SAG/DGA/PGA Predicitons

[Sabin]

Possible (and likely) scenarion in which the DGA tells us nothing:

Condon - Eastwood - Frears - Innaritu - Scorsese.

...because 'Little Miss Sunshine' will absolutely not be nominated by these people. And those are my predictions. Great. Six mortal locks for Best Picture. Make it easy on me.

[dws1982]

I don't think DGA will nominate Dayton and Faris. Only Robbins and Wise got a co-nomination from the DGA. No one else has.

I agree that they probably won't be nominated, but not because of that precedent. Little Miss Sunshine just doesn't seem like the type of film director's will embrace. But if they do somehow get nominated, the movie will be an absolute lock for a Best Picture nomination.

[OscarGuy]

Everyone was so depressed that this was going to be a year lacking in suspense, yet for Director and Picture, we have more suspense than we've had in eons.

I don't think DGA will nominate Dayton and Faris. Only Robbins and Wise got a co-nomination from the DGA. No one else has.

[Sonic Youth]

To paraphrase Mister Tee's question last week before the SAG nominations were announced: who NEEDS a DGA nomination?

Obviously, everyone does. But some need it more than others in order to stay alive. If Paul Greengrass gets nomned, then there's no more denying him or United 93 for Best Director/Picture. But if he misses out, he and his film are done. Dreamgirls received big boosts with the PGA and the SAGs. If Condon gets nommed, it would be the biggest boost of them all. And Eastwood for Letter From Iwo Jima needs one, but I'm skeptical he or the film will receive a nomination even with a DGA mention.

And then there's Alfonso Cuaron. If he gets a late break, it would be the Oscar season's biggest miracle in years... assuming it's not too little, too late. Other foreign film directors are in need of a miracle, namely Del Toro and Almodovar. Oscar Watch has a list of "experts" giving their predictions, and only one pundit has Almodovar down: Tom O'Neil. Would this shockeroo be a hunch of his, or does he have it on good authority from his sources? Whatever. An Almodovar nom would be hugely beneficial since Volver is presently stuck in "Park".

The safest prediction would be Condon, Eastwood, Frears, Gonzales Inarritu, and Scorsese. This is the slate that will elicit cries of "BORING!" tomorrow afternoon. But Greengrass could take Condon's, Eastwood's or G.I.'s spot.* And Cuaron could suddenly make the Oscar race thrilling all over again.

And then there's always Emilio Estevez...

And one more issue. I understand that for the past three or four years the DGA's Best Director slate perfectly matched up with AMPAS' Best Picture slate. It's tempting to predict the DGA noms on those terms, but I don't believe in superstitions. Every year comes with its own unique circumstances. I can see Dreamgirls nominated for Best Picture without a Condon/DGA nod. I can see Little Miss Sunshine nominated for Best Picture with no DGA nod. I can see an Eastwood DGA nod with no Best Picture for Letters From Iwo Jima. I can see an extreme case, like Cuaron miraculously getting a DGA nod but no Best Picture for Children of Men... or vice versa. For all we know, Children of Men is suddenly growing a cult following within the Academy.

Unfortunately, I'm not going to be online until tomorrow evening, darn it. I'm gonna miss all the excitement. Have fun, everyone!

*EDIT: Come to think of it, any of the five names I mentioned (except for Scorsese) could be vulnerable.

[Penelope]

Bad or lesser movies are like Beetlejuice. You say their names three times and they appear....and start winning sh*t.

I don't want Babel taking anything away from The Departed.

Sweetie, superstition has nothing whatsoever to do with the Oscars. Trust me: I lit candles, prayed every night and even abstained from sex in the hope that anybody other than The Agent of Evil would win in 2004, and it was all for naught.

[Akash]

What could be just as likely would be GG-Drama to Babel, GG-Comedy to Dreamgirls and GG-Director to Departed. Add that to the mix.

I didn't want to say it because I just....don't want that to happen.

Bad or lesser movies are like Beetlejuice. You say their names three times and they appear....and start winning sh*t.

I don't want Babel taking anything away from The Departed.

[FilmFan720]

What could be just as likely would be GG-Drama to Babel, GG-Comedy to Dreamgirls and GG-Director to Departed. Add that to the mix.

[Akash]

I'm sure this has been said before by someone else - and maybe more than once - but wouldn't it be a fun season if the Guilds and Globes split again like they did in 2004?

What if Globes Picture-Drama and Director went to The Departed, while Picture-Comedy is taken by Dreamgirls, and the the Guilds split with PGA going to Dreamgirls, DGA going to The Departed and SAG going to....Little Miss Sunshine! (ugh)

It could happen though and would make for an exciting season. Especially if the end result winds up being like 2004. Back then The Aviator took the Picture-Drama Globe, Sideways took Picture-Comedy, and Million Dollar Baby took Director. Then to agitate the split, PGA went to the Aviator, DGA went to Million Dollar Baby, and SAG went to Sideways. In the end though Oscar was more streamlined as Million Dollar Baby won both Picture and Director.

If this pattern repeats, The Departed would win Picture and Director at the Oscars and well....I'd be very happy with that

[Hustler]

The deaf thing AND her vagina.

LOL

[VanHelsing]

The deaf thing AND her vagina.

[OscarGuy]

What I find odd is that Rinko is getting more attention than Adriana. I think Adriana is better but I guess the deaf thing makes Rinko more appealing.

[Hustler]

Female Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel
Diane Lane - Hollywoodland
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration

Wow. Do you really think Diane Lane of all the possible contenders could knock off Jennifer Hudson? I just don't see how Hudson could possibly not be nominated at this point.

Hmm... I didn't actually intend to leave Hudson off, not sure what happened there. Lane may be a pipe dream, but lets knock out Kikuchi instead...

Blanchett; Hudson and O´Hara seem to be locks. Even Kikuchi.
Barraza, Breslin and Collette could fill the fifth slot.

[rudeboy]

Female Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel
Diane Lane - Hollywoodland
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration

Wow. Do you really think Diane Lane of all the possible contenders could knock off Jennifer Hudson? I just don't see how Hudson could possibly not be nominated at this point.

Hmm... I didn't actually intend to leave Hudson off, not sure what happened there. Lane may be a pipe dream, but lets knock out Kikuchi instead...

[Mister Tee]

And Penelope Cruz... if only to get Mister Tee to stop insisting that she's in a weak position for a nom. And even then... :p

I said a ways back I'd surrender on the issue if SAG went along. Of course, now there's the possibility they won't, but only on the technicality dws mentions.

You're quite correct, I left out Haley. He could conceivably follow the route of Marcia Gay Harden and William Hurt (NYFC awards, snubbed by the prelims, nominated by AMPAS), but would be alot more secure with a SAG nod. And Hounsou -- one of the three in '03 who defied the usual Globe-SAG-or-bust tradition -- kind of needs to show up to keep his waning hopes alive.

SAG could of course also help out someone hitherto overlooked -- Norton or Watts, Phyllis Somerville -- making them something beyond extreme long-shots.

[Big Magilla]

What time do the SAGs announce tomorrow?

6:05 A.M. PST - carried live on TNT, TBS and E! and webcast on both TNT's and TBS's websites.



Edited By Big Magilla on 1167886514