Categories One-by-One: Best Supporting Actress

[Big Magilla]

This is the category I struggled with most this year, not in terms who should/will win, but in terms of who the nominees should be/should have been, out of seven strong contenders and two spoilers.

The spoilers are, of course, Angela Bassett and Jamie Lee Curtis.

I thought Angela Bassett should have been the second black actress to win Best Actress for What's Love Got to Do with It behind Whoopi Goldberg in The Color Purple, who like Bassett, sadly didn't win. So, for a while I was content with her nomination but not for long when it came at the exclusion of Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy in Women Talking, and Nina Hoss in Tár,

Jamie Lee Curtis, I dismissed out of hand. I thought her performance was one of the worst of the year. If it was nominated for anything, it should have been for a Razzie.

The only nominee I never considered replacing among my personal choices was Kerry Condon whose performance was so good I still don't get why her win should be in doubt.

I liked Hong Chao in The Whale but her nomination came as a surprise to me considering that she is missing for a good portion of the film. In the end, however, she and Condon are the only two nominees who are on my shortlist along with De Leon, Buckley, and Foy.

Sorry, Nina Hoss who Chao replaced for Hoss' even shorter role in Tár. Sorry, too, Stephanie Hsu who had been there temporarily until I rewatched Women Talking and brought Claire Foy back to join co-star Jessie Buckley.

Should win: Kerry Condon
Will win: Kerry Condon

[Mister Tee]

I've written so much about this race already, in assorted spots, that I feel like I'm joining the discussion already in progress.

The thing about the Angela Basssett candidacy is, it really had no reason for being. Prior to the Globes/Broadcasters' attempt to make her a thing, you know what she'd won this season? The coveted prize from the Central Florida Film Critics. Jamie Lee Curtis didn't have exactly impressive back-up, either, but she did win 4 or 5 of those regional groups. Stephanie Hsu won half a dozen, as well. Kerry Condon was, of course, the over-achiever of the pack, punching out 15 prizes, including the credentialed one from the National Society.

Bassett also wasn't attached to a best picture nominee, like those other three, nor was she hooked up to a credible lead candidate, the way Hong Chau was. And she was in a Marvel movie, for Christ's sake; a Marvel sequel. On what basis does all that lead to becoming an Oscar front-runner? The desire of bloggers (a group that includes the Broadcasters) to make the admirable Bassett such.

I'd have held onto this stance even had Bassett won the SAG Award, but it seems to me her losing there -- on what appeared an easier track -- makes the argument against her considerably stronger.

The question is, does that SAG win by Curtis merely damage Bassett, or does it move Curtis firmly into the race? We're still groping our way to an understanding of SAG's predictive power, in this era when lots of non-actors (AFTRA folk, but also the dread influencers) have been brought aboard. Last year, they matched AMPAS completely, but, recall: BAFTA, which followed, also matched in all but the actress category (where none of their nominees were Oscar contenders). The year prior, they'd done horribly, missing actor and actress, and giving ensemble to a movie that won zero Oscars.

Curtis -- in fact, everything to do with Everything Everywhere there -- can be explained away as most popular mainstream movie, especially with the younger/Internet crowd, thus apt to dominate the new-era SAG voting. I'm not ready to dismiss her out of hand...but neither am I ready to take a "SAG reset the table" stance on this (or any other) race.

It may be that one of the SAG/BAFTA winners will repeat -- except for the anomalous Emily Blunt/Regina King, that has been the case every year post-2005. But it's also possible that the loud early success of the Bassett campaign will effectively keep her in the race, despite missing at those two spots. We've become very accustomed to binary races the past two decades, and we may have forgotten just how much more complex competitions can get when there are as many as three prominent candidates. Remember the visual effects category in 2015? It was very hard to narrow down the field, since Mad Max Fury Road, The Revenant and The Martian had all been best picture-nominated...and The Force Awakens had arrived with a critical/commercial bang at year's end. The result there was, as Mark Harris put it, the single fullest surprise result in more than a decade, as the utterly unpredicted Ex Machina was the name called out.

I'm not saying something like that's sure to happen...but I think it's a possibility, and why I'll still hold up that Hong Chau scenario dws mentions, even though the rest of the Internet says she's the one can be fully ruled out. When the race is broad, fewer things are off the table.

I see Sasha Stone's site has come up with a template for this year's awards, finding "Likely Winner" in every category, even though predictions are significantly split in a number of categories (including Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay). But she hasn't even posted a leader in this category; that's how completely formless it is. To which I say, thank you; this is payback for all the races these folks have ruined in the past 20 years.

[anonymous1980]

This is looking more like the Sylvester Stallone in Creed nomination as we get closer and closer to the actual awards.

Both directed Ryan Coogler coincidentally.

I'm leaning towards Condon in this one but a Curtis or Bassett victory wouldn't surprise me too much.

[Big Magilla]

So, I've been misinformed again! Happens a lot lately.

I didn't catch that live, just read a recap of it somewhere.

I like Hong Chau but her role in The Whale is limited despite a couple of strong scenes. Not sure how The Menu factors into support for her unless it's to underscore her versatility.

[flipp525]

Curtis confirmed the rumor on the SAG red carpet that she will be in Season 3 of The White Lotus presumably in the kind of high-profile role that Jennifer Coolidge had for the last two years, so we can expect to see her at all the TV awards shows next year and perhaps beyond. She doesn't need an Oscar to keep her career going. The same is true for Bassett who has had several high-profile TV roles over the last few years.

Not quite. Haley Lu Richardson dragged her over to the microphone and said that she should be in the new season and JLC said that she’d love to (but immediately asked where it films - not L.A., Jamie…)

I wouldn’t call that a confirmation that she’s in the next season or the confirmation of a rumor. The “rumor” (such as it is) started right there on the red carpet.

To add to the Hong Chau speculation, I think quite a few voters will throw votes her way to recognize her fantastic turn in The Menu (a film I would argue she outright stole) in addition to her memorable turn in The Whale.

[Big Magilla]

Neither Curtis or Bassett fit the profile of a Don Ameche out-of-the-past or let's see more of Ruth Gordon, Helen Hayes, or Ingrid Bergman type of win. If anything, they compare to Glenn Close, who they keep putting off for a win because they know she'll pop up in something else sooner or later.

Curtis confirmed the rumor on the SAG red carpet that she will be in Season 3 of The White Lotus presumably in the kind of high-profile role that Jennifer Coolidge had for the last two years, so we can expect to see her at all the TV awards shows next year and perhaps beyond. She doesn't need an Oscar to keep her career going. The same is true for Bassett who has had several high-profile TV roles over the last few years.

Condon fits the narrative of journeyman actress that wins this award more often than any other. I would not bet against her.

[dws1982]

The nominees:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once

I don't know if this is the toughest acting category, but to me this is the one that has the most possible winners. This is one of those acting categories where I look at it and I think, "something's not working here". Sometimes those lead to a status quo choice, but sometimes those open the door for a surprise.

Globes (Bassett), SAG (Curtis) and BAFTA (Condon) have given us three different winners. Stephanie Hsu has won some things, but of the fringe variety, like Online Society of Female Film Critics and Greater Western New York Film Critics Association. Hong Chau's only win is fairly fringe as well--New York Online Film Critics--but at least that group has been around for awhile.

The bloggers latched onto Bassett quite early, especially once they saw there was some critical support for her. The Globes obliged--we commonly joke on them for going for the young and the new, but they go for old veterans a lot too--and Critics Choice did too, in the least surprising result of the year. It would not have been at all surprising to see BAFTA go along, because they do often like to Oscar predict, and most of us thought SAG would because they are the most populist group. But they didn't, and whether that was because of Everything Everywhere love, or because Curtis jumping Bassett on the career narrative, or because of reluctance to throw acting wins at a Marvel movie, I think everyone who was questioning Bassett's chances was right to do so. I'm not ruling her out, but I think even the bloggers have accepted her possible loss to a degree such that I don't think the day-after discourse if she loses will be as bad as I had feared.* This is looking more like the Sylvester Stallone in Creed nomination as we get closer and closer to the actual awards.

But if not Bassett, then who? I talked about "hooks" in the Best Actor category, and while I think that hooks aren't really as necessary in Supporting categories, where voters, I think, look at things a little differently, but between Curtis and Hsu, I think that Curtis, at a minimum, has much more of a hook on career points than Hsu. Hsu has the much more substantial part, but she was mostly an unknown actress before this, and is still not one of the main things people are talking about with the film. Even people who love her in the film are not talking about her Oscar bid that much. Curtis meanwhile, is always out there--in my opinion, too much out there, talking too much, leaning into "nepo baby" discourse. I never would've considered her anything but fourth in this lineup until Sunday, but maybe she can win. I just think it would be such a strange win: Even fans of the film mostly see this as a coattail nomination; even people who win acting awards at least somewhat on career points tend to have a little bit more to justify it than this. To me, this would be about the weirdest acting win since Don Ameche in Cocoon in terms of, I get it as a career thing only; there's nothing at all in the performance to justify it.

I think Tee has suggested that we keep an eye on Hong Chau as a possibility, and I agree. He cited two Supporting races that ended with surprising results: 1998 Supporting Actor and 2000 Supporting Actress. Both of those were lineups that didn't quite seem to work. No one quite made sense as the frontrunner. 98 Supporting Actor, Ed Harris won the Globe, Robert Duvall won SAG, and not that it matters (because it was after the Oscars then), but Geoffrey Rush won BAFTA. James Coburn, in a movie that voters probably didn't like much more than The Whale, won, probably helped out by the fact that voters were watching his movie to see the nominated Best Actor performance. And Supporting Actress two years later, Kate Hudson wins the Globe, Judi Dench wins SAG, and Julie Walters wins BAFTA (this was the first year the BAFTAs were pre-Oscar), but Marcia Gay Harden, again probably in a not super well-loved movie, and again with nominated Lead Actor, won. I do think that some voters who watch The Whale may lean towards Hong Chau, even if they go elsewhere in Actor.

But I think I may lean towards Kerry Condon. She is in a movie that is broadly liked, to the tune of 9 nominations, that probably isn't going to win many awards. Not that voters get together to discuss fairness or how to spread wealth, but I think a lot of people will know that if Farrell seems likely to fall short, and Ke Huy Quan seems unstoppable in Supporting Actor, this is a place where they can support Banshees and see that support pay off.

I'm very much not confident here and am open to other arguments.

* - Or maybe not...The Little Gold Men podcast this week had a post-SAG discussion of the acting races and the Best Supporting Actress discussion was all just a lot of hand-wringing about what if Bassett doesn't win, but without any real discussion of her actual performance.