2011 Box-Office Predictions - Where we follow the money

[Dien]

No insight. Basing my speculation on the final film frenzy, but I would much rather it tank hard.

[rolotomasi99]

I guess the film could not overcome how much fans hated that last book. Hopefully the second part will be an outright flop like MATRIX REVOLUTIONS.

Not happening.

Pt. 2 will break the record for biggest weekend opening. Our best bet to prevent this lies in Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises.

Do you have some insight into the minds of Twihards I should know about? From everything I read online fans were pretty disappointed in the last book. A co-worker who is a total Twihard confirmed this. The ladies who love this series really enjoyed the final fairytale wedding plus the romantic honeymoon. The murderous fetus and final battle was boring. If the first part of BREAKING DAWN, filled with all the stuff they wanted, could not beat NEW MOON's opening weekend, what makes you think the second part of BREAKING DAWN will? The 3D prices? The greater appeal to guys? The final film frenzy?

I certainly hope THE DARK KNIGHT RISES sets the new record for opening weekend. Do you think a $200 m weekend is possible? If it were in 3D, I would say absolutely, but without that price boost $180 m seems like the highest it can go. We shall see.

[Dien]

Deadline Hollywood: "Breaking Dawn" set for $139 million weekend

I guess the film could not overcome how much fans hated that last book. Hopefully the second part will be an outright flop like MATRIX REVOLUTIONS.

Not happening.

Pt. 2 will break the record for biggest weekend opening. Our best bet to prevent this lies in Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises.

[Sonic Youth]

Deadline Hollywood: "Breaking Dawn" set for $139 million weekend

I guess the film could not overcome how much fans hated that last book. Hopefully the second part will be an outright flop like MATRIX REVOLUTIONS.

Not happening.

[Dien]

Plus audience's fascination with penguins has long since passed.

[rolotomasi99]

Deadline Hollywood: "Breaking Dawn" set for $139 million weekend

I guess the film could not overcome how much fans hated that last book. Hopefully the second part will be an outright flop like MATRIX REVOLUTIONS.

Speaking of flops, holy shit is HAPPY FEET 2 bombing. Studios should take note, just because a film is a hit does not automatically mean people want a sequel.

[Sonic Youth]

Deadline Hollywood: "Breaking Dawn" set for $139 million weekend

[rolotomasi99]

Last weekend was just a preview for what will be the busiest holiday season for Hollywood ever. There are so many sequels, remakes, and adaptations you would think it was summer. This weekend is going to be huge, and the top two movies are going to make more this weekend then the all the other films this weekend combined.

As one huge book-to-movie series ends, another has its second-to-last release. It is interesting to note how both the penultimate movies of Harry Potter and Twilight feature weddings and not much action, while the last films feature huge battle sequences. Both made two films from the last book in the series and both final films are 3D. Of course, Harry Potter had a huge opening for the first part of THE DEATHLY HALLOWS, and the biggest opening ever for the second part. I think we might actually see the reverse for BREAKING DAWN. The book is supposedly the least favorite in the series for fans. While everyone was excited for the wedding and even more so for the honeymoon, the book apparently turns into a little bit ROSEMARY’S BABY and a little bit THE RETURN OF THE KING. This first part being released features all the stuff the Twihards love so much (romance and sex). Basically, this movie is going to be huge. It might very well be able to pass THE DARK KNIGHT’s opening weekend, though THE DEATHLY HALLOWS might be tough since it does not have the 3D bump. I predict a $160 m opening, and a $320 m total.

HAPPY FEET was a surprisingly lovely movie. The trailers made it seem so silly, but the film itself was fun, emotional, visually striking, and had an important message. It really did not need a sequel, but it made too much money for Hollywood to leave well enough alone. The first film actually had a relatively modest opening but built up its final gross through strong word of mouth. The other two big animated sequels of this year KUNG FU PANDA 2 and CARS 2 seriously disappointed at the box-office. Given how much competition HAPPY FEET 2 faces from the glut of kid films coming in the next few weeks, it will probably make less than its predecessor. I predict a $65 m opening and a $190 m total.

[rolotomasi99]

This weekend sees the first coming of the holiday crowd pleasers and Oscar bait films. Unlike last year’s underwhelming crop, this Thanksgiving/Christmas period is going to be huge. Actually it will have the most number of potential blockbuster releases I have ever seen during the winter period.

I have only seen a handful of Adam Sandler films (I mean the ones produced by him, not PUNCH-DRUNK LOVE), but apparently if you have seen one Sandler film you have seen them all. Which of course is what the idiot masses who made him a star want. They want to go to one of his movies and laugh for two hours at his man-child rage. Now Sandler is adding cross dressing to his limited repertoire. Men-in-dresses movies have done quite well with audiences for close to a century now. For whatever reason, men pretending to be women is hilarious, but women pretending to be men is not. Anyhoo, JACK AND JILL will do the typical Sandler opening and total, with $35 m and $140 m respectively.

I hated director Tarsem’s first film THE CELL. It was exquisitely gorgeous, but the writing and acting were terrible; and Tarsem’s directing was the personification of the saying “All style, no substance.” I figured he would disappear back into his lucrative career as a music video and commercial director. Then his film THE FALL was released and I forgave him for his horrid first flick. Here was a film which had a lyrical and interesting story, and was grounded by its two strong leads, one of which was a non-professional child actor. Tarsem’s visual flair was even stronger than ever, but it came with some actual depth. Sadly, it seems IMMORTALS is a return to his shallower roots. The trailers for this film look absolutely amazing, but the story comes across as a mash up of 300 and CLASH OF THE TITANS. While many smaller 3D action films have completely flopped this year, I think IMMORTALS can be saved by geeks wanting to get their first look at the new Superman in action. An opening of $20 m and a total of $60 m is not a great gross, but it keeps it from being a complete bomb.

The movie I have been look forward to the most this year has finally arrived. I am excited for J. EDGAR not just for the talent involved in front and behind the camera, but also for some possible insight into one of the most powerful and mysterious men in our country’s history. I also think it will be interesting to see how folks respond to a closeted gay historical figure like Hoover. It will certainly be one of the most unique cinematic portrayals of homosexuality Hollywood has ever produced. I know some reviews have been less than rapturous, but there have been many critics quite impressed with the accomplishments of everyone involved. Leo has been receiving quite a bit of praise, and he might consider writing a first draft of his Oscar acceptance speech. Commercial prospects are probably limited even with an A list name attached. Since it is the only film for adults right now, and Eastwood’s name reliably pulls in an older crowd, I could see it having a decent opening for its limited number of theatres. I am not sure if the gay aspects of the film will hurt it with word-of-mouth, but it clearly is being released way too early to benefit from Oscar buzz. A opening somewhere below $10 m, with a $30 m total if folks are not impressed but a $50 m total if people are captivated by Hoover’s story and Dicaprio’s performance.

[Dien]

Eddie Murphy will have other chances, but it will probably be after his hosting gig. He said in his Rolling Stone interview that he's done with family films, so it's just a matter of time before he lands a movie that someone actually goes to see. It may help if he lowers his asking price too.

[Big Magilla]

So much for Eddie Murphy's highly touted comeback.

[OscarGuy]

It may be the East Coast issue. Puss opened lower than expected due to the snowstorm that hit the east coast, putting millions out of power. What we may be seeing this past weekend was the re-emergence of those inidivuals catching what they would have seen last week.

[Sabin]

That's why I thought for sure it was done, Wes. From what I hear it's imminently forgettable and that word of mouth to me sounds more toxic than any association with Shrek, a franchise that has been going on for ten years now and there's no reason to believe that audiences wouldn't sit through a fifth one.

[OscarGuy]

It's not Shrek, no. But it is the same universe and it has all of the hazards and pitfalls the Shrek franchise has always had. Were it just a Zorro-esque caper set outside of fairytale tropes, it might have been more engaging, but as it is, it's diverting, but innocuous and certainly not as clever as it should have ben.

[Dien]

I speculate some didn't see it because of the main character's association with Shrek. Then when their friends or family went to see it opening weekend and told them it wasn't Shrek, they decided to give it a shot.

That would be the only reason I would watch it. Not planning on it, though. It will probably milk* the rest the family audience for another week until it's bombarded by the season's family-friendly fare (Happy Feet Two, The Muppets, Arthur Christmas).

* - Get it? Eh, eh? ...oh, nevermind.