Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

dws1982 wrote
I knew very early that the race was going in a different direction, but I hate that Jack Fisk is probably headed for a fourth-place finish for Killers of the Flower Moon. He doesn't work a ton, and is getting up there in age, so this could be his last real shot at winning, and it is incredibly good work. (The pool hall/barbershop; the masonic lodge; the details like the klansman/banker having a Birth of a Nation poster on his wall the first time we see him.)

I agree. I'm due for a rewatch of the film but the one thing I knew I loved about the film (and more than his fellow nominees) was how it created an entire world full of details like the ones that you mentioned.

I knew very early that the race was going in a different direction, but I hate that Jack Fisk is probably headed for a fourth-place finish for Killers of the Flower Moon. He doesn't work a ton, and is getting up there in age, so this could be his last real shot at winning, and it is incredibly good work. (The pool hall/barbershop; the masonic lodge; the details like the klansman/banker having a Birth of a Nation poster on his wall the first time we see him.)

Winners:
-Oppenheimer
-Poor Things
-Saltburn
-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST PERIOD ART DIRECTION
Killers of the Flower Moon

This one is a tough call, but I think Killers of the Flower which vividly evokes the 1920s will take it over Oppenheimer which is set over several decades albeit less vividly.

BEST FANTASY ART DIRECTION
Poor Things

My guess would be Poor Things which is set in a world of its own over Barbie which predominantly reimagines the more familiar Mattel world in which it is set.

BEST CONTEMPORARY ART DIRECTION
Saltburn

I would give it to Saltburn hands down, but the voters could really give this to any one of the nominees.

BEST ANIMATION ART DIRECTION
The Boy and the Heron

The Boy and the Heron had the most imaginative art direction but Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more popular so it wouldn't be a surprise if it won either.

Predictions:

PERIOD FEATURE FILM: Oppenheimer
Guessing this entirely based on what I perceive as industry love for Oppenheimer and what I perceive as indifference towards the competition.

FANTASY FEATURE FILM: Barbie
Would a tie surprise you? Not me. One of the most hotly anticipated Oscar match ups gets its first hint here. Even though the production design of Poor Things is more pervasive, world-building goes a long way here. Trademarked IP world-building, that is. Which is why I just like Wakanda, I suspect Barbieland triumphs over Lanthimosia.

CONTEMPORARY FEATURE FILM: John Wick: Chapter 4
I haven't seen enough of the films to make more than a vague guess. I've heard that John Wick has a lot of terrific sets and unlike Mission Impossible it's a franchise that didn't end on a box office sputter. I could Saltburn being an upset or Beau is Afraid for its dystopian Los Angeles and that long play sequence.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Actually a pretty tough category. It's hard to imagine anything not nominated for an Oscar winning. You'd think bringing the Mushroom Kingdom to life would be worth something. I'm guessing Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has this on lock because they didn't honor the first one in 2018.

flipp525 wrote
Several of those films got multiple acting nominations though. That’s not quite “collapse” territory for me. Wasn’t Selma even an Oscar winner for Best Original Song?

Fair point. My fault for posting during a work zoom.

flipp525 wrote
The Color Purple seems to be wholesale botching out (I haven’t seen it). Could Danielle Brooks’s somewhat assured nomination be in peril? Best Supporting Actress has been the most amorphous category this season.

I think the best thing that Brooks has going for her is how amorphous this category is. Like, if Triangle of Sadness was released this year, I think Dolly De Leon wouldn't have any trouble getting in.

I think Brooks has a problem that if a voter is going to write the film off, her role doesn't have that undeniable quality that will make them say "Except for Danielle Brooks." She has a good number, the most clearly emotional arc of the film, and a good late-in-the-film scene that demos her range, but it's all still very much of a piece with the rest of the film. If you don't like the film, she might be your favorite part of it, but you still might turn it off. I also think it hurts that she isn't very well known among voters. That didn't hurt Ariana DeBose (in a clearly more well-liked film) but it's never a good thing. I don't have a clue what the Best Supporting Actress five are going to look like (we'll have a better idea tomorrow) but I'm not confident that she'll get in. The only performance this year that I think would get in any year is Da'Vine Joy Randolph.

Interesting that this guild designated Poor Things as “fantasy” while the Set Decorators and Costumes guilds designated it as “period.” In my mind the Art Directors got it right. Though Poor Things certainly looks period-y it isn’t true to any particular period. It’s whimsical and really pure fantasy.

Several of those films got multiple acting nominations though. That’s not quite “collapse” territory for me. Wasn’t Selma even an Oscar winner for Best Original Song?

The Color Purple seems to be wholesale botching out (I haven’t seen it). Could Danielle Brooks’s somewhat assured nomination be in peril? Best Supporting Actress has been the most amorphous category this season.

It's underperforming First Man.

EDIT:
I'm not just looking at Oscar-y films that collapsed (like Empire of Light, She Said, etc). I'm looking at heavies, films that a fair amount of people pinned a lot of hopes on and were probably viable save for one problem: people didn't like them. The Color Purple is underperforming Babylon, House of Gucci, Steve Jobs, The Hateful Eight, Selma...

Ironically, I think the closest comp might be Nine.

When's the last time a film collapsed as completely in the run-up as The Color Purple has?

Art Directors Guild 2024 Nominations

https://variety.com/2024/artisans/ne...ns-1235866107/

FEATURE FILM NOMINEES:

PERIOD FEATURE FILM
“Asteroid City”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”

FANTASY FEATURE FILM
“Barbie”
“The Creator”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Poor Things”
“Wonka”

CONTEMPORARY FEATURE FILM
“Beau is Afraid”
“John Wick: Chapter 4”
“The Killer”
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Saltburn”

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”