Precursors: How'd They Do?

[OscarGuy]

Not all of them try to forecast the Oscars, but I'm a prognosticator, so I have to look at all factors.

[danfrank]

There’s something askew when “performance” is measured by how well these groups matched up with the Oscars. I know there are a few groups that deliberately attempt to do this, but not the ones I respect.

[OscarGuy]

I finally found an easier way to tabulate performance by the various precursors, so here's the initial analysis of the precursors for the 95th Oscars.

Let's start with the winner matches. I'll break everything down in groups and subgroups.

GUILDS:
All of these groups had a 100% success rate. This is more impressive with SAG, but PGA also linked up exactly. Also, some of these groups had multiple categories that could have foreshadowed the Oscar winner, so take groups lice ACE, Annies, MUAHS, MPSE, and VES with a grain of salt.

American Cinema Editors
Annie Awards
Cinema Audio Society
Directors Guild of America
Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists
Motion Picture Sound Editors
Producers Guild of America
Screen Actors Guild
Visual Effects Society
Writers Guild of America

Groups that completely whiffed:
Art Directors Guild
American Society of Cinematographers
Costume Designers Guild
Hollywood Music in Movies
ICG Publicists

MISC ORGS:
This represents groups that aren't technically guilds, but are not critics groups like BAFTA, Globes, etc.

USC Scripter was the only one with a 100% match rate, but they only have 1 category.
The Spirit Awards matched 6 of 8 winners
The OFTA predicted 65% of winners (13 of 20)

Groups that completely whiffed:
The Grammys (because of their irregular eligibility window)

BAFTA, for the record, only matched up 36.84% of awards or 7 of 19.

NARROW CRITICS & DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS:
These are the demographic groups like the Black Film Critics Circle, AAARP, etc.

The two best performers were GALECA (LGBTQ+ critics) and OAFFC (Online Association of Female Film Critics). They did 62.50% and 60% respectively or 5 out of 8 and 9 out of 15.

CRITICS:
This is all the regular critics groups. Large group, so I'll rank their successes for every group that predicted 50% or better.

Hollywood: 70% (14/20)
Denver: 64.29$ (9/14)
North Texas: 60% (6/10)
Nevada: 58.33% (7/12)
Critics Choice: 57.89% (11/19)
Las Vegas: 55.56% (10/18)
Phoenix (Society): 55.56% (10/18)
Philadelphia: 54.55% (6/11)
Oklahoma: 53.85% (7/13)
Southeastern: 53.85% (7/13)
Chicago Independent: 52.63% (10/19)
Hawaii: 52.63% (10/19)

This next set of statistics is less a predictor and more of a reflection. This set involves how many of the organizations' winners were Oscar nominees (in some cases, the winners were announced prior to the Oscar nominations, others were announced later, so your mileage here may vary)

GUILDS:
Annies 4 winners (mainstream, independent, short subject, and special production) were all Oscar nominees.
ICG Publicists' 1 winner was an Oscar nominee.
Make Up Artists & Hair Stylists had 5 categories, but only 4 winners (Elvis won two awards). 3 of the 4 films that won were also Oscar nominees.

I purposely left out DGA, PGA, SAG & WGA because their category complement matches the Academy's exactly (almost in the case of DGA) and they were all matching winners.

MISC ORGS:
Once again, USC Scripter did well, but they only have one category, so it's a bit obvious.
What isn't obvious is that all 8 of the Spirit Awards winners were Oscar nominees. While it's easy to note that the Spirit Awards often go for an Oscar nominee if they are nominated, they seldom feature an Oscar nominee in all of their categories, so impressive, but not too impressive.
18 of 19 BAFTA winners were Oscar nominees.
13 of 14 Golden Globe winners were Oscar nominees.
17 of 20 OFTA winners were Oscar nominees.
17 of 22 Satellite winners were Oscar nominees.

NARROW CRITICS & DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS:
I've been sticking to groups with 75% or greater matching, so there are only two here: GALECA had 7 of 8 winners match while OAFFC had 15 of 17.

CRITICS:
91.67% (New York Online)
90% (Iowa)
88.89% (Vancouver)
87.5% (Seattle)
85.71% (Austin, Denver)
85% (Hollywood)
84.62% (Boston Online, Oklahoma)
83.33% (Phoenix (Society))
80% (Georgia)
78.95% (Critics Choice, Hawaii, Online)
77.78% (San Francisco, St. Louis)
76.92% (Southeastern)
76.47% (Chicago)
75% (Central Ohio, NBR, North Carolina, Phoenix (Circle))

Now, let's take a look at the nominations. First, whether or not the eventual Oscar winner was nominated by the group. Obviously, this will be higher in groups that matched heavily with the Oscar winners selections, but might have some interesting results.

GUILDS:
100% match rate: ACE, ADG, Annie, CAS, CDG, DGA, MUAHS, MPSE, PGA, SAG, VES, WGA

MISC ORGS:
100%: AFI, USC
91.67% (Golden Globes)
90% (OFTA)
89.47% (BAFTA)

NARROW CRITICS & DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS:
100%: African American Critics, Black Critics, GALECA)
85%: Latino Journalists
84.62%: Women Journalists

CRITICS:
100% (Indiana, New York Online, Phoenix (Society), Southeastern)
88.89% (Las Vegas)
88.24% (San Diego)
86.67% (Houston)
85.71% (Central Ohio, Denver)
84.21% (Critics Choice)
80% (Georgia, Hawaii, North Texas)
77.78% (Chicago Indie, Vancouver)
76.47% (Online)
76.19% (Hollywood)
75% (Phoenix (Circle)

And finally, while I have data on groups that selected runners-up and whether or not those runners-up made it through, I think that's a bit too deep in the woods, so here are the groups whose nominations matched best with the Oscar nominations.

GUILDS:
100% (CAS)
80% (DGA)
76% (SAG)
63.64% (PGA)
60% (ASC, WGA)
50% (ACE)

MISC ORGS:
75.24% (OFTA)
70.71% (BAFTA)
70% (AFI)
61.43% (Globes)
60% (USC)

NARROW CRITICS & DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS:
66% (GALECA)
60.91% (Latino)

CRITICS:
74.19% (Vancouver)
70% (New York Online, Phoenix (Society))
64.44% (OFCS)
62.96% (Dallas-Fort Worth)
62.86% (Denver)
61.84% (Houston)
61.33% (DC)
61% (North Carolina)
60% (San Francisco)

And that's it for now. It's going to take a long time, but I hope to have more of this kind of information as I fill in my data, a long-standing project that doesn't get easier by the day. I wish it did, though.