Yeah that worked so well for John Kerry, who was seen as the winner in the debates of 2004. And I wouldn't count on McCain being a disaster in the debates. Remember that Obama was not particularly good in that forum during the primary season. His strong suit is the teleprompter speeches he makes.



Edited By criddic3 on 1219274695

[Mister Tee]

if McCain DOESN'T lead post-Minneapolis

St. Paul :;):

Aren't they the same?

(Utterly provincial comment)

[Eric]

if McCain DOESN'T lead post-Minneapolis

St. Paul :;):

[flipp525]

Can we also start looking forward to that ace in the pocket -- the much-rumored Cindy McCain sex tape -- to finally surface?

[Mister Tee]

Well, you can't blame them Mister Tee.

When even cool-headed analysts like Josh Marshall are starting to panic and are all but writing the Obama November obits, what do you expect from simple people?

In TPM especially they are convinced that the ''celebrity'' ads have fatally wounded Obama.

Josh is, as you say, bright, but he exists in the DC media zone -- he may be critical of certain elements and actions, but he accepts most of their premises. And the chief of these premises is: polls are not simply good measures of where a political race is at the end (which is quantifiable); we must assume that, at every moment, it is telling us an absolute truth about how the election is going/will go.

Which is nonsense. Dukakis' famous 17-point lead in July is reason enough to dismiss the notion, but there are plenty of others. In April/May 1992, Clinton trailed Bush by 17 points; in July, after the convention, he led Bush by 30. There aren't enough events in a century to effect that big a swing in voter sentiment -- half the population -- if it had any firm basis in reality. The fact is, lots of polls are meaningless air. When we get to late September/early October, they'll start to have some discernible correlation with the reality of the outcome --though not necessarily; Reagan trailed Carter till the final fortnight (some in the press believe, ludicrously, that it only turned around because Reagan said "There you go again"). To not only trust polls implicitly -- as everyone in the press is doing now -- but to assume We Know Why The Numbers Are Turning (It's the celebrity ad! It's the Georgia incursion! It's because he's dissing Hillary!) is so silly that you can't believe grown-ups are purveying it as undeniable fact.

And, of course, even for those of us who believe we know better, it's hard to avoid what Freud called the emotional contagion of everyone running around screaming.

[Damien]

In addition to all of Tee's excellent points, it's important to note that Zogby has long been discredited as the least accurate polling organization. Obama remains ahead in the latest Gallup, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac, as well as maintaining a wide lead in the Electoral College..

And Obama has just begun airing attack ads against McCain, which the NY Times described as "sustained and hard-hitting."

[taki15]

Well, you can't blame them Mister Tee.

When even cool-headed analysts like Josh Marshall are starting to panic and are all but writing the Obama November obits, what do you expect from simple people?

In TPM especially they are convinced that the ''celebrity'' ads have fatally wounded Obama.

[Mister Tee]

We are now entering what will be the most fatuously-covered segment of the entire campaign -- and given how poor the coverage has been to date, that's saying alot.

This Zogby poll is the perfect lead-in: a poll wildly out of sync with everything else that's been released even this week, but, since it allows pundits to squeal "Omigod-it's-such-a-close-race/you-can't-change-the-channel!", it will be trumpeted as loudly as Michael Phelps' eight golds.

Then we'll have the conventions, which historically make polling numbers move around with little relation to ultimate November results (Mondale was within a few points of Reagan after his '84 convention; Carter was 10 points AHEAD of Reagan after his). This year, since the gatherings come back-to-back, we'll further hear, Did Obama get enough of a bump? Is McCain squelching Barack's bounce? I actually heard Jeff Greenfield ponder this the other night, as if it mattered a damn. As I said, Carter got his "bounce" in 1980. Did it help any in the end? Not a bit.

We'll also be hearing ludicrous claims about what each candidate's VP choice can do for the ticket -- Ridge would put Pennsylvania in play! Romney would swing Michigan! (Because, you know, his father was governor back when I Dream of Jeannie was on the air) Despite historians' long-held contention that vice-presidential choices have, with the possible exception of LBJ 1960, never meant one thing to an election outcome.

It's all, as Harry Truman once said of the primaries, eyewash...though our pundits will inform us that what we're seeing at each juncture could literally determine the election (forgetting about the 15 things they'd previously told us would be decisive). And they'll back it up with ever-more-frequent polling samples. Polling this year has been so non-stop it feels like it's being done by the Verizon "Can you hear me NOW?" guy. The more information we get, the less we know.

Here's my rough expectation for the next two weeks: Pundits will describe Obama as desperately needing a great convention, to offset McCain's "surging" campaign (which hasn't broken 45% once all year). They'll also do everything they can to suggest Bill and Hillary are either sabotaging Obama, or taking over the convention. Whatever happens to Obama's poll numbers at week's end, they will be described as not matching where he SHOULD be polling. The GOP confab will then be treated as an absolute love-fest (conveniently keeping Bush and Cheney as hidden as possible). And if McCain takes even a small post-convention poll lead -- a more than likely outcome, as in 1980 (if McCain DOESN'T lead post-Minneapolis, he's going to lose really badly) -- you'll see as universal story-line: The Democrats are Blowing the Easiest Election in History/The Party's a Bunch of Candy-Ass Losers. And this narrative will continue even if/when Obama retakes the lead a week or so hence.

It will require exceptional focus to tune out all this nonsense (I recommend re-reading Kipling's "If"), but I strongly urge you do that. In the end, the election will, like all others, turn on fundamentals. The fundamentals for the GOP remain among the worst in the last century (and aren't likely to get better, as the economy continues southward); Obama will win by a comfortable margin.

But maybe some are convinced otherwise by the media hysteria. Anyone cares to bet me, I'm willing.

[OscarGuy]

Unless McCain suddenly learns how to debate, I see the back-and-forth continuing until the debates when Obama should wipe the floor with him.

[Big Magilla]

McCain takes lead over Obama: poll

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent Wed Aug 20, 8:25 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
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McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views.

"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon.

Obama had opposed new offshore drilling, but said recently he would support a limited expansion as part of a comprehensive energy program.

That was one of several recent policy shifts for Obama, as he positions himself for the general election battle. But Zogby said the changes could be taking a toll on Obama's support, particularly among Democrats and self-described liberals.

"That hairline difference between nuance and what appears to be flip-flopping is hurting him with liberal voters," Zogby said.

Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

OBAMA NEEDS TO WORK ON BASE

"Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

"There were no wild swings, there isn't one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.

Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters.

"Those are not the numbers Obama needs to win," Zogby said about Americans under 30. The 47-year-old is counting on a strong turnout among young voters, a key bloc of support during his primary battle with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

It made little difference when independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, who are both trying to add their names to state ballots.

McCain still held a 5-point edge over Obama, 44 percent to 39 percent, when all four names were included. Barr earned 3 percent and Nader 2 percent.

Most national polls have given Obama a narrow lead over McCain throughout the summer. In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point lead in June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination, and an 8-point lead on McCain in May.

The telephone poll of 1,089 likely voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The poll was taken as both candidates head into their nominating conventions and the announcements of their choices of vice presidential picks. The Democratic convention begins on Monday in Denver, with the Republican convention opening the next Monday, September 1, in St. Paul, Minnesota.

[kaytodd]

I signed up to receive a text message.

You are right Oscarguy. I will receive a text message. Shows how tech savvy I am.

[OscarGuy]

I signed up to receive a text message.

[kaytodd]

I might be late with this, but according to Matt Drudge, Obama will begin e-mailing as early as Tuesday( tomorrow) in order to sign up a VP.

I'm signed up to get an e-mail. I think it will be cool if he waits until I get to work to send them out and I can dramatically announce to my co-workers "Obama is e-mailing me!" :p

[OscarGuy]

Wouldn't it just be a shocker if he actually did what Bushie did in 2000? Take one of his vetters and put him in the position? Caroline Kennedy would certainly be an interesting choice.