2008 Polling

[criddic3]

So, there's some great news coming out of Missouri, which points to Missouri's continuance as a bellwether state.

Survey USA: M: 48, O: 46 +2 McCain
Post-Dispatch/2000: M: 47, O: 46: +1 McCain

This is a change from the +10 McCain back in Mid-August and the +5 McCain results from early September.

Of course, Obama also is having trouble keeping good numbers in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Ohio. If McCain keeps Ohio and Florida in his column and manages to switch Pennsylvannia (a real possibility), he wins.

Well, McCain's having a problem keeping both Virginia and North Carolina, so don't start counting your Republican chickens before they've hatched...

IN the RCP averages, Obama is up 1.3% in Virginia, but McCain is up 3.2% in North Carolina.

So, North Carolina carries 15 electoral votes and Virginia 13. Pennsylvannia carries 21.

Let's say McCain gets Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, while Obama gets NC and VA. McCain still wins. On the other hand, if Obama wins Pennsylvania he has a shot, but I believe he'll need either Ohio or Florida to win if that happens, since PA is already being counted as in his camp. Then again, right now RCP has Obama up 8 EV without any toss-up states. So McCain needs to flip something, like Minnesota (10 EVs) or Wisconsin (10), where Obama has weak support right now.

However, if he flips Pennsylvania, I'm telling you, I think he wins hands down. The triple play of Ohio, PA and FL would be overwhelming. Not saying it WILL happen, but there's a good chance of it if McCain can make his case in those areas. There are few ways for Obama to catch up with that, without flipping a few states of his own.

[Zahveed]

I'm a Republican because I was inspired by the leaders of the party from an early age. Reagan was President during most of my first ten years of life.

He was a grade B actor during all of my first ten years.

I was going to vote for Stephen Colbert. Maybe Jon Stewart will run one day.

[Big Magilla]

I'm a Republican because I was inspired by the leaders of the party from an early age. Reagan was President during most of my first ten years of life.

He was a grade B actor during all of my first ten years.

[Zahveed]

I'm a Republican because I was inspired by the leaders of the party from an early age. Reagan was President during most of my first ten years of life and I was coming of age during the 1992 election.

For the record Criddic, I wasn't ragging on you for being a Republican. I'm just optioning a theory behind the thought process of some middle American families.

[Greg]

Rasmussen now has Obama up by 5 points nationwide and in Virginia, with McCain ahead by only 1 point in Florida and Ohio.

http://rasmussenreports.com

[OscarGuy]

So, there's some great news coming out of Missouri, which points to Missouri's continuance as a bellwether state.

Survey USA: M: 48, O: 46 +2 McCain
Post-Dispatch/2000: M: 47, O: 46: +1 McCain

This is a change from the +10 McCain back in Mid-August and the +5 McCain results from early September.

Of course, Obama also is having trouble keeping good numbers in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Ohio. If McCain keeps Ohio and Florida in his column and manages to switch Pennsylvannia (a real possibility), he wins.

Well, McCain's having a problem keeping both Virginia and North Carolina, so don't start counting your Republican chickens before they've hatched...

[criddic3]

My in-laws live in a small middle American mining town, the majority of the town is racist and homophobic, and a large portion are either Catholic or Lutheran. They're voting for McCain.

Both sets of my parents are middle American, my stepfather hunts and fishes, they all have their racial and homophobic tendencies and they are all Baptist. They're voting for McCain.

All these people have good qualities of course, and I love them to death, but television and the internet isn't going to change someone's way of life just like that. It's environmental. It's the people you're around and most of all, it all depends on how you're wired. Some people can be open minded to televised news, but like certain people who stick with vinyl records instead of mp3s, there are those that close their mind to an environment their uncomfortable with. An environment that scares them, all because it's different.

Coffee?

A very good reply to a writer whose environment may have been similar to that of your town. But he lives in Long Island not a small mining town. And it is hard to understand how criddic can be so die-hard Republican when he is exposed and potentially open-minded to all the novelties of our age and still not see the truth. Is Long Island a hot-bed of reactionaries?

Long Island is a big place and is not just a shoot-off of NYC. It is fairly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, especially in Suffolk County (where I'm from).

I'm a Republican because I was inspired by the leaders of the party from an early age. Reagan was President during most of my first ten years of life and I was coming of age during the 1992 election.



Edited By criddic3 on 1222455024

[criddic3]

So, there's some great news coming out of Missouri, which points to Missouri's continuance as a bellwether state.

Survey USA: M: 48, O: 46 +2 McCain
Post-Dispatch/2000: M: 47, O: 46: +1 McCain

This is a change from the +10 McCain back in Mid-August and the +5 McCain results from early September.

Of course, Obama also is having trouble keeping good numbers in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Ohio. If McCain keeps Ohio and Florida in his column and manages to switch Pennsylvannia (a real possibility), he wins.

[OscarGuy]

So, there's some great news coming out of Missouri, which points to Missouri's continuance as a bellwether state.

Survey USA: M: 48, O: 46 +2 McCain
Post-Dispatch/2000: M: 47, O: 46: +1 McCain

This is a change from the +10 McCain back in Mid-August and the +5 McCain results from early September.

[Big Magilla]

Is Long Island a hot-bed of reactionaries?

No, it's basically a bedroom community for NYC workers. I grew up on Long Island in the 50s and 60s. From early childhood I had friends of every race, religion and non-religion.

I know blind racial prejudice exists though it's hard to fathom why. What I don't understand is how people can be so small-minded as to allow their prejudices to overwhelm their own self-interests.

[Penelope]

You've got to be taught
To hate and fear,
You've got to be taught
From year to year,
It's got to be drummed
In your dear little ear
You've got to be carefully taught.

You've got to be taught to be afraid
Of people whose eyes are oddly made,
And people whose skin is a diff'rent shade,
You've got to be carefully taught.

You've got to be taught before it's too late,
Before you are six or seven or eight,
To hate all the people your relatives hate,
You've got to be carefully taught!

[cam]

My in-laws live in a small middle American mining town, the majority of the town is racist and homophobic, and a large portion are either Catholic or Lutheran. They're voting for McCain.

Both sets of my parents are middle American, my stepfather hunts and fishes, they all have their racial and homophobic tendencies and they are all Baptist. They're voting for McCain.

All these people have good qualities of course, and I love them to death, but television and the internet isn't going to change someone's way of life just like that. It's environmental. It's the people you're around and most of all, it all depends on how you're wired. Some people can be open minded to televised news, but like certain people who stick with vinyl records instead of mp3s, there are those that close their mind to an environment their uncomfortable with. An environment that scares them, all because it's different.

Coffee?

A very good reply to a writer whose environment may have been similar to that of your town. But he lives in Long Island not a small mining town. And it is hard to understand how criddic can be so die-hard Republican when he is exposed and potentially open-minded to all the novelties of our age and still not see the truth. Is Long Island a hot-bed of reactionaries?

[Zahveed]

That is such an oversimplification that it is baffling. We, and they, don't live in the Stone Age. This is the 21st Century, with the internet and 24/7 Cable News. Most of these people understand that there are people out in the world who are different then them, and that they share similarities with those same people. You made the same mistake that many do, in assuming that because these Middle Americans hunt and fish and mine etc. that they are oblivious to the world around them. Just because they hold some values not shared by San Fransicans doesn't make them dumb or ignorant.

This is not to say that there isn't racism in some of these places. There is racism everywhere, if you look for it. But I reject the assumption that if a white person doesn't live and work side-by-side every day with a black person that he will necessarily be afraid if that were to change.

Now it is true that people can overreact to the things they do not fully understand. We have been talking on other threads about gay marraige. That is a good example. I think people have to be taught intolerance. I don't think it's a natural instinct to disciminate. Sometimes this teaching is direct and sometimes indirect, but I do not believe that people in this time are so clueless about the world around them that they "cling to guns and religion" as a way to confront people who are different from them for fear that they may encounter harm. I believe that most of these people accept these things in a more positive light. Hunting, fishing and religion have been around a long time, and not all the history associated to any of them is bad. When I think of guns and religion I do not immediately think of rascism and hatred, athough I think the old idea is true that it's not the guns that kill ...

Why my good sir, you are about as anal as the rest. I generalize to address a simple point, if I wanted to get into details I would write an essay and it wouldn't be posted on an online message board. Everyone is driven by basic instincts be it psychological, physiological, or sociological and they evolve slowly overtime. A child will reach out to grab something when it's frightened because the feeling is similar to falling. This is because humans used to have more hair and the infant would instinctively grab on to the hair to keep itself from falling. This is just theoretical of course, but the point is the same. It takes millions of years to evolve to a certain point and adapt to your surroundings. Television and the internet just arrived last century and you think we can dump our sociological habits as fast as a cast iron skillet? Of course, I am oversimplifying, so take your time to get over being baffled.

Here are some personal polls btw:

My in-laws live in a small middle American mining town, the majority of the town is racist and homophobic, and a large portion are either Catholic or Lutheran. They're voting for McCain.

Both sets of my parents are middle American, my stepfather hunts and fishes, they all have their racial and homophobic tendencies and they are all Baptist. They're voting for McCain.

All these people have good qualities of course, and I love them to death, but television and the internet isn't going to change someone's way of life just like that. It's environmental. It's the people you're around and most of all, it all depends on how you're wired. Some people can be open minded to televised news, but like certain people who stick with vinyl records instead of mp3s, there are those that close their mind to an environment their uncomfortable with. An environment that scares them, all because it's different.

Coffee?

[Eric]

Instead he portrayed them as people who are so downbeat that they become stupid and susceptible to brainwashing.

Given that nothing remotely resembling those words or sentiments ever emerged from Senator Obama's mouth, I think it's fair to say that criddic is fully in sync with the GOP strategy of being complete fucking liars.

100 percent.

[Mister Tee]

Instead he portrayed them as people who are so downbeat that they become stupid and susceptible to brainwashing.

Given that nothing remotely resembling those words or sentiments ever emerged from Senator Obama's mouth, I think it's fair to say that criddic is fully in sync with the GOP strategy of being complete fucking liars.