Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[OscarGuy]

I think the failure at the box office also has something to do with how terrible the film looks in the preview. It looked horrid...I couldn't have imagined anyone wanting to see it, let alone doing so.

[rolotomasi99]

direct-to-dvd movies actually can do quite well these days. spending the money on creating enough celluloid to cover more than 2,000 theatres is actually quite expensive. things will change once all theatres go digital, but i cannot even imagine spending all that money and not coming anywhere near recouping the losses of just the celluloid the movie is on. very sad. just releasing the film to dvd would have at least avoided the death stench this news attaches to it. oh, well.

[MovieWes]

Looks like The Dark Knight isn't the only 2008 release that broke records at the box-office this year...

Animated 'Delgo' Has Worst Wide Release Opening Ever

by Jonathan Crow

Don't feel too left out if you missed seeing the animated adventure movie "Delgo" this past weekend. No one did. In fact, the movie broke a record for having the worst opening ever for a film in wide release. "Delgo" earned a measly $511,920 this weekend on 2,160 screens, not even breaking the top ten. That's an average of $237 per screen for the three days. If you figure there were five screenings a day, and assume ticket prices are about $8, that comes out to two people in the theater per showing. By comparison, the Golden Globe-nominated drama "Doubt" earned roughly the same amount of money, but it was only in 15 theaters.

This is all too bad because the story of the making of "Delgo" has the makings of a great Hollywood underdog story. 36-year-old entrepreneur Marc Adler decided he wanted to direct and produce a $40 million computer animated kids' flick completely independent of Tinseltown behemoths like Disney and Dreamworks.

Starting in 2001, Adler and his small Atlanta-based animation company Fathom Studios toiled for years on a tight budget. They lined up an impressive, if eclectic, cast of voice actors including Freddie Prinze Jr., Jennifer Love Hewitt, Val Kilmer, Malcolm McDowell, Kelly Ripa, and Anne Bancroft in her final role (she died in 2005). And when Adler couldn't get a Hollywood studio interested in his movie, he raised eyebrows by releasing it himself through distributor-for-hire Freestyle Releasing. It was a huge risk; one that ultimately didn't pay off. There wasn't the sort of marketing budget needed to make a film stand out in the already crowded holiday movie season.

Another problem was the quality of the movie. Or lack thereof. The story -- star-crossed lovers squaring off against an evil queen on a fanciful world divided between a reptilian people who can move rocks with their minds and a sprite-like folk who like dragons -- borrows liberally from "Star Wars," "The Lord of the Rings" and "The Dark Crystal," just without the charm and intelligence. The script required the efforts of six, count 'em, six screenwriters, including Adler. The critics trashed it, giving it a dreadful D average on Yahoo!, which proved to be lethal.

"Delgo" is not the only major wide release bomb of the year. Three of the ten worst openings for films in over 2000 locations came out this year. The raunchy teen sex comedy "College" and the thriller "Deception," starring Hugh Jackson and Ewan MacGregor, both tanked, garnering the sixth and ninth worst openings ever respectively. In both of those cases, the studios dumped the movies with little fanfare rather than spend millions on marketing a stinker. Here is Box Office Mojo's list of the ten biggest wide release bombs:

Rank Title Opening Theaters Per Screen Average Release Date
1 Delgo $511,920 2,160 $237 12/12/08
2 P2 $2,083,398 2,131 $977 11/9/07
3 Major League: Back to the Minors $2,087,011 2,322 $899 4/17/98
4 The Real Cancun $2,108,796 2,261 $932 4/25/03
5 College $2,153,109 2,123 $1,014 8/29/08
6 The Adventures of Pluto Nash $2,182,900 2,320 $940 8/16/02
7 All Dogs Go to Heaven 2 $2,256,118 2,037 $1,107 3/29/96
8 Deception $2,312,146 2,001 $1,155 4/25/08
9 I Dreamed of Africa $2,411,445 2,112 $1,141 5/5/00
10 Teacher's Pet $2,461,252 2,027 $1,214 1/16/04



Edited By MovieWes on 1229457933

[rolotomasi99]

With no big movies on the horizon, this December looks to be especially bleak for the box office. Any guesses?

with little competition this month, i would think THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON might be quite a magical film to see this holiday season. being the most oscar nominated film of the year (assuming) will probably help get people to check it out. i would think the love story and cool special effects will help with word of mouth, though reports of the rather cold nature of the film might not make it a slam dunk hit.

[Franz Ferdinand]

"The Day the Earth Stood Still" has opened to a ho-hum $31M - fully $90M LESS than "I Am Legend" and "Alvin" made cumulatively last year this weekend. With no big movies on the horizon, this December looks to be especially bleak for the box office. Any guesses?

[rolotomasi99]

what i wonder is where are the female equivalents of robert redford, mel gibson, george clooney, tim robbins, sean penn, or even denzel washington? like mister tee said, what is the point of amassing all that wealth, power, and stardom if you are not going to use it to either direct or produce films worth seeing?

Only two of those men are good directors (Redford and Robbins); the rest are either just marginally good (Clooney, Penn) or downright awful (Gibson, Washington).

denzel washington may not be a great director, but i would say the movies he has directed (ANTWONE FISHER, THE GREAT DEBATERS) are much better than some of the films he has acted in lately (DEJA VU, MAN ON FIRE). i appreciate his efforts to make movies as a director that tell the stories of black men and women that he often does not get to tell as an actor.
i think gibson, clooney, and penn all have a better understanding of the art and language of cinema than oscar winning directors robert zemeckis and ron howard.

i think that might be what is holding the women back. unlike other directors who are allowed to make some rookie mistakes as they evolve into good or great directors, the actors are already famous and have the spotlight on them immediately. for whatever reason, female stars do not feel confident enough to take the risk of stumbling at first before they get the hang of things. the point of actors becoming directors, particularly for women, is because too often studios are unwilling to make the kind of movies we need to see or should be told. where are the great roles for women, the strong female characters, the woman-centric stories? if rich and powerful females actors are unwilling to help them get made, than there is no way the studios will be convinced to make these types of movies.
oh well.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1227626535

[Penelope]

what i wonder is where are the female equivalents of robert redford, mel gibson, george clooney, tim robbins, sean penn, or even denzel washington? like mister tee said, what is the point of amassing all that wealth, power, and stardom if you are not going to use it to either direct or produce films worth seeing?

Only two of those men are good directors (Redford and Robbins); the rest are either just marginally good (Clooney, Penn) or downright awful (Gibson, Washington).

[rolotomasi99]

Penny Marshall made a career out of it long before Jodie Foster did. And Foster has hardly been behind the camera of late.

penny marshall, like ron howard, has proven to be a better director than actor (not to knock her comedic timing).

what i wonder is where are the female equivalents of robert redford, mel gibson, george clooney, tim robbins, sean penn, or even denzel washington? like mister tee said, what is the point of amassing all that wealth, power, and stardom if you are not going to use it to either direct or produce films worth seeing?

i would think if someone like billy bob thornton could write, direct, and star in something as good as SLING BLADE, folks as talented as judi dench, meryl streep, susan sarandon, sigourney weaver, julianne moore, etc. would be able to create something interesting. most of these actors learn to be directors by paying attention on set to what the director is saying to the rest of the crew. soon they know enough to try their own hand at directing.

i just see such wasted potential. i mean if kevin costner and ben afflect can direct one pretty good movie, than you would think some of our greatest living actresses could too. :p

[OscarGuy]

IMDB says it's set for 2010.

[flipp525]

Penny Marshall made a career out of it long before Jodie Foster did. And Foster has hardly been behind the camera of late.

Whatever happened to that Flora Plum project she was supposedly at the helm of? I feel like I've been hearing about that film for five years.

[Mister Tee]

Exactly what's the value of women advancing in the industry if it's only to make the same crud their male counterparts are making?

[OscarGuy]

Penny Marshall made a career out of it long before Jodie Foster did. And Foster has hardly been behind the camera of late.

[rolotomasi99]

an interesting aspect of all this TWILIGHT hoopla is the fact that this is the biggest opening weekend for a film directed by a woman. previously it had been DEEP IMPACT with around $40 million. in fact TWILIGHT is most likely going to end up being the highest grossing live-action film directed by a woman.
there are 14 films directed by women that have passed the century mark. 6 of the films are geared toward families, with 3 of them being animated (and those 3 were co-directed by men). 6 of the films are romantic comedies. of the two remaining films, one of them is a male centric comedy and the other is a action packed disaster film.
i am assuming catharine hardwicke (TWILIGHT) will be busy directing the sequels for a while, but after that she should have the clout and money to do whatever she wants. i hope she uses it to bring more women to the directing chair. there are so many big-time male actors who either become directors or producers. i know a few big-time female actors have moved toward directing, but other than jodi foster there are not too many who have really seemed to want to make a career out of it. it has been disappointing so far, but maybe the tide is turning for female directors in hollywood.
if i missed any films, please let me know.

SHREK 2 -- $441 m
WHAT WOMEN WANT -- $182 m
SHARK TALE -- $160 m
MAMMA MIA -- $143 m
DOCTOR DOLITTLE -- $142 m
DEEP IMPACT -- $140 m
LOOK WHO'S TALKING -- $140 m
SLEEPLESS IN SEATTLE -- $126 m
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE -- $124 m
WAYNE'S WORLD -- $121 m
YOU'VE GOT MAIL -- $115 m
BIG -- $114 m
A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN -- $107 m
PRINCE OF EGYPT -- $101 m

[rolotomasi99]

With a $35 million opening day, it should make more than $70 million this weekend. Most films have bigger Saturdays than Fridays, and I see no reason why Twilight should behave any differently. It should make $37 million on Saturday and probably $25 million on Sunday towards a $97 million opening weekend. But that's just what I think.

Friday
$35,870,000

Saturdday
$21,010,000

Sunday
$13,673,000


from the large decline in the first three days, i am assuming the second weekend is going to see a huge drop -- maybe matching QUANTUM OF SOLACE's nearly 60% drop.
with AUSTRALIA, FOUR CHRISTMASES, and TRANSPORTER 3 opening next weekend, there is no way TWILIGHT can do more than $30 million.
however, since the film made on friday almost as much as it cost to make this is definitely a huge hit for summit. it is the equivalent of new market releasing THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST or IFC releasing MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING.
there will definitely be sequels. there are three more books. i wonder if summit will make three more movies, or will they do what warner bros is doing with THE DEATHLY HOLLOWS or THE HOBBIT and make two films per book.

[MovieWes]

One thing that I noticed about Twilight is that it is released by a studio I've never heard of before, Summit Entertainment. I did some research and discovered that Twilight is their sixth picture, and that their first picture, P2, was released last November. This year, they've released Penelope, Never Back Down, Fly Me to the Moon, and Sex Drive. This weekend, Twilight made more money than the combined totals of all their previous releases. Are we looking at the birth of a new major studio?

EDIT: After doing a bit more research, I discovered that Summit has only just started distributing its own pictures, but has been producing movies since 1998, which have been distributed by other majors. Their first film was Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (released through Universal), and they have also made Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels, Memento, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Babel, Once, and Michael Clayton. Kind of interesting.



Edited By MovieWes on 1227466554