Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[MovieWes]

Weekend estimates

1 TWILIGHT (Summit) - $70.55m, $70.6m (NEW) --
2 QUANTUM OF SOLACE (MGM/Sony) - $27.40m, $109.5m (2) -59.4%
3 BOLT (Disney) - $27.00m, $27.0m (NEW) --
4 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA (Paramount/DreamWorks) - $16.00m, $137.4m (3) -54.3%
5 ROLE MODELS (Universal) - $7.23m, $48.0m (3) -35.2%
6 CHANGELING (Universal) - $2.64m, $31.6m (5) -37.9%
7 HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR (Disney) - $2.01m, $86.8m (5) -64.5%
8 ZACK AND MIRI MAKE A PORNO (Weinstein) - $1.70m, $29.4m (4) -46.0%
9 THE BOY IN THE STRIPED PAJAMAS (Miramax) - $1.67m, $2.7m (3) +252.7%
10 THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES (Fox Searchlight) - $1.27m, $35.6m (6) -45.5%
11 SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Fox Searchlight) - $994k, $1.6m (2) +176.1%
12 SOUL MEN (MGM) - $930k, $10.9m (3) -60.4%
13 FIREPROOF (Samuel Goldwyn) - $900k, $31.5m (9) -29.3%
14 RACHEL GETTING MARRIED (Sony Pictures Classics) - $765k, $8m (8) -27.2%



Edited By MovieWes on 1227465714

[MovieWes]

With a $35 million opening day, it should make more than $70 million this weekend. Most films have bigger Saturdays than Fridays, and I see no reason why Twilight should behave any differently. It should make $37 million on Saturday and probably $25 million on Sunday towards a $97 million opening weekend. But that's just what I think.

[rolotomasi99]

TWILIGHT made $35 million on its opening weekend. that is the 14th best opening day ever -- more than IRON MAN, TRANSFORMERS, X-MEN 2, just to name a few. i thought TWILIGHT would make $40 million in its entire opening weekend, with a $120 million total. now it is likely to make around $70 million this weekend, and possibly close to $200 million. i think its second weekend will see a huge drop, so i do not think $200 million is guaranteed.

[MovieWes]

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Twilight (Summit) - $33M*, $9,652 PTA, $33M cume
2. Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $8.7M, $2,516 PTA, $90.7M cume
2. NEW – Bolt (Disney) - $7.1M, $1,945 PTA, $7.1M cume
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.75M, $936 PTA, $125.1M cume
5. Role Models (Universal) - $2.4M, $883 PTA, $43.2M cume
6. Changeling (Univeral) - $875,000, $506 PTA, $29.8M cume
7. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $800,000, $339 PTA, $85.6M cume
8. Zack & Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) - $685,000, $561 PTA, $28.3M cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $500,000, $457 PTA, $34.8M cume
10. Soul Men (MGM) - $370,000, $455 PTA, $10.3M cume
*includes $7.5M from Thursday midnight screenings

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Twilight (Summit) - $70.95M, $20,752 PTA, $70.95M cume
2. NEW – Bolt (Disney) - $27.69M, $11,109 PTA, $27.69M cume
3. Quantum of Solace (Sony) - $26.97M, $7,799 PTA, $109M cume
4. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $16.68M, $4,165 PTA, $138.1M cume
5. Role Models (Universal) - $7.44M, $2,738 PTA, $48.2M cume
6. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $3.4M, $1,440 PTA, $88.2M cume
7. Changeling (Univeral) - $3.01M, $1,747 PTA, $31.9M cume
8. Zack & Miri Make a Porno (Weinstein) - $2.08M, $1,713 PTA, $29.7M cume
9. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $1.77M, $1,621 PTA, $36.1M cume
10. Soul Men (MGM) - $1.25M, $1,545 PTA, $11.2M cume



Edited By MovieWes on 1227371060

[Penelope]

"What is with all the screaming?" Pattinson asked when he came out. He absently ran his hand through his hair. Pandemonium ensued. Then Pattison smiled: A girl in a "Team Edward" shirt fell into the arms of her friend. "I can't stand it!" she said. Last Monday there was a huge crush outside a mall near San Francisco, and a girl ended up with a broken nose. When Pattinson appeared in New York the week before, one young fan asked him to bite her.

This reminds of when Roger Howarth played Todd on One Life to Live--Todd had raped leading lady Marty--and when Howarth would appear at events, the female fans would shout, "Rape me, too!"

[Sonic Youth]

I never heard of it before this year either.

But read this

(Some guys have all the luck.)

luck? that article would make me afraid to be pattinson. as paula abdul can tell you, sometimes fame brings some pretty scary people closer than you would like.

from the article:

"What is with all the screaming?" Pattinson asked when he came out. He absently ran his hand through his hair. Pandemonium ensued. Then Pattison smiled: A girl in a "Team Edward" shirt fell into the arms of her friend. "I can't stand it!" she said. Last Monday there was a huge crush outside a mall near San Francisco, and a girl ended up with a broken nose. When Pattinson appeared in New York the week before, one young fan asked him to bite her.

Yeah, he doesn't seem to like it either. I suppose up to a point it gets way overwhelming and unpleasant. Still, a week or two of fawning-by-the-thousands might be nice, absent the screaming. The closest I ever came to having a strange woman ask me to bite her was when I accidentally cut her off on the interstate.

[rolotomasi99]

I never heard of it before this year either.

But read this

(Some guys have all the luck.)

luck? that article would make me afraid to be pattinson. as paula abdul can tell you, sometimes fame brings some pretty scary people closer than you would like.

from the article:

"What is with all the screaming?" Pattinson asked when he came out. He absently ran his hand through his hair. Pandemonium ensued. Then Pattison smiled: A girl in a "Team Edward" shirt fell into the arms of her friend. "I can't stand it!" she said. Last Monday there was a huge crush outside a mall near San Francisco, and a girl ended up with a broken nose. When Pattinson appeared in New York the week before, one young fan asked him to bite her.

[Sonic Youth]

prior to this year i had never heard of the book series the new movie TWILIGHT is based on. now, i cannot wait for the film to be released just so i never have to read anything about it again.

i thought HIGHSCHOOL MUSICAL 3 was going to be the big tween film of the year, but it will barely pass $100 million. now it seems everyone in hollywood has forgotten about that film and is now obsessively talking about how big TWILIGHT will be. my guess is it will have a $40 million opening like the aforementioned tween film, but then peter out. it will probably have better repeat business since the vampire/werewolf aspects may pull in more tween guys than the singing/dancing of HIGHSCHOOL MUSICAL 3.

my prediction is $120 million for TWILIGHT. am i underestimating the appeal? is the hype legitimate? is anyone here going to admit to actually wanting to see it? :laugh:

I never heard of it before this year either.

But read this

(Some guys have all the luck.)

[MovieWes]

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Quantum of Solace Sony $70,400,000 - 3,451 - $20,400 $70,400,000 $200 1
2 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa P/DW $36,130,000 -42.7% 4,065 +9 $8,888 $118,018,000 $150 2
3 2 Role Models Uni. $11,710,000 -38.9% 2,798 +6 $4,185 $38,137,000 $28 2
4 3 High School Musical 3: Senior Year BV $5,879,000 -35.8% 3,202 -262 $1,836 $84,392,000 $11 4
5 4 Changeling Uni. $4,247,000 -41.4% 1,896 +41 $2,240 $27,625,000 $55 4
6 5 Zack and Miri Make a Porno Wein. $3,200,000 -49.0% 2,210 -525 $1,448 $26,519,000 $24 3
7 6 Soul Men MGM/W $2,428,000 -55.1% 2,048 +4 $1,186 $9,449,000 - 2
8 9 The Secret Life of Bees FoxS $2,400,000 -22.3% 1,449 -32 $1,656 $33,689,000 $11 5
9 7 Saw V LGF $1,790,000 -56.0% 2,002 -827 $894 $55,403,000 $10.8 4
10 8 The Haunting of Molly Hartley Free $1,649,000 -50.3% 1,587 -989 $1,039 $12,695,000 - 3
11 11 Beverly Hills Chihuahua BV $1,538,000 -38.9% 1,617 -742 $951 $90,837,000 - 7
12 10 Eagle Eye P/DW $1,538,000 -39.5% 1,214 -193 $1,267 $98,813,000 $80 8
13 13 Fireproof Gold. $1,291,000 -18.6% 862 -10 $1,498 $30,233,000 $0.5 8
14 15 Rachel Getting Married SPC $1,176,000 -21.9% 390 -1 $3,015 $7,070,000 - 7
15 14 Body of Lies WB $700,000 -54.5% 625 -225 $1,120 $38,272,000 $70 6

[rolotomasi99]

newest predictions for 2008 top ten.


1
The Dark Knight
$529 million

2
Iron Man
$318 million

3
The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
$317 million

4
Hancock
$227 million

5
WALL-E
$224 million

6
Quantum of Solace
$220 million

7
Kung Fu Panda
$215 million

8
Madagascar 2
$210 million

9
Yes Man
$170 million

10
Bedtime Stories
$160 million

[flipp525]

My guess as to one of the reasons why Changeling has been enjoying a rather steady stay in the top five is good word-of-mouth. I've overheard several people talking about and recommending it to others. This can only help Jolie's chances of securing a well-deserved lead nomination.



Edited By flipp525 on 1226783340

[Zahveed]

I wonder how long Changeling and The Secret Life of Bees can keep up sleeping. They may very well stay in the top ten longer than HSM3. On that note, South Park executed a terrific attack last week on the sensation and its limited staying power among the ADD-prone preteens of America.

[MovieWes]

Friday's numbers...

01. Quantum of Solace - $27,000,000/$27,000,000
02. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa - $8,100,000/$89,988,000
03. Role Models - $3,763,000/$30,190,000
04. High School Musical 3: Senior Year - $1,325,000/$79,838,000
05. Changeling - $1,232,000/$24,610,000
06. Zack and Miri Make a Porno - $1,070,000/$24,389,000
07. Soul Men - $690,000/$7,711,000
08. The Secret Life of Bees - $655,000/$31,944,000
09. Saw V - $565,000/$54,178,000
10. The Haunting of Molly Hartley - $500,000/$11,546,000

Quantum of Solace is heading for a possible $75,000,000 opening weekend. Wow! This is a first for the series, and especially good for a franchise that is on its 22nd film!



Edited By MovieWes on 1226770762

[rolotomasi99]

prior to this year i had never heard of the book series the new movie TWILIGHT is based on. now, i cannot wait for the film to be released just so i never have to read anything about it again.

i thought HIGHSCHOOL MUSICAL 3 was going to be the big tween film of the year, but it will barely pass $100 million. now it seems everyone in hollywood has forgotten about that film and is now obsessively talking about how big TWILIGHT will be. my guess is it will have a $40 million opening like the aforementioned tween film, but then peter out. it will probably have better repeat business since the vampire/werewolf aspects may pull in more tween guys than the singing/dancing of HIGHSCHOOL MUSICAL 3.

my prediction is $120 million for TWILIGHT. am i underestimating the appeal? is the hype legitimate? is anyone here going to admit to actually wanting to see it? :laugh:


as reported by imdb --

"A near-riot broke out at a mall in San Francisco Monday when an estimated 3,000 teenagers jammed the corridors for an autograph-signing session with 22-year-old actor Robert Pattinson. Police were summoned to the Stonestown Galleria after receiving telephone complaints that the crowd of teens -- some of whom had traveled hundreds of miles to see the young heartthrob -- had become so large that some were being crushed against mall windows. The autograph session had been scheduled to begin at the Hot Topics store at 6:00 p.m. with an estimated 300 fans expected to show up, but a large crowd had already gathered at the mall's entrance before it opened in the morning. The event was subsequently canceled. The incident, however, appeared to lend support to predictions that the forthcoming movie Twilight, which stars Pattinson, will become an enormous blockbuster when it is released on November 21."

"Meanwhile, it was reported that a mall in suburban Chicago beefed up its security for an appearance by Pattinson on Wednesday in connection with the upcoming release of his vampire film Twilight. A local newspaper said that some Pattinson fans showed up at the mall 20 hours before the young actor's scheduled appearance. To prevent the kind of near-riot that occurred in San Francisco earlier in the week when thousands of his fans turned up for an autograph-signing session, authorities handed out vouchers to those who arrived early and sent away those who did not. One rejected -- and dejected -- teen told the Southtown News, "They told us not to come back until 5 a.m. or we'd be escorted off the property and our cars would be towed."

"In yet another indication that the November 21 release of the Robert Pattinson starrer Twilight may turn out to be a phenomenal blockbuster Billboard magazine reported Wednesday that the soundtrack of the movie debuted at No. 1 on its pop chart after selling 165,000 copies the previous week. The music trade publication said that 48,000 copies were downloaded from the Internet, making it the second-biggest downloaded release since the soundtrack of High School Musical 2 was downloaded 62,000 times in August 2007."

[Zahveed]

I still kind of wish it was a more severe overestimation.