Category Fraud Alert (2023) -- Correcting Oscar

[sijmen]

My opinion: what happens if a character would die? If the movie/story would be over, the character is a lead. If the movie/story could still go on, the character is supporting.

Thus for me:
Ryan Gosling is supporting
Lily Gladstone is supporting
Jodie Foster is lead

And discussions are possible about:
Robert De Niro (feels like a lead to me, but I understand supporting)
Annette Bening (feels like supporting to me, but I understand lead)

[dws1982]

Gladstone - Lead
Foster - Support
Gosling - Lead

Gladstone could go either way; I think there is an argument for Support, as the film by design centers the criminals (essentially pointing the finger at the predominantly-white audience members), but she has a point-of-view, she is a window to the native perspective that is very important to the film, so I would agree with Lead, but wouldn't argue with anyone who felt she was support.

Foster is Support. Very high screen time for a supporting character, but she really has no reason to exist in the film beyond supporting Bening's character.

Gosling is complicated. The whole thing about Ken in this film is that he has no existence except in relationship to Barbie, but the arc of his character, which is significant, is his realization of that and his decision to fight against it. It drives much of the back half of the film. He is just too big of a character, and too important to the film, to be supporting in my opinion. Don't know that he would be nominated in lead though. I think he could probably jump ahead of Colman Domingo.

[Reza]

Really quickly: I'm enjoying how close at least one of these categories is. Very interested in hearing more thoughts on Gladstone. I'm still mulling it over myself.

Reza wrote
I think Sacha Stone may well be right and Bening might get a surprise win - fifth time lucky like Hayward, MacLaine, Sarandon & Moore.

Gladstone & Huller are nobodys. Stone already has one and its too soon for them to give her another. Bening is Hollywood royalty

It's possible but I doubt it. But here's the big difference I see with your comparison. Hayward, MacLaine, & Sarandon were in movies with much more support with Academy voters. MacLaine was headlining a Best Picture winner. Hayward and Sarandon weren't in Best Picture nominees but both of their films had Best Director nominations and a total of 6 and 4 nominations respectively. Julianne Moore is the outlier because her film was a sole nominee but she benefited from the sparsest Best Actress slate of my life.

I think Annette Bening has one thing going for her. She's basically the Best Actor or Actress + Best Makeup contender, except her film isn't nominated for Best Makeup. But it could've been. Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Renee Zellweger for Judy, and Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady. Save for Julianne Moore for Still Alice (again: sparsest slate of my life), those are the only times that a non-Best Picture-nominated Best Actress contender has won. Annette Bening in Nyad sort of fits that profile. But in every one of those cases, that winner arose from what I would consider weaker competition than what Annette Bening is up against.

I was going to say "If Annette Bening had won a single award prior to this moment, I'd be more bullish on her chances." But I realized she did win an award which is another problem for her. Best Actress from the AARP Movies for Grown-Ups Award. And that's somewhat appropriate because in all of the similarities you mentioned above it should be mentioned that Bening is about 10-15 years older than them upon the time of their winning. And this is a category that is broadly trending younger with their winners.

Recent winners that were closer to Bening's age? Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once and Frances McDormand for Nomadland. Both of which were Best Picture winners. A recent loser (pardon) that reminds me of Bening -- and it's so obvious -- is Glenn Close for The Wife. Both were films overtly about what it means to be an aging woman. Nobody thought either performance ranked among their best films or work. In Close's case, she lost to a "nobody" (as you say) who was in a Best Picture nominee and has gone onto be very much not a nobody in this industry.

I agree with everything you said.

My prediction is purely based on who Bening is married to. The "royalty" angle. Let's see if Beatty's name (and votes by older members in the Academy) carries her to a win. After all Bening IS due.

Having said that my individual actor predictions have never come through here. Except once. I predicted Mark Rylance would win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies. And this was when he was first cast in the Spielberg film.

[danfrank]

I think this is a good point. I'm due for a rewatch of the film however as the film recedes into memory the film doesn't really feel like DiCaprio's active journey either. He's as much a passive participant in his cruelty until the end.

I agree. However, even though his actions are manipulated those actions are what creates most of the drama. And, the story is told from his point of view. Plus, let’s face it: It’s Leonardo DiCaprio, and Marty lets him be the star.

[Sabin]

Adding into my Emma Stone thoughts (admittedly on the wrong thread):

I think the odds favor Stone due to being nominated for both SAG & BAFTA when her two strongest competitors aren’t (which basically makes her the undeniable frontrunner) and bc she enjoys dual hometown advantages with both SAG (for her Americanness) and BAFTA (for the film’s Britishness) she has a good shot at winning one, which on top to her Golden Globe will make her either an equal contender or a superior one. I won’t argue that it’s totally possible for her to still lose, but I’ll present this question: when was the last time a contender essentially had this advantage (being nominated for both instead of her competition; having a performance with SAG & BAFTA appeal) especially after winning a Golden Globe and ended up not winning the whole thing?

I looked it up. I was going to say Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side but it’s not like that film had an inherent Britishness/BAFTA appeal to it. Bullock ended up winning but also kind of a crappy lineup that year. Not like this year’s. You really have to go back to a previous awards era. That’s really good for Stone’s chances. In order to justify Gladstone (or Bening) winning, you have to construct a narrative around BAFTA voting. I recall that happening for Carey Mulligan in 2020, and look how that turned out.

Certainly anything could happen. Maybe there is a real narrative to be had around Gladstone (or Bening’s) lack of a showing at BAFTA. (My guess? They just didn’t really like either of the performances enough to nominate). But for Emma Stone to lose, she has to be pretty unlucky. Like, wrong performance in the wrong film. I don’t really get that vibe from where she stands right now. There’s no real backlash to her or her film. And she’s also in an excellent series right now (The Curse) that people love.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
I voted Lily Gladstone for supporting partly because she wasn’t on screen that much but mostly because her character didn’t drive the story. It was mostly about things being done to her, and her people. She was a pretty passive character until the very end—after she is no longer on-screen—when we learn through the radio show that she left her husband. Gladstone’s eyes were very expressive but I had little idea how she was perceiving things. It just didn’t feel like her story.

I think this is a good point. I'm due for a rewatch of the film however as the film recedes into memory the film doesn't really feel like DiCaprio's active journey either. He's as much a passive participant in his cruelty until the end.

Mister Tee wrote
I think maybe the most apt analogy for this sudden Bening push would be Art Carney 1974 -- a well-liked veteran whose film wasn't as big a deal as those of his competitors (three to-then un-Oscared superstars in best picture nominees). But, even there, Carney had been spoken of far more strongly as a best actor hopeful from the time Harry and Tonto opened; Bening this year has always seemed a throw-in.

Can we all agree that winning at SAG is an absolute must for Bening to have the slightest chance?

This is very flattering to the competition. I'll resist the urge to do comparisons.

I'd agree for Annette Bening's chances, but looking at the category more broadly I think we're possibly heading towards a(nother) jump ball finish in this category. Emma Stone seems like at least the nominal favorite to win the BAFTA. If she wins the SAG and the BAFTA, it's over. If she wins the SAG and Sandra Huller wins the BAFTA, then it's probably Emma Stone. But if Lily Gladstone wins the SAG and Sandra Huller wins the BAFTA (which I think is as possible as Stone winning), then we're not going to know at all what's going to happen on Oscar night.

One reason I think Gladstone wins the SAG is KOTFM is an ensemble nominee and Poor Things isn't. An ensemble win isn't necessary for a SAG win but it probably pointed to both Davis and Yeoh's wins.

[mlrg]

I think maybe the most apt analogy for this sudden Bening push would be Art Carney 1974 -- a well-liked veteran whose film wasn't as big a deal as those of his competitors (three to-then un-Oscared superstars in best picture nominees). But, even there, Carney had been spoken of far more strongly as a best actor hopeful from the time Harry and Tonto opened; Bening this year has always seemed a throw-in.

Can we all agree that winning at SAG is an absolute must for Bening to have the slightest chance?

I agree that Bening absolutely needs to win SAG, although one should ask Glenn Close how that turned out in 2019. Bening is already a SAG winner though (for American Beauty) so there might not be a sense of overdue from this group towards her.

If Gladstone does not win SAG I think she will be this season’s Angela Bassett, peaking too early and fading afterwards. And we all know that Gladstone won’t win the BAFTA. A fun race…

[Big Magilla]

The biggest problem with Reza's comment is that the actresses he named were all expected winners for those roles. Bening is not. As Sabin points out, the only award she won was the AARP for Grownups Award for which you have to be at least 50 years old to be eligible. None of the other Oscar nominees qualify and none were nominated.

There was a surprise winner, though, in the Best Actor category for which three of the nominees were current Oscar nominees: Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, and Jeffrey Wright. Domingo, who is generally considered to be the least likely to win an Oscar this year, won over both Giamatti and Wright who are both in films nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.

The case against both Rustin and Nyad is that many AMPAS members see them as glorified TV movies that hardly anyone saw outside of Netflix. That wouldn't have been an issue for AARP voters who see most films on Netflix or other streaming services. They don't get screeners.

[Mister Tee]

I think maybe the most apt analogy for this sudden Bening push would be Art Carney 1974 -- a well-liked veteran whose film wasn't as big a deal as those of his competitors (three to-then un-Oscared superstars in best picture nominees). But, even there, Carney had been spoken of far more strongly as a best actor hopeful from the time Harry and Tonto opened; Bening this year has always seemed a throw-in.

Can we all agree that winning at SAG is an absolute must for Bening to have the slightest chance?

[danfrank]

I voted Lily Gladstone for supporting partly because she wasn’t on screen that much but mostly because her character didn’t drive the story. It was mostly about things being done to her, and her people. She was a pretty passive character until the very end—after she is no longer on-screen—when we learn through the radio show that she left her husband. Gladstone’s eyes were very expressive but I had little idea how she was perceiving things. It just didn’t feel like her story.

[Sabin]

Really quickly: I'm enjoying how close at least one of these categories is. Very interested in hearing more thoughts on Gladstone. I'm still mulling it over myself.

Reza wrote
I think Sacha Stone may well be right and Bening might get a surprise win - fifth time lucky like Hayward, MacLaine, Sarandon & Moore.

Gladstone & Huller are nobodys. Stone already has one and its too soon for them to give her another. Bening is Hollywood royalty

It's possible but I doubt it. But here's the big difference I see with your comparison. Hayward, MacLaine, & Sarandon were in movies with much more support with Academy voters. MacLaine was headlining a Best Picture winner. Hayward and Sarandon weren't in Best Picture nominees but both of their films had Best Director nominations and a total of 6 and 4 nominations respectively. Julianne Moore is the outlier because her film was a sole nominee but she benefited from the sparsest Best Actress slate of my life.

I think Annette Bening has one thing going for her. She's basically the Best Actor or Actress + Best Makeup contender, except her film isn't nominated for Best Makeup. But it could've been. Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Renee Zellweger for Judy, and Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady. Save for Julianne Moore for Still Alice (again: sparsest slate of my life), those are the only times that a non-Best Picture-nominated Best Actress contender has won. Annette Bening in Nyad sort of fits that profile. But in every one of those cases, that winner arose from what I would consider weaker competition than what Annette Bening is up against.

I was going to say "If Annette Bening had won a single award prior to this moment, I'd be more bullish on her chances." But I realized she did win an award which is another problem for her. Best Actress from the AARP Movies for Grown-Ups Award. And that's somewhat appropriate because in all of the similarities you mentioned above it should be mentioned that Bening is about 10-15 years older than them upon the time of their winning. And this is a category that is broadly trending younger with their winners.

Recent winners that were closer to Bening's age? Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once and Frances McDormand for Nomadland. Both of which were Best Picture winners. A recent loser (pardon) that reminds me of Bening -- and it's so obvious -- is Glenn Close for The Wife. Both were films overtly about what it means to be an aging woman. Nobody thought either performance ranked among their best films or work. In Close's case, she lost to a "nobody" (as you say) who was in a Best Picture nominee and has gone onto be very much not a nobody in this industry.

[Reza]

With Gladstone out of Best Actress, Robbie would likely have gotten the fifth nod and Lee the sympathy vote for being passed over. It would then be a race between Stone and Hüller, but Sasha Stone would still be writing clickbait articles about how the Academy's old guard would vote for Bening, giving her a surprise win.

I think Sacha Stone may well be right and Bening might get a surprise win - fifth time lucky like Hayward, MacLaine, Sarandon & Moore.

Gladstone & Huller are nobodys. Stone already has one and its too soon for them to give her another. Bening is Hollywood royalty

[Big Magilla]

With Gladstone out of Best Actress, Robbie would likely have gotten the fifth nod and Lee the sympathy vote for being passed over. It would then be a race between Stone and Hüller, but Sasha Stone would still be writing clickbait articles about how the Academy's old guard would vote for Bening, giving her a surprise win.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Ordinarily, she would probably have been nominated in support, but I don't have a strong opinion either way so I'm fine leaving her where she is. Besides, a move to support would put her in competition with Da'Vine Joy Randolph making it difficult to choose between the two.

Personally, I don't think it's hard to choose between Gladstone and Randolph. Randolph is perfectly good but Gladstone in a walk.

I think if Lily Gladstone was pushed for supporting, this race would be over months out and I don't think anyone would much mind. It would be seen like Viola Davis in Fences in that supporting field. Just an almost unfairly balanced giant on the landscape, but nobody much minds about the competition.

That said, I recall my feelings about 2016 being that Davis was a lead unfairly pushed to supporting. Interesting that that might have been another race between a borderline supporting performance going up against Emma Stone.

I'll rewatch Killers of the Flower Moon to see how my feelings about Gladstone shake out. I will admit that early in the race, I had hoped Gladstone would have been pushed to supporting so as to allow other, more leading Best Actress contenders into the five. But now that I look at who might be the beneficiaries, it really just comes down to Natalie Portman (who the Academy was clearly not going to honor), Greta Lee (who I don't feel very strongly about), or Margot Robbie (great, but I'm not heartbroken) so that's no longer a motivating factor.

[Big Magilla]

I think you nailed the reason for Jodie Foster being in support of Annette Bening in Nyad, but I think the same applies to Ryan Gosling in support of Margot Robbie in Barbie.

Perception being everything, I think if Barbie had been called Barbie and Ken without changing anything in the film itself, it might be a different story because the title itself would give them equal footing. Had he been pushed for lead, regardless of which title was used, I doubt he would have been nominated over any of the actual nominees or several others such as Leonardo DiCaprio, Andrew Scott, Barry Keoghan, and Teo Yoo.

Lily Gladstone is a conundrum because by virtue of her connection to the story, she is the film's leading lady, but she is not given a lot to do. Ordinarily, she would probably have been nominated in support, but I don't have a strong opinion either way so I'm fine leaving her where she is. Besides, a move to support would put her in competition with Da'Vine Joy Randolph making it difficult to choose between the two.