October Predictions

[Sabin]

Movielover, although I realize my cred has been tarnished by my early 'Flags'-dismissal, but DiCaprio's accent in 'Blood Diamond' is a tiny disaster that he never rebounds from and he doesn't begin to touch the depths he reaches in 'The Departed'. Write him off...for that movie at least.

[flipp525]

Supporting Actor:
Richard Griffiths (The History Boys)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)

Griffiths is officially campaigning for Lead as is Nicholson.

[Movielover]

Picture:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
The Queen

Director:
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Clint Eastwood (Flags of Our Fathers)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Actor:
George Clooney (The Good German)
Leonardo Dicaprio (Blood Diamond)
Jude Law (Breaking and Entering)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Actress:
Cate Blanchett (The Good German)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)

Supporting Actor:
Adam Beach (Flags of Our Fathers)
Michael Caine (Children of Men)
James McAvoy (The Last King of Scotland)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)

Supporting Actress:
Juliette Binoche (Breaking and Entering)
Frances de la Tour (The History Boys)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Sharon Stone (Bobby)
Emily Watson (Miss Potter)

Original Screenplay:
Babel
Bobby
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Volver

Adapted Screenplay:
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good German
Little Children

[VanHelsing]

VanHelsing, don't give up on Bullock yet!

LOL! She wasn't even in my predictions in the first place. But of course she has always been in my wish list. And if she does get nominated, I'll most definitely give the credit to you Magilla, for predicting her first.

I think Dreamgirls will hit it big and it can even match Chicago in terms of acting nominations:
Hudson = Zeta-Jones
Murphy = Reilly
Rose = Latifah
Knowles = Zellweger

And if the Academy still loves Foxx, he might even get nominated unlike Gere who missed out. I could be wrong but come to think of it, the coast seems clear for Dreamgirls to really hit it big by the end of this year. We'll see.

[Eric]

With Stone, it pretty much begins and ends with JFK, both the creepiest and funniest movie he ever made.

[criddic3]

Oh, just enough, criddic. You take a movie and champion it to death to the point of overkill. Last year it was Cinderella Man, this year it's WTC. Just stop already. No one here liked it and aside from technical categories, it's not getting any Oscar nominations. Ugh. Move on.

Actually I'm not championing it beyond saying they should give it a chance. I do not see it as a likely best pic candidate, but I do see a chance for Michael Pena or Maggie Gyllenhaal. And your constant condescension is getting old. Many people aside from me felt that Cinderella Man was snubbed of recognition last year. Several critics, as well as audience members, felt that Russell Crowe deserved a nomination. The fact that he received some late-in-the-game nods from other groups was a sign that I was not the only one (as you seem to imply) who "championed" the film. I know there isn't a lot of love on this board for Ron Howard or Russell Crowe, but I was most definitely not singing praises for a lost cause.

As for World Trade Center, I do not love the film but I do admire it. There's a great distinction between the two. It is not the best film of the year, and may not even be among the top five or perhaps ten, depending on forthcoming titles. However, it is a well-made and often affecting effort, certainly Oliver Stone's best in a long time (since his brilliant, superior Nixon in 1995).

I see your point about over-praising a movie that few of you liked, but your disgust seems disingenuous. Why should anyone deprive a movie-lover of his/her opinion on a film in a film forum? Many of you have praised a film or performance through the Oscar season that had little or no chance, if only to voice your hopes that they might make it into the race. While I am not going to waste breath on a movie I do not love, I think I've taken a simple argument on behalf of both World Trade Center and United 93 that they should not be dismissed because of pre-conceived notions about what they should have been versus what they were. It's not as if neither film was received well enough to suggest even the possibility of Oscar consideration.

[Big Magilla]

VanHelsing, don't give up on Bullock yet!

Flipp, unless Little Children proves to be more popular than I'm suspecting, Winslet is the only sure bet for a nomination. Haley is a strong possibility, but with so many other "back from the dead" contenders this year - O'Toole, Murphy, even Maguire and Pitt, he's still a dark horse. As for Somerville, I can see AMPAS giving a collective "Phyllis who?"

As for Watson, I always like to throw in someone no one else is thinking of. Earlier thoughts were Sylvia sims in The Queen, Gwyneth Paltrow in Infamous and Vanessa Redgrave in Venus, both none of these performances in films already seen are generating much interest. Paltrow's performance, in fact, has provided almost as much derision as Kirsten Dunst's in Maire Antoinette (I'm glad they decided against the hyphenate!)

Why Watson? Why not? She was a popular star out of the gate with Breaking the Waves and Hilary and Jackie, both of which won her nods in the late 90s. She came close to additonal nods for Angela's Ashes (for which won a BAFTA nod) and Gosford Park. Methinks she ain't done yet. Per Oscar Igloo, "Miss Potter," the Weinstein promoted picture about a famous author is said to feature an incredible performance from Emily Watson in a supporting turn.

[flipp525]

I expected to find a controversial point of view related to that matter

Exactly the point. He restrained himself and made a film that was quite affecting. The audience I saw this with seemed quite moved by it.

Look, just because the expectation was that Oliver Stone would be more controversial shouldn't negate the film's qualities. Besides, what kind of controversy did you want to see? Some conspiracy theory about the government being in on the attack? That would just be ludicrous, not to mention complete crap. So what did you expect?

Oh, just enough, criddic. You take a movie and champion it to death to the point of overkill. Last year it was Cinderella Man, this year it's WTC. Just stop already. No one here liked it and aside from technical categories, it's not getting any Oscar nominations. Ugh. Move on.

Magilla, I like some of the updates to your predictions, however, do you really think Miss Potter is going to make that much of a mark? I think there's a possibility of a Zellweger nod but I'm not feeling Watson (I think I'm weary about her chances after over-buzzing in the past re: Angela's Ashes and Cradle Will Rock, etc). Also, I don't think that Streep is out yet either. As stated before, her performance is just the kind to be remembered long after the film's mid-summer release.

Where's Jackie Earle Haley or Phyllis Somerville on your BSA shortlists for Little Children? Both were absolutely excellent.

Bullock, Hudson, and O'Hara are all solid bets at this point.

[Hustler]

I expected to find a controversial point of view related to that matter

Exactly the point. He restrained himself and made a film that was quite affecting. The audience I saw this with seemed quite moved by it.

Look, just because the expectation was that Oliver Stone would be more controversial shouldn't negate the film's qualities. Besides, what kind of controversy did you want to see? Some conspiracy theory about the government being in on the attack? That would just be ludicrous, not to mention complete crap. So what did you expect?

I didn´t expect to see a "literal" moving dramatization of that event. I know the story. It didn´t contributed to me in any aspect. The WTC´s tragedy would have deserved a more respectable homage in film terms.

[VanHelsing]

Magilla, I like your predictions. Most of them are my choices (up to this point) as well. But I'm only gonna do up a new set of predictions in November.

In the meantime, here are my predictions for Best Supporting Actress...
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
*Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Carmen Maura - Volver
Anika Noni Rose - Dreamgirls
Sharon Stone - Bobby

But these actresses are in my wish list...
Cate Blanchett - Notes On A Scandal
*Sandra Bullock - Infamous
Angelina Jolie - The Good Shepherd
Meryl Streep - A Prairie Home Companion
Emma Thompson - Stranger Than Fiction

Till then, wait for November.

[criddic3]

I expected to find a controversial point of view related to that matter

Exactly the point. He restrained himself and made a film that was quite affecting. The audience I saw this with seemed quite moved by it.

Look, just because the expectation was that Oliver Stone would be more controversial shouldn't negate the film's qualities. Besides, what kind of controversy did you want to see? Some conspiracy theory about the government being in on the attack? That would just be ludicrous, not to mention complete crap. So what did you expect?

[dreaMaker]

... about World Trade Center, HONESTLY, i expected to see a new JFK. Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa...

[Big Magilla]

Things are stelling to get very interesting.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
*Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
The Queen

With the less than unanimous positive reviews for Flags of Our Fathers, it's safe to say that barring any last minute release from out of nowhere, Dreamgirls is the one to beat. The Departed is far from a perfect film, but its strong reviews and box office staying power give it more heft than I previously thought.

Best Actor
Richard Griffiths, The History Boys
Toby Jones, Infamous
*Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotlnd

The professional pundits are not giving either Griffths or Jones much of a chance. Most see a double nod for The Departed's Leonardo DiCaprio and Jack Nicholson. They may be right, but The Academy has a way of pulling surprises in this category.

If O'Toole had won for one of his great performances in Lawrence of Arabia, Becket or The Lion in Winter, Whitaker would be the clear favorite but the fact that he hasn't won a competitive Oscar in his previous seven at-bats, makes him all the more endearing. His special Oscar only serves to undermine the fact that the Academy missed the boat and has one last chance to throw him a life preserver.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scanal
*Helen Mirren, The Queen
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Renee Zellweger, Miss Potter

Only a fool would bet against Mirren at this point. Seinna Miller be damned, Zellweger is Harvey's girl and the real lfie story of Beatrix Potter trumps any of her famous children's books. Forget Meryl, and definitely forget Annette this year.

Best Supporting Actor
Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers
Tobey Maguire, The Good German
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel
Michael Sheen, The Queen

This race is too close to call. Beach had been the clear favorite in my mind until the the reviews of Flags proved to be less than stellar. He may still be the film's best hope, but Murphy's back from the near dead triumph may be too much to ignore. The rest are just wild guesses.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Sandra Bullock Infamous
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Catherine O'Hara, For Your Consideration
Emily Watson, Miss Potter

Many are called, but few are chosen. Always the toughest category to predict. Hudson has been the one solid prediction all year long, but she remains an unknown quantity until the film is actually in release.

Other possiblilities include Carmen Maura, an Aldomovar mainstay in Volver, Sharon Stone, who could be Bobby's token nod and Angelina Jolie in The Good Shepherd if enough voters are a) impressed by her performance and b) want to see her and Brad nominated in the same year. She looks good in the trailer, but the film itself looks like a retread of 1959's The FBI Story whose paint-by-the-numbers screenlay couldn't be overcome by the estimable talents of either Jimmy Stewart or Vera Miles.

Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Deaprted

Another race that's too close to call. Conventional wisdom would say the director of the year's best film should win - and Condon certainly could - but sentiment could sway a win for either Eastwood (making him the first three time winner in nearly fifty years, joining just three others - Capra Ford, who has four, and Wyler) or Scorsese (though the chant that he deserves to win just for being Scorsese has rung hollow more than a few times allready.)

If the directors' branch wants to throw a monkey wrench into the proceedings, as they often do, look for Pedro Almodovar to be nominated for Volver over - gasp, Martin Scorsese!

[Hustler]

Yes, somewhat conventional, but I thought the acting more than compensated for that. What did you expect it to be like?

This film is not the kind of film That Oliver Stone is used to filming. I expected to find a controversial point of view related to that matter. Something with more substance.

[criddic3]

Yes, somewhat conventional, but I thought the acting more than compensated for that. What did you expect it to be like?