Oscar Predictions Contest

[Greg]

Returning to my tradition, here is the most recent year, based on the years the films were released, where I correctly predicted a category:

2023:
Picture
Directing
Original Screenplay
Lead Actor
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
International Feature
Documentary Feature
Animated Feature
Live Action Short Subject
Animated Short Subject
Original Score
Film Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design

2022:
Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actress
Documentary Short Subject
Original Song
Sound
Sound Visual Effects

2021:
none

2020:
Makeup & Hairstyling

Supporting Actor continues to be my longest streak of correct predictions, at 8 years.

[Reza]

A reasonable deadline could be when the show begins.

Yes once the silly monologue begins by the host that could be the perfect time for the deadline. Its usually a while before the first Oscar is handed out.

[Jefforey Smith]

It's not my suggestion to make the deadline when the host begins the monologue. Rather that's what anonymous1980 suggested he might do in his personal communication with me. I, too, thought such a deadline could be nebulous. A reasonable deadline could be when the show begins.

[Big Magilla]

Jefforey,

I like your suggestion about the cutoff for contest entries being when the host starts his monologue but that can be just as tricky as getting the time right if you're not watching the posts live. However, even if the cutoff were an hour before the show begins, someone will always wait until the last minute.

Maybe if someone were to post CONTEST CLOSED as the show beings it would help. We can try that next time.

I don't know about other contests, but most of this year's winners were predictable. It could be that great minds think alike or that you and Sonic are both big fans of Alan Arkin.

On the other hand, if someone is copying your selections, maybe you should consider it flattery that they wait to see what you're predicting before making their own predictions.

It's supposed to be all in good fun!

[Sonic Youth]

I don't even know if I should respond to this or not. I will say, it looks like the main issue is the deadline. I remember when the deadline used to be before the actual broadcast started, and I've been accustomed to that. I'm embarrassed to see that the rule changed at some point a few years ago. I just... didn't pay attention. Sorry. No disrespect intended to anonymous. Look, the contests are fun but I really don't want to be the source of unpleasantness here so set up a special deadline for me so this won't be an issue. Or I'll abstain.

[dws1982]

If there is no actual prize involved, why does it matter?

[Jefforey Smith]

It was my understanding the deadline for entries was when ABC's red carpet show begins. I specifically waited until a couple of minutes before this deadline to submit so I wouldn't have to worry about someone copying my predictions, tweaking one or two categories, and tying with me. Once again, Sonic Youth's predictions are posted a few minutes after mine, duplicating my picks except for one category. And he submitted past the deadline.

This happened with the Golden Globes 2023 predictions and shortly thereafter with the Oscars 2023 predictions, when Sonic Youth tied with me both times. Doesn't he realize I know what's going on? When I run into people I used to attend Oscar parties with, I mention someone copies my predictions and ties with me.

If you're going to have rules, they need to be enforced. The message board clocks my choices registering at 5:28pm (it did not account for the switch to daylight savings time) -- two minutes before ABC's red carpet show began. Those entries posted past the deadline should not be counted.

I private messaged anonymous1980 about this. He replied the time differences make it challenging for him to monitor deadlines. He might change the deadline to when Jimmy Kimmel starts his opening monologue.

[Sonic Youth]

First time I've ever won. Wow! This was a nice surprise because I missed 3 categories and thought I blew it. And congratulations mlrg.

[Big Magilla]

Congratulations, everyone.

My line-by-line predictions were that Killers of the Flower Moon would go home empty-handed, but for some reason I left it out of the extra point mention which would have gotten me a few more points but not the win.

I said in another thread that I thought they might mention Navalny but I, too, thought it would be at the end of the in-memoriam segment, not at the beginning. Even if you leave him out of the contest and go to the first one who is pictured, it is Michael Gambon, who no one thought of either. It's almost as if the producers of the segment were playing us, opening and closing with people we weren't likely to guess.

Oh, well. It's all over now. Onto next year!

[mlrg]

Wow!!!

Thanks. This I my second time since we started doing these, so I can relate to Emma Stone today.

Thanks to all for keeping the board alive.

[anonymous1980]

THE RESULTS!!!

Okay. No one got any of the bonus questions. The first person in the In Memoriam montage was Alexei Navalny (but someone guessed he would be the last) and the last person is Tina Turner (but someone guessed she would be the first). The films to go home empty-handed were Past Lives, Maestro and Killers of the Flower Moon. No one got that. As for the double/triple points, only TWO people, Sabin and criddic, placed Emma Stone as their runner-up, earning them an extra point. The other categories went as expected. Not even the Poor Things sweep of the design awards or The Zone of Interest somewhat minor upset in Sound produced any double or triple points winners and the few who did attempt some big swings did not pay off. A lot of people did relatively well here though, the points are all bunched up together.

Without further ado, here are the results:

48 points = CalWilliam, Greg and Franz Ferdinand.
51 points = Mister Tee, dws1982 and nightwingnova
53 points = criddic3
54 points = anonymous1980, Big Magilla and Okri
56 points = Reza
57 points = Aceisgreat and Jefforey Smith
59 points = Sabin

and we have two winners this year, each one earning 60 points...

mlrg and Sonic Youth!

Congratulations! Especially to Sonic who, IIRRC, barely saw anything this year.

[dws1982]

Making a couple of no guts, no glory picks just to separate myself a little from the pack.

Picture: Oppenheimer
Leading Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leading Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Directing: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
International Feature: The Zone of Interest
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary Short Film: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Animated Short Film: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Original Score: Oppenheimer
Original Song: “What Was I Made For?”
Sound: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro
Costume Design: Barbie
Editing: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects: The Creator

BONUS TIE BREAKER

1. Last person: Harry Belafonte
2. First person: Glenda Jackson
3. Best Picture empty-handed: Past Lives

[Sonic Youth]

Picture: Oppenheimer
Leading Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leading Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Directing: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Animated Feature: Spider-Man
International Feature: The Zone of Interest

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary Short Film: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short Film: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Animated Short Film: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Original Score: Oppenheimer
Original Song: “What Was I Made For?”
Sound: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Makeup and Hairstyling: Poor Things
Costume Design: Poor Things
Editing: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One

BONUS TIE BREAKER

1. Last person: Alan Arkin
2. First person: Harry Belafonte
3. Best Picture empty-handed: Past Lives, Maestro

[Jefforey Smith]

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costume Design: Poor Things
Film Editing: Oppenheimer
Makeup & Hair: Poor Things
Production Design: Barbie
Score: Oppenheimer
Song: "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie
Sound: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
Animated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Documentary: 29 Days in Maniupol
International Film: The Zone of Interest
Animated Short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BONUS TIE BREAKER
1. Last Person: Alan Arkin
2. First Person: Ryan O'Neal
3. Best Picture nominees, empty-handed: Past Lives, Maestro

[Franz Ferdinand]

Salamat for hosting this, anonymous!

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (RU: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer)
Actress: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall (RU: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon)
Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling, Barbie (RU: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer)
Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer (RU: American Fiction)
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
International Feature: The Zone of Interest
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop
Live Action Short: Red, White and Blue
Animated Short: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
Original Score: Oppenheimer
Original Song: "I'm Just Ken", Barbie
Sound: Oppenheimer
Production Design: Poor Things
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costume: Poor Things
Editing: Oppenheimer
Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One
Makeup and Hair: Maestro

01. Last Person: Alexei Navalny
02. First Person: Harry Belafonte
03: Empty-handed: Past Lives, American Fiction