Categories One-by-One: Adapted Screenplay

[dws1982]

I have spoken disparagingly about Oscar podcasts once this morning, but the Next Best Picture predictions episode raised a good point in this category: We have good reason to believe that American Fiction could prevail in a general vote over Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest, because it has beaten all of those films at BAFTA or Critics Choice, or both. But this is the first face off between Barbie and American Fiction in this category, because Barbie was in original elsewhere.

I'm not saying I think Barbie will win, but to me that factor does give me pause. And not just in a "I think Barbie could win" type of way, although I think it could. But more than that: of the four other nominees, where are Barbie's votes likely to come from? Will it pull votes evenly from the other four nominees? Will it pull votes from one or two films disproportionately? If it does, that doesn't just have implications on Barbie's chances, but on other films as well. If it pulls more from American Fiction, could it do so in a way that could tip the category to Oppenheimer or Poor Things?

It's all impossible to know, of course. The smart money is on American Ficiton. I don't think it's a very good screenplay, but it uses a lot of writerly devices that will probably play well to voters. Barbie is the uncontrolled variable, and I do believe that it's significant, but since I don't know how it could affect the final voting, I am going to play it safe with American Fiction. As I said before, I don't believe this win will age well, though.

[Okri]

This American Fiction win, which seems inevitable, is not going to age any better than Jojo Rabbit's.

Yeah.... I'm feeling this more and more.

[dws1982]

This American Fiction win, which seems inevitable, is not going to age any better than Jojo Rabbit's.

[Big Magilla]

American Fiction definitely checks off the Conceptually Bold box that has won a fair number of screenwriting Oscars of late (though far more typically on the original side), plus it offsets any sense of being too-new-fangled with the domestic drama sections, that might win over more traditional voters. If the film wins the Scripter this weekend, it'll certainly have full momentum on its side...though, with no WGA till after Easter, it won't have been given the full test.

American Fiction did indeed win the USC Scripter Award last night continuing its momentum.

[flipp525]

Put me down for "four of the five here could win". I can't bring myself to believe so determinedly a non-dialogue piece as The Zone of Interest could win in anything other than a free-for-all pure accident. Of course, if I'm saying the other four are all in it, that's precisely the thing that creates such accidents -- remember Ex Machina winning visual effects, out of nowhere? But I still rank Glazer's script a distant 5th.

If you had read the novel The Zone of Interest and seen just how much of a complete overhaul the screenplay is compared to its source material, you might have a different opinion. I also think that your dialogue comment is weird for you. We all know that screenplays are much, much more than that.

There is nothing accidental about ZOI ending up on this list.

[Mister Tee]

Put me down for "four of the five here could win". I can't bring myself to believe so determinedly a non-dialogue piece as The Zone of Interest could win in anything other than a free-for-all pure accident. Of course, if I'm saying the other four are all in it, that's precisely the thing that creates such accidents -- remember Ex Machina winning visual effects, out of nowhere? But I still rank Glazer's script a distant 5th.

Beyond that, it's pure chaos: every film has an excellent argument for the win, and the order in which I discuss them should give no hint of what I consider their likelihood of victory.

I honestly think Poor Things has a perfectly good shot at the win. It's a wildly inventive story, with plenty of memorable dialogue and well-drawn characters. Maybe some of the older crowd will be put off by its sexual nature, but that didn't hurt it in the nominations stage.

The weird thing about Oppenheimer is, the movie's been seen as Best Picture Front-runner since opening weekend, is projected to win prizes above and below the line, is a perfectly literate, intelligent adaptation of a serious non-fiction work...yet, almost from the start, people have seemed to glide past it for screenplay. Not quite in Gravity/Revenant style, omitting it for nomination -- but maybe like The Shape of Water, which didn't even seem to run second in script, despite winning the big categories. The real shock moment for me was when the Broadcasters went for American Fiction -- not because I care about what they choose as a matter of taste, but because we all know what they do is chase Oscar winners. For them to pass on Oppenheimer in this category even while "predicting" it up and down the line indicated the film had some issues for the category.

Despite which, it could win. We're unused to sweeps in this day and age, but they can have centrifugal force if they're big enough (as Everything Everywhere showed us last year). I had literally no expectation The Return of the King could win adapted screenplay until it happened. Oppenheimer may be playing a similar game of possum.

American Fiction definitely checks off the Conceptually Bold box that has won a fair number of screenwriting Oscars of late (though far more typically on the original side), plus it offsets any sense of being too-new-fangled with the domestic drama sections, that might win over more traditional voters. If the film wins the Scripter this weekend, it'll certainly have full momentum on its side...though, with no WGA till after Easter, it won't have been given the full test.

A number of people (here and elsewhere) were bullish on Barbie winning when it was supposed to be an original contender. I wasn't sure about that (I thought any of Past Lives, The Holdovers or Anatomy of a Fall had a shot), and now we'll never know. Moving over to this category seems to make the win harder to achieve, but the film's advantages -- Inventive Approach with Witty Dialogue; desire to reward Gerwig -- remain considerable.

I'm not building to conclusion here. I remain fully up in the air with this category -- it may be the toughest major contest this year. Fortunately, I have nearly two weeks to make up my mind about it.

[Greg]

I’m betting against Oppenheimer here—perhaps foolishly—mostly because Oscar voters in recent years have preferred to spread the wealth.

That was the same logic I used last year when I predicted Original Screenplay would go to The Banshees Of Inisherin over Everything Everywhere All At Once.

[danfrank]

I think American Fiction has a very good chance here because, of these five films, it’s the one that really feels like a screenplay film, i.e., a film that any decent director with some good actors could make work. The others feel much more like directors’ films. What I think most viewers will remember about this film is its cleverness, its funny lines, and its messaging about the state of our culture. Screenplay stuff.

I agree with Sabin that Poor Things has a strong script and is much more than about Lanthimos. Nevertheless, it has Lanthimos’s imprint all over it. I doubt this will win.

Though I think it’s somewhat overwritten, Barbie has a very good chance here as well. It also has the cleverness factor, but mostly it has the Argoesque rally-‘round-the-snubbed-popular-director factor. Since Barbie won’t win picture, this would be the most obvious spot to honor Gerwig, and I think it’s a good bet.

I’m betting against Oppenheimer here—perhaps foolishly—mostly because Oscar voters in recent years have preferred to spread the wealth. Oppenheimer is likely to win several above-the-line AND below-the-line awards, and I think voters are going to be looking for worthy alternatives for some awards, including this one.

The Zone of Interest is the most director-y of all these films. I think it’s chances here are near zero,

[Big Magilla]

My pick would be American Fiction which, although it is an adaptation, is one of the most exhilaratingly original pieces of work we've seen on the screen in some time, spoiled only by that ridiculous triple ending but not so much so that it can't be ignored.

Cord Jefferson also won the Independent Spirit award where he gave the best acceptance speech of the evening. AMPAS members can expect a repeat.

[Sabin]

I think this is the tightest race of the year. I wouldn't discount any of them, including The Zone of Interest or especially Poor Things which would be my choice in this category. Poor Things is full of memorable dialogue. If it does run fourth in this category, I can only imagine it's because people think Emma Stone is making up her lines as she goes along. Stone is getting a lot of deserving acclaim for telegraphing how Bella ages/matures throughout the film but it's all according to McNamara's design. I wouldn't bat an eye if McNamara wins. It's a costume film and those have a historically strong grab on this category. Although McNamara has the problem of being the only person here who didn't direct his film (and much of the success of Poor Things has been attributed to Lanthimos' direction; unfair!).

Could it be Oppenheimer? The only reason why I'm leaning against it is because Nolan is already down for Best Director. The last time a film won for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay was Slumdog Millionaire (in a much weaker category) and the last time a director won Director and Adapted Screenplay was The Coen Bros. for No Country for Old Men.

The reason why this category is such a jump ball in my opinion is due to the presence of both American Fiction and Barbie, which have such an meta-textual quality to them. They're also both grab bags of commentary on race and gender respectively. I think the reason why like anonymous I'm leaning towards American Fiction is because I think Fiction has the benefit of being both highbrow and middlebrow. It's easy for people to thumb their nose at Barbie and wonder if it's actually art. But American Fiction gives viewers an entry point into the literary scene but it's also full of big, broad laughs that anyone can enjoy. I'm reminded of the secret successes of all those movies that win Best Picture while being about the industry is that they find the sweet spot of ribbing Hollywood about itself. I think American Fiction manages to get that effect even while being about the literary scene. Nobody in Hollywood could watch this film and think "This doesn't apply to me" but there's a nice, safe distance.

But if on Oscar night we find out, "Oh, the Academy really liked The Zone of Interest," it wouldn't surprise me if this is one of the categories where taking I don't know some 25ish% of the vote results in a win.

[anonymous1980]

The nominees:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

This is another contentious which I think is a genuine three-way race. Let's eliminate the ones with minimal chances: I think Glazer has been praised more for his direction than screenplay for The Zone of Interest so he's probably not winning here. Poor Things would personally get my vote but its precursor performance says it's probably not in contention.

Then we have the rest: American Fiction has won both the BAFTA and the Critics Choice which indicate it may be the front-runner here and its over-performance in nominations may indicate significant enough support for a win. But it wasn't up against Barbie in those races since it was nominated in Original. There is a possibility that they may want to give Greta Gerwig something for her success and achievement with Barbie. But then again, maybe the Oppenheimer juggernaut could prove very unstoppable and they just give Christopher Nolan everything.

My prediction: Leaning towards American Fiction but with WGA being after the Oscars who knows?