Our Voting Experiences

[taki15]

I have a theory that Democrats dominate among early voters because early voters skew towards first-time voters, as many people who have a history of voting would vote specifically on election day as a force of habit. What we will need to look at to see if Obama is going to have a big advantage is not the exit polls of early voters; but, how many early voters there are in 2008 versus 2004.

Actually not, as Nate Silver mentioned at his site:

According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.

[OscarGuy]

I vote on election day for one real reason. It's a great feeling. Standing in line with other folks and embracing the electoral process in a meaningful way. It's the experience...

[Greg]

I expect that a lot of McCain voters will not vote early, while many Obama supporters will. That will make it seem lopsided for a while. But that isn't necessarily an indication of where the election will end up, despite the obvious lead Obama has right now.

I have a theory that Democrats dominate among early voters because early voters skew towards first-time voters, as many people who have a history of voting would vote specifically on election day as a force of habit. What we will need to look at to see if Obama is going to have a big advantage is not the exit polls of early voters; but, how many early voters there are in 2008 versus 2004.



Edited By Greg on 1224542602

[criddic3]

I'm starting a thread to list our experiences when we vote.


I voted early at lunch today. This is the first day of two weeks of early voting in Florida. Volusia County went narrowly for Kerry in 2004; but, the western region of the county where I live went narrowly for Bush. There were about 50 people in line ahead of me. We picked numbers from a machine and our numbers were called when a poll worker was ready for us. I saw several people with Obama/Biden shirts and signs; but, none for McCain/Palin. The voting was optical scanning, where we would use a black-ink pen to fill in bubbles on a large paper sheet. Then, we would feed the sheet into a machine to read.

I voted for Obama and, as there were only three partisan races for me, a straight Democratic ticket. The big non-partisan race was for elections supervisor; and, I voted for someone named Susan Pynchon who has made a big issue out of making sure all voting has paper trails. The two big constitutional amendments for me were #1, which would repeal an obsolete 1926 amendment that barred asians from owning real estate, which I voted for; and, #2, an anti-gay-marriage amendment, which I voted against.

I expect that a lot of McCain voters will not vote early, while many Obama supporters will. That will make it seem lopsided for a while. But that isn't necessarily an indication of where the election will end up, despite the obvious lead Obama has right now.

[Greg]

I'm starting a thread to list our experiences when we vote.


I voted early at lunch today. This is the first day of two weeks of early voting in Florida. Volusia County went narrowly for Kerry in 2004; but, the western region of the county where I live went narrowly for Bush. There were about 50 people in line ahead of me. We picked numbers from a machine and our numbers were called when a poll worker was ready for us. I saw several people with Obama/Biden shirts and signs; but, none for McCain/Palin. The voting was optical scanning, where we would use a black-ink pen to fill in bubbles on a large paper sheet. Then, we would feed the sheet into a machine to read.

I voted for Obama and, as there were only three partisan races for me, a straight Democratic ticket. The big non-partisan race was for elections supervisor; and, I voted for someone named Susan Pynchon who has made a big issue out of making sure all voting has paper trails. The two big constitutional amendments for me were #1, which would repeal an obsolete 1926 amendment that barred asians from owning real estate, which I voted for; and, #2, an anti-gay-marriage amendment, which I voted against.



Edited By Greg on 1224535662