Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

[Reza]

I didn't much like it, actually. It was interesting, and I found the Woody Harrelson character amusing, but the push for Dolly de Leon to be nominated is slightly puzzling to me. She was good, but her character only emerges as a factor in the last third of the film and even then, I wasn't really seeing any standout Oscar scene for her. I'm in the minority on this, though. I liked Force Majeure better.

Spot on!!

[criddic3]

I wonder how many voters saw Triangle of Sadness with an audience. The audience I was with LOVED it and comedies are always better with a crowd. If not, I wonder how the satire lands without a crowd. Östlund goes too obvious much of the time (to the point I could predict actions and lines of dialogue), but I suspect a couple of his targets (influencers, particularly) will work for them. It does play, though. If this category wasn’t so stacked, I think it would be a frontrunner. Right now, I think it’s a dark horse, at best.

I didn't much like it, actually. It was interesting, and I found the Woody Harrelson character amusing, but the push for Dolly de Leon to be nominated is slightly puzzling to me. She was good, but her character only emerges as a factor in the last third of the film and even then, I wasn't really seeing any standout Oscar scene for her. I'm in the minority on this, though. I liked Force Majeure better.

[criddic3]

If you haven't heard, this is the biggest year ever for the Irish at the Oscars. Not Irish Americans, who go way back to Cagney, Ford and Huston, but native-born Irish. A record five Irish actors in contention, McDonagh's film in all top categories, the first film ever nominated in the International category, even a short that could win. And were they all to triumph, would the headline say A Great Day for the Irish? We know it wouldn't; we already got OscarsSoWhite after BAFTA. My ancestors would be startled to discover that, over a century, their clan has somehow evolved into The Man.

Jessie Buckley would have made it six Irish actors in contention.

And all a week before St. Patrick's Day!

[Big Magilla]

If you haven't heard, this is the biggest year ever for the Irish at the Oscars. Not Irish Americans, who go way back to Cagney, Ford and Huston, but native-born Irish. A record five Irish actors in contention, McDonagh's film in all top categories, the first film ever nominated in the International category, even a short that could win. And were they all to triumph, would the headline say A Great Day for the Irish? We know it wouldn't; we already got OscarsSoWhite after BAFTA. My ancestors would be startled to discover that, over a century, their clan has somehow evolved into The Man.

Jessie Buckley would have made it six Irish actors in contention.

[Mister Tee]

Going to try and pop in on those threads I've missed so far, during my convalescence.

Spike Lee joked 5 years ago that, every time he's up for Oscars, somebody's driving somebody. Martin McDonagh has to feel like, every time he's in real contention for a screenplay award, there's a whacked-out sci-fi premise movie with a side order of diversity, which gets the Internet rooting against him as The White Guy.

SIDEBAR: If you haven't heard, this is the biggest year ever for the Irish at the Oscars. Not Irish Americans, who go way back to Cagney, Ford and Huston, but native-born Irish. A record five Irish actors in contention, McDonagh's film in all top categories, the first film ever nominated in the International category, even a short that could win. And were they all to triumph, would the headline say A Great Day for the Irish? We know it wouldn't; we already got OscarsSoWhite after BAFTA. My ancestors would be startled to discover that, over a century, their clan has somehow evolved into The Man.

McDonagh's white-guy-ness is an issue for him, but, of course, the main one is Everything Everywhere's potency in the best picture race. This race has, actually, disquieting echoes of the 2017 race he lost -- in both cases, he took the Globe and BAFTA, while losing the Broadcasters and a WGA for which he was ineligible. The differences don't play to his advantage: Three Billboards had far bigger top-line wins (SAG and BAFTA), and Get Out didn't have near the widespread support of Everything Everywhere.

And yet, and yet... There's a possibility a good number of voters know all this history, and will not want McDonagh to suffer the same fate twice. And Banshees has qualities -- the ones okri describes below -- that have often snagged screenplay Oscars (yes, they like out-there concepts, but they also like dialogue-heavy/whimsical-but-serious, a slot Banshees fills nicely). It''s also possible voters, having chosen the two Daniels under film and director, will feel they don't need 3 Oscars apiece.

Or not. We'll find out in something like 48 hours.

[Okri]

While I complained about adapted screenplay, I’ve got not such issues with this category. This category is quite stacked. In another year, any of the five would be a viable/top tier candidate to win

The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness

The statistics I posted for adapted screenplay are less relevant here as all five nominees were nominated for best picture, but for comparison, here they are (again, 1957 and onwards)

Best Picture Winner: 16
Best Picture Nominee: 35
Nominated elsewhere, but not best picture: 13
Only nominated here: 1

I think that jibes with our normal thinking about this category – willing to depart from the best picture stream far more frequently. Original screenplays tend to be more “concept” than adapted screenplay and the range of genres that win seems to be greater. Now, I think this category has a leading candidate, but less a sure-fire winner and more a guy that broke into the lead in a middle-distance track and field race with a pack behind him.

I’m puzzled that TAR didn’t make a bigger dent in this race, to be honest. It operates on a vast canvas and is loaded with ideas. It’s an issue film about very topical issues and a character study so vivid it convinced people it was a biopic. But it’s very dramatic in a category that skews more comedic than normal. The nomination is the reward for Field and frankly, I cannot wait to see what he does next. Similarly, I’m fascinated that The Fablemans didn’t emerge stronger this Oscar race. A lot of organizations that I thought would go for it more heavily just… didn’t. While organizations consistently cited the screenplay as a worthy element even when cool on the film (see BAFTA), those said organizations were definitely cool on the film (see BAFTA). I’m also fully into Tony Kushner’s reconfiguration as a screenwriter, which I know is not a universally held opinon [his next play is about Trump and to be honest, while Kushner is undeniably the guy I’d want to see tackle him if I wanted anyone to…. I’m not sure I want anyone to right this moment].

I wonder how many voters saw Triangle of Sadness with an audience. The audience I was with LOVED it and comedies are always better with a crowd. If not, I wonder how the satire lands without a crowd. Östlund goes too obvious much of the time (to the point I could predict actions and lines of dialogue), but I suspect a couple of his targets (influencers, particularly) will work for them. It does play, though. If this category wasn’t so stacked, I think it would be a frontrunner. Right now, I think it’s a darkhorse at best.

When Everything Everywhere All At Once premiered, we all thought – potential for Yeoh and screenplay – but not much else. Now it’s a genuine Oscar hit and a potential winner in several categories. I have to admit that I find the multiverse concept just tiring in general but even within that, I don’t find the screenplay all the deep or interesting. To misquote Eric, it’s basically a random AI generator of memeable moments – the rock talk, the dildo fight scene, hot dog fingers– and I can see voters distanced from the silliness of whole thing, particularly in this category. But if they were, would they have given it as many nominations as they did?

The Banshees of Inisherin really feels like it could be a classic screenplay winner. Banshees is a well-liked film, with 9 nominations (7 of them above the title). It’s got a light touch but a serious heart. It’s of piece of McDonagh’s stage and film oeuvre and he is an Oscar winner. For short film, but still. And honestly, if the film can only win one Oscar, doesn’t it feel like this one would be it? The downside…. As much as he gets nominated, he struggles stateside for victories. He’s the most nominated playwright to never win a Tony (with five nominations). His films tend to do better at BAFTA, so when BAFTA went a different way for best picture, didn’t you inwardly reduce his chances overall? I really like him as a writer and think this would be as perfect a victory as you can get. I'm trying to go through Oscar history for supporting statistics, though we all know what statistics are.

I think Banshees will take it, but I ended this write-up being less confident in that than I was at the beginning.