2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[rolotomasi99]

This is the final weekend of 2011. There is not a single new wide release, which is certainly good news for several films which have had less than stellar openings and need this weekend to find their audience. Other than MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4, Christmas weekend was pretty pathetic. The last time New Year’s Eve fell on a Saturday was 2005. There were no major releases on that weekend either, so almost all films saw a healthy boost from the previous weekend’s grosses. I assume MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4 will continue to stay at the top. WAR HORSE will definitely see a healthy rise since it opened on Sunday last weekend, and if the rising imdb score is any indication people are enjoying it.

The two films that are in the most need for a word-of-mouth bump are THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN and THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO. While I knew both of these films had issues to overcome, I was not expecting them to do so poorly right out of the gate. Both had strong reviews, some name recognition from their source material, and were helmed by famous directors with their own fanbase. It seems those who have seen these films enjoyed them, but if people are not open to checking them out then word-of-mouth is useless. I still think both can pass $100 m, but they are not going to be as big of hits as most people thought/hoped.

Also, unlike last year, we have not seen any art house film break out into the mainstream. From 2010, we had BLACK SWAN, THE FIGHTER, and of course THE KING’S SPEECH do far better than even the folks who made and released the film ever thought. While awards buzz certainly helped, all three of them had quite a bit of money before the Oscar nominations were even announced: $57 m for THE KING’S SPEECH, $73 m for THE FIGHTER, and $83 m for BLACK SWAN.

YOUNG ADULT and THE DESCENDANTS are the two films most people thought would find mainstream audiences, however neither one has seemed to click outside of the indie crowd. THE ARTIST and TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY are racking up huge per-screen grosses, but their potential for expanding outside of major metropolitan areas seem slim.

I do think THE IRON LADY has the potential to break out. With the Kennedy Center recently honoring her, Meryl Streep has been in the media quite a bit. At this point, everyone pretty much accepts she is one of the greatest actors (male or female) to ever live. People have always loved her, but she is now pretty much solidifying her status as a national treasure. I know several people who do not usually watch art house films who have heard about THE IRON LADY and want to see it. If Streep starts winning awards like the Guild, the Globes, and then the Oscar, I expect THE IRON LADY will do around $40 m.

The film whose box-office potential I will be most interested in observing is EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE. The reviews have been split from absolutely loving it to passionately hating it. I assume audiences will likewise be split. However, if the film is able to tap into the audience that made other schmaltzy feel-good films like THE BLIND SIDE and THE HELP such hits, than it does not matter how much other folks loathe it. It certainly will not hurt if the Academy embraces it, particularly for Best Picture.

[Sonic Youth]

I freely admit I'm not one of those people who hate to say "I told you so". In fact, I love saying "I told you so". It's a nasty flaw in my personality. But I'm working on it, I promise...

But I'll see Tintin. I'd rather see it than that other Spielberg movie, the one with that damn horse in it.

[rolotomasi99]

Well, THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN better hope for great word of mouth because it is not going to start off very strongly.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/t ... ice-276048

[Big Magilla]

I don't know. I don't pay much attention to box office, but it seems to me that a film like Tintin should have legs, maybe on DVD after it wins the Osar, maybe not.

I do know it's not opening in as many theatres as Mission Impossible 4 but more than Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and War Horse so distributers must have some expectations that it will do well. I also know that family films tend to do well at this time of year so I wouldn't count it out based on lack of atttendance at a midnight showing the week before Christmas.

[Sonic Youth]

Yes, I'm sure they were taken to Hugo also.

That's exactly my point, Magilla. If Columbia felt they had a movie that would generate enough interest to bring people in for a midnight screening - beyond the kiddies - and it didn't happen, then it's a sign that it may perform below expectations. I know what I'm telling you is anecdotal, but if it happened in one theater, what are the chances it didn't happen in others?

And Disney's previewed movies as midnight screenings, many times if I'm not mistaken. You want to bet the theaters were empty for Wall*E?

[Big Magilla]

What about parents and grandparents who brign the kids to theatres, but not at midnight?

Has Disney ever previewed a movie at midnight? I don't think so.

[Sonic Youth]

I have no idea how this will fare at the Box office, but for a film that is aimed primarily at kids, I doubt lack of attendance at a midnight showing is any kind of barometer.

Um... thank you for strengthening my arguement?

If the movie holds no appeal or attraction to anyone other than kids, then it's going to be a serious box office under-performer in this country.

[rolotomasi99]

I have no idea how this will fare at the Box office, but for a film that is aimed primarily at kids, I doubt lack of attendance at a midnight showing is any kind of barometer.

Exactly what I was thinking. I wonder which overpaid studio executive thought this movie would be filling theatres at midnight. Morons.

[Big Magilla]

I have no idea how this will fare at the Box office, but for a film that is aimed primarily at kids, I doubt lack of attendance at a midnight showing is any kind of barometer.

[Damien]

My wife - since childhood, a big Tintin fan - went with a friend to the Tintin 3D midnight sneak last night. They were the only ones in theater. That makes for a blissful moviegoing experience, but it's not a good omen for the film's box office.

An international legend, Tintin pretty much remains pretty much an unknown quality in the States. I got into him when I was about 10 because a local New York TV station started showing Tintin and I loved them -- would watch them every morning before going to school. There are stores in Paris -- and I assume other European cities -- devoted to Tintin memorabilia. I have a Tintin and/or Snowy keychain, sweatshirt, drinking glasses, t-shirts, statues, baseball cap.

The best hope for Spielberg and company is that potential audiences see Tintin like Indiana Jones when Raiders of the Lost Ark was released -- simply the hero of an action/adventure movie. Of course, the film has been a huge success already internationally, so it probably doesn't need to do all that del here. And unlike the Asterix movie, it at least is being released in America.

[Sonic Youth]

My wife - since childhood, a big Tintin fan - went with a friend to the Tintin 3D midnight sneak last night. They were the only ones in theater. That makes for a blissful moviegoing experience, but it's not a good omen for the film's box office.

[Dien]

The ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS trilogy is a response to all those folks who thought Pixar had permanently raised the bar for children’s films. Of course there would still be bad kids films, just like there are for any genre, but we hoped young folks and (more so) their parents would demand movies made for little kids could be intelligent, beautiful, and even emotional. Well, the incredible success of these stupid screeching rodents has shown how justified we are in thinking children do not deserve good movies. What really surprises me is how many parents are willing to subject themselves to this dreck. The two previous films have done pretty steady business. This one faces stiff competition in just a few days after its first weekend from THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, but it will still do well. A $40 m opening and $200 m total.

The delightful Alvin films are much more rewarding than any of the unwatchable crap that Pixar has shoveled out.

This is one thing that's always confused me, Damien. I stumbled upon the first film on TV one day and I had to turn it immediately. I'm pretty sure it shortened the battery life of the pocket watch tied to my existence.

[rolotomasi99]

We have finally come to the end of 2011, with the most crowded Christmas weekend I have ever seen. I know we have one more Friday and Saturday in 2011, but this is it for wide releases. Unfortunately, this is a bad Christmas weekend. While Christmas Day is great for the box-office (after everyone has opened presents the whole family goes to the movies), Christmas Eve is terrible (everyone is going to family dinners or last minute gift shopping/wrapping or just too stressed to go anywhere). Unfortunately for Hollywood, Christmas Eve falls on a Saturday. Saturdays are usually big for movies, but a Christmas Eve Saturday saps the whole holiday weekend of its potency. This explains why a variety of release dates will occur between Tuesday and Sunday. Usually I list the films according to how they will fall on the weekend box-office chart, but I figure it is best to just list them as they will be released.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO starts off this Christmas weekend. I have not read the books, but I saw the first film in the trilogy. I found it a horrifying experience, but it was competently made. The main female character is certainly unique, but the mystery itself was rather pedestrian. While I think the quickie remake was ridiculous, I do think Fincher is the perfect person to helm this dark film. I must say I am not sure why they kept it set in Sweden. Why remake a film immediately after the original and then keep the same setting? THE DEPARTED was a quickie remake of INFERNAL AFFAIRS, but at least it created its own identity by setting the film in Boston. This film could have easily been set in upstate New York for the scenes in the country and Manhattan for the scenes in the city. Plus, everyone seems to be doing bad Swedish accents, accept for Daniel Craig who is just doing an English accent. I know some fans of the book might object to the change, but this movie was made to appeal to a broader base. In addition to the foreign setting, the film itself will be a very unpleasant experience (as the brilliant trailer flat out promised). I have yet to read how graphic the two rapes are compared to the original, but I assume they will be a bit much for most audiences. Slicing someone to pieces or pumping them full of bullets is fine, but U.S. audiences are squeamish about rape. Still, this film is the most anticipated book adaptation of the year (tied with the final Harry Potter). While it has lots of competition this weekend, this film appeals to a very specific demographic. After the first weekend, the film will depend on word-of-mouth from those who are new to the whole Lisbeth Salander universe to gain a mainstream audience. By the end of Sunday, the film will have opened to $40 m on its way to a $120 m final tally.

Jeremy Renner was one of those actors you had seen in a movie without even realizing. After being the supporting guy in many films and TV, he finally burst into the lead in THE HURT LOCKER. He became a new star (who had been around for awhile) and an Oscar nominee. Next he stole the show from superstar Ben Affleck in THE TOWN (an earned another worthy Oscar nomination). Now Renner is ready to cash in on his new found star status, and he is doing it in a major way. In addition to the three major action films he co-stars in next year, as 2011 closes we have him taking the reins from Tom Cruise in MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4. I really wish they had just made this an original film, rather than the fourth entry in the tiresome MISSION IMPOSSIBLE series. Still, the reviews are surprisingly strong, with most of the praise going to director Brad Bird and Renner. The movie did very well in last weekend’s IMAX release, and will probably kick butt this weekend. From Wednesday to Sunday, the film will make around $50 m and a total around $200 m.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN is the type of movie which should be released on Christmas weekend. It is truly a film for the whole family. It has action, adventure, humor, and beauty (at least according to the reviews). It is an event film in the classic Spielberg sense. I figure this film will be huge, but how huge depends on whether audiences are finally willing to accept motion capture animation. The three biggest animated mo-cap releases have all come from Robert Zemeckis, but the most recent animated mo-cap release, MARS NEEDS MOM, is the biggest flop of 2011. I am sure Spielberg’s film will top all the Zemeckis films, but it still seems like Pixar-type animation would have been a better choice. From Wednesday to the end of the weekend, it will make around $50 m and then $200 m total.

Remember that time Cameron Crowe made that brilliant film ALMOST FAMOUS? The year was 2000, and I was astounded to see the man who wrote and directed JERRY MAGUIRE was capable of such subtlety and beauty. Well, all the good will he earned for making ALMOST FAMOUS waned after people saw his follow-up VANILLA SKY, and was completely obliterated when they were subjected to ELIZABETHTOWN. Finally, after six years of silence, Crowe has decided his comeback film will be a sickeningly sweet piece of treacle called WE BOUGHT A ZOO. All you really need to know about the film is in the title. The film also seems perfect for Christmas weekend. It has a standard weekend release, but the Christmas Eve Saturday will mute its opening box-office. I can see $15 m to start and $60 m in the end.

I do not celebrate Christmas, but this December 25th will be memorable to me simply because we will finally have a look at WAR HORSE. This film’s Oscar potential has been a mystery to most of us around here. Along with EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE, it is the last piece of the Best Picture puzzle. The film itself looks visually amazing, but almost old-fashioned in its earnestness. I think audiences will respond well to this film. Since it is not about the World War this country loves so much, it will not be as big a hit as SAVING PRIVATE RYAN. However, its PG-13 rating will allow it to hit all age demographics. Word of mouth and awards recognition will certainly determine its final gross, but Spielberg’s name alone will guarantee this will be a hit. Since it opens on Sunday it is not going to have a strong opening gross, though it will most likely be the highest grossing film on Christmas Day. Probably $15 m for its single day weekend, and then onto a $170 m final gross.

I have absolutely no idea why THE DARKEST HOUR is being released at the end of the year. Major releases do well around Christmas weekend and into the next year, and certainly art house films benefit from coming out during awards season. However, smaller sci-fi action films like this one do better in the beginning of the year. January 2012 is chock full of horror and smaller action films, so maybe they wanted to get ahead of the rush. Releasing it this weekend, though, is even worse since it might not even end up in the top 10 at the box-office. It would have made more sense to wait until next weekend, where at least it could have stood out as the final major release of 2011. Either way the movie will probably flop like CONAN THE BARBARIAN or PRIEST. It will make less than $5 m on Sunday, and maybe $20 m altogether.

[MovieWes]

Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks both had disappointing opening weekends of $40 and $23 million respectively, which is a surprise considering how well the last entries in both franchises did -- this is especially surprising for the Chipmunks because both the first and second entries were major hits. Both of these films need to show some major legs during the next few weeks if they hope to see their franchises continue. Either way, neither are going to hit $200 million. Sherlock Holmes will probably top out at about $180 million and Alvin and the Chipmunks will likely hit somewhere around $130 million. I think that maybe both of the last films benefited from sold out screenings of Avatar.

[Damien]

The ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS trilogy is a response to all those folks who thought Pixar had permanently raised the bar for children’s films. Of course there would still be bad kids films, just like there are for any genre, but we hoped young folks and (more so) their parents would demand movies made for little kids could be intelligent, beautiful, and even emotional. Well, the incredible success of these stupid screeching rodents has shown how justified we are in thinking children do not deserve good movies. What really surprises me is how many parents are willing to subject themselves to this dreck. The two previous films have done pretty steady business. This one faces stiff competition in just a few days after its first weekend from THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, but it will still do well. A $40 m opening and $200 m total.

The delightful Alvin films are much more rewarding than any of the unwatchable crap that Pixar has shoveled out.