I'm not predicting it, but I wonder if the armor that awards season has given The Daniels is truly enough. I mentioned before the DGAs that I felt the Daniels needed to win that to win the Oscar. Its a larger organization that, while not PGA populist, will lean populist with it's nominations. The organization, admittedly, is uniquely predictive, but I wonder....
- For the talk of it's popularity, Everything Everywhere All At Once has done surprisingly poorly internationally earning about half as much internationally as it did domestically. Compare that to the rest of this category where the international grosses outperform domestic. We also note it didn't do that well in BAFTA despite a strong nomination haul.
- Will there be a bigger-than-expected contingent of AMPAS that just can't grock with it? I don't think it's ageist to suggest that it's a very young film and the average age of AMPAS voters was 62 in 2012 - not sure how much they were able to alter that with all their inclusion initiatives.
Okay, done clutching at straws.
Categories One-by-One: Director
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Mister Tee
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Categories One-by-One: Director
The nominees:
Todd Field (TAR)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I see a few iconoclasts at GoldDerby are making Spielberg upset predictions. And that seems to me to sum up this race: if you're going to look for upset, the only real possibility is a "he wants it so bad/let's spring for the old guy" outpouring for Spielberg. I'd suggest that, were such a wave to actually exist, it would have shown up at Spielberg's long-time favorable turf, the Directors' Guild. But, in the spirit of "hey, anything can theoretically happen", let's leave it out there as possibility.
That's not, however, the way to bet. As someone who's been burned the exceedingly few times he's gone against the Directors Guild (I think blinded-by-Altman-hope 2001 was my last time), I go with its choice al the way.
Todd Field (TAR)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I see a few iconoclasts at GoldDerby are making Spielberg upset predictions. And that seems to me to sum up this race: if you're going to look for upset, the only real possibility is a "he wants it so bad/let's spring for the old guy" outpouring for Spielberg. I'd suggest that, were such a wave to actually exist, it would have shown up at Spielberg's long-time favorable turf, the Directors' Guild. But, in the spirit of "hey, anything can theoretically happen", let's leave it out there as possibility.
That's not, however, the way to bet. As someone who's been burned the exceedingly few times he's gone against the Directors Guild (I think blinded-by-Altman-hope 2001 was my last time), I go with its choice al the way.