2024 Emmy Awards

[anonymous1980]

My first Emmy predictions:

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Fargo (FX)
Ripley (Netflix)
The Sympathizer (HBO)
True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

OUTSTANDING TV MOVIE
The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial (Paramount+)
Mr. Monk's Last Case: A Monk Movie (Peacock)
Quiz Lady (Hulu)
Red, White and Royal Blue (Prime Video)
Scoop (Netflix)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES or MOVIE
Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Richard Gadd, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, Fargo (FX)
Andrew Scott, Ripley (Netflix)
Tony Shalhoub, Mr. Monk's Last Case: A Monk Movie (Peacock)
Hoa Xuande, The Sympathizer (HBO)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES or MOVIE
Jodie Foster, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)
Nicole Kidman, Expats (Prime Video)
Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Juno Temple, Fargo (FX)
Sofia Vergara, Griselda (Netflix)
Kate Winslet, The Regime (HBO)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES or MOVIE
Jonathan Bailey, Fellow Travelers (Showtime)
Robert Downey Jr., The Sympathizer (HBO)
Johnny Flynn, Ripley (Netflix)
Hugh Grant, The Regime (HBO)
Joe Keery, Fargo (FX)
Lewis Pullman, Lessons in Chemistry (AppleTV+)
Treat Williams, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES or MOVIE
Dakota Fanning, Ripley (Netflix)
Jessica Gunning, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Diane Lane, Feud: Capote vs. The Swans (FX)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Fargo (FX)
Nava Mau, Baby Reindeer (Netflix)
Sandra Oh, The Sympathizer (HBO)
Kali Reis, True Detective: Night Country (HBO)

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
The Crown (Netflix)
The Curse (Showtime)
Fallout (Prime Video)
The Gilded Age (HBO)
Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Shogun (FX)
Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Donald Glover, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, Fallout (Prime Video)
Cosmo Jarvis, Shogun (FX)
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Hiroyuki Sanada, Shogun (FX)
Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Maya Erskine, Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Prime Video)
Anna Sawai, Shogun (FX)
Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
Emma Stone, The Curse (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Tadanobu Asano, Shogun (FX)
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Jon Hamm, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Nathan Lane, The Gilded Age (HBO)
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix)
Ke Huy Quan, Loki (Disney+)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Christine Baranski, The Gilded Age (HBO)
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix)
Greta Lee, The Morning Show (AppleTV+)
Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)
Fimi Nikaido, Shogun (FX)
Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age (HBO)
Kristin Scott Thomas, Slow Horses (AppleTV+)

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
The Bear (FX)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Hacks (HBO)
Loot (AppleTV+)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Kelsey Grammer, Frasier (Paramount+)
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (FX)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)
Maya Rudolph, Loot (AppleTV+)
Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO)
Kristen Wiig, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO)
Lionel Boyce, The Bear (FX)
Matty Matheson, The Bear (FX)
Ebon Moss-Bacharach, The Bear (FX)
Oliver Platt, The Bear (FX)
Paul Rudd, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES
Carol Burnett, Palm Royale (AppleTV+)
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO)
Abby Elliot, The Bear (HBO)
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

[dws1982]

Shogun is reportedly submitting in the Drama Series categories, and FX announced this week that a second season is in development. I understand the attraction to making more, because it was such a big event, but from my understanding, it was a full adaptation of the novel. James Clavell did not write a sequel book. (He did write several other novels set in Asia, and they are part of what is referred to as the Asian Saga, but they aren't explicitly connected to Shogun.) It may be beneficial to the show in terms of Emmy wins; the Drama Series categories were looking pretty weak; The Crown was been looked at as the frontrunner, but mainly because there is so little else.

[flipp525]

I agree with Sabin that Baby Reindeer will be a big contender in the Limited Series categories at the Emmys, basically any category in which it’s nominated. This is pretty harrowing stuff. Bravo to Richard Gadd for being this vulnerable in portraying his story. It’s very good and hard to watch at times (I definitely had to take a break halfway through). I don’t think there will be anything similar coming out the rest of the eligibility period.

The series has a lot in common with the Emmy-nominated limited series I May Destroy You which also explored the effects of trauma on its main character. And also both being British shows.

Jessica Gunning must be seen as a solid frontrunner for Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie/Anthology at this point (again, agree with Sabin here). She was almost Kathy Bates-in-Misery-esque at times. A scary, yet oddly tender at times, performance.

Okri, I think the “ethically fractious” element of the series is actually attracting more viewers than it might normally have gotten.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I've been meaning to watch Baby Reindeer, but I wonder if the ethically fractious part of it will turn voters off. Especially when they can just vote for Masters of the Air or something less discomfiting.

When it comes to Emmy voting, I have no idea. What I do know is that the people who like this show are really going to like it.

[Okri]

I've been meaning to watch Baby Reindeer, but I wonder if the ethically fractious part of it will turn voters off. Especially when they can just vote for Masters of the Air or something less discomfiting.

[Sabin]

Crazy to be talking about the Emmys again so soon after the last category. I have a feeling it's going to be an underwhelming affair full of sweeps. I think the category(ies) to watch are in the realm of Limited Series. This is a very zeitgeisty format.

One award that I think has to be pretty locked up is Jessica Gunning (Best Supporting Actress - Limited Series) for Baby Reindeer. I'm not quite done with it as a whole but I think it could actually win a lot more than just that. Gunning is terrific but she's the obvious awards bait. The whole series has a transfixing, can't-look-away-quality that almost feels like The Silence of the Lambs in the way puts us in the protagonist POV and creates a fearful world that I think (regardless of ones' own personal history) a lot of people will be able to relate to. It's like a trauma thriller. I think it might do very well with voters because it gets away with tackling a lot of taboos (transgender chasing, fatphobia, showbiz abuse) in thoughtful, powerful ways.

One more observation that occurs to me. We live in times that are very confusing but yet very confessional. Everyone wants to tell you their absolute truth but nobody knows if anything can be believed. Baby Reindeer isn't about that sensation but it captures it in a bottle.