The Last Three Spots in Best Picture

[Mister Tee]

I’ve been dealing with the cold-that-won’t-quit-me, and haven’t had the energy to do my usual pre-nominations thumbsuckers. I’m going to try to drop a few posts over the next day or two, to get my licks in before Tuesday morning changes the conversation. As to this subject:

Last year, I did pretty well scoping out the list of ten best picture nominees. I started with the DGA five, all of which carried over. I was confident Drive My Car would, contra the DGA, get a directing (+screenwriting) nomination, which I thought added up to a best picture slot. I then burrowed into the screenplay categories for CODA, King Richard, Don’t Look Up. My only missed-guess was tick…tick…Boom! in place of Nightmare Alley.

This year, it doesn’t seem nearly as straightforward.

I do start out the same, assuming the DGA five will appear (as Sabin notes, the one miss, by Dragon Tattoo, was a decade ago, and in a not-automtically-10 year).

But I’m considerably less confident about what changes happen in the directing category this year. I guess (and fervently hope) Maverick is 86-ed; I can’t rule out McDonagh being bumped yet again (directors omitted once while their films are in top contention can have it happen again, as James L. Brooks and Steven Spielberg can attest).

But the list of people who might fill the vacancy (or two) is quite long. Since the membership expansion, we’ve had a number of foreign-language directors pop up here (including two – Pawlikowski/Vinterberg – who failed to repeat on the best picture list). I see some people putting Berger into that slot, for All Quiet…but I wonder if he’s really the sort to nab such a position. That foreign spot has seemed to go to auteurists/art films -- while the people voting for All Quiet are more Oscar traditionalists (the opposite of those who’d vote for Cold War or Drive My Car), and Berger seems closer to a journeyman director. Rajamouli also doesn’t seem quite the type, despite his critical plaudits. I know he’s had no encouragement in this award season, but Park Chan-wook seems to fit the profile better. Or, though his film is in English, Ruben Ostlund.

And there’s always a chance the substitute could come from an English-language indie…meaning Charlotte Wells or Sarah Polley. Any of these folk, if they take the nomination, would have a decent chance at making the best picture list, in tandem.

After that, I’d normally look to the screenplay hopefuls for help, but I’m not sure that works as well this year, either. Given the quality split between adapted and original this year, it’s very possible something that misses in original would be a more likely best picture contender than several of those that show up on the weaker adapted slate.

All this leaves me without the guidance I successfully used last year, so I’m forced to grope around a bit more to fil out those outside-the-DGA-five spots. What follows are my thoughts on each of the candidates Anonymous proposed and Sabin subsequently discussed:

I’m with Sabin, that I don’t assume Avatar: the Way of Water will crack the ten. It could, of course, but I can’t lock it in -- in part because of the BAFTA snubs, but as much from the fact that I don’t think Oscar voters are so into sequels, and they’re already using one slot for Maverick; a second sequel might be a bridge too far. (I’m disregarding Wakanda Forever and Glass Onion altogether, despite the PGA binge.)

(Someone at another site rejoindered that four of last year’s ten nominees were remakes, so voters aren’t exactly finicky. But I’d answer that: 1) CODA may have been a remake, but it was of something most voters had never seen, or even heard of; 2) Dune was a complete re-imagining of a movie that wasn’t exactly widely seen; and 3) West Side Story and Nightmare Alley were major works from Oscar-winning directors in a year with few alternatives – and even there, their ultimate win haul amounted to 1 prize.)

Elvis probably takes the 6th spot, to judge by the BAFTA and Globes showing. I’m slightly wary of a movie not likely to secure writing or directing nods…but I guess lead actor plus costumes/production design/sound should be enough – coupled with its status as one of the only grown-up movies to make money this year.

So, then, why am I not more bullish on The Woman King? It has the same attributes -- albeit with about half the (still impressive) gross. It just doesn’t seem enough of a thing to me, but I could be wrong. Maybe the box office – and Viola, plus, I don’t know, a costuming nod? -- will carry it, in the end.

I see a lot of people now predicting The Whale, largely based on its PGA appearance, and its (relatively) strong box-office. The box-office may be more Aronofsky-related than anything specific to this film; he, along with Wes and Paul Thomas Anderson, seems to have developed enough cult following that any film he does accumulates a respectable gross, even in pandemic times. The PGA thing is a stronger point: the film is so unlike what PGA normally values, showing up there would seem to indicate unusual strength. Plus the film has a certain best actor nomination, a likely screenplay nod, and a potential Hong Chau citation to propel it along. You have to lean its way.

BAFTA doesn’t make anything a sure thing – remember, The Mauritanian got top category nods two years ago – but All Quiet on the Western Front’s boatload of nominations certainly suggests it’s going to make the Academy’s best picture list, even if it (as I suggest) misses best director. The more I think about it, I believe this film might come closest to what many voters would most like to honor: serious drama/history, made in classical style. If it didn’t have so many strikes against it (subtitles, Netflix, being a remake of a true classic), it might well be winning this race outright.

Triangle of Sadness is just a weirdness. Despite its Cannes prize, it wasn’t close to a critics’ favorite, which showed in its beyond-Dolly absence from year-end prizes. But, counter-intuitively (given its art-house profile), it seems to have become something of a popular favorite. If it shows up with an original screenplay nod and a DeLeon nomination, I would expect it to make the best picture roster.

If I hadn’t seen RRR, I’d probably think it has no chance. It’s received absolutely no attention from the Guilds (costumes or production design should certainly have got attention), and its only showing in the Academy shortlists is the song. But the combination of critics’ awards, rumors of Academy enthusiasm, and my own crazy affection for the film, make me think that, if any film can just break through the precursor requirements and over-perform, this is it. Contrarily, all that love for the film could be confined to Naatu Naatu. It’s one of the things we’ll find out Tuesday morning.

Aftersun’s strongest hope is the fact that the people who love it REALLY love it. I’m mostly of the mind that a Mescal nomination is probably the best it can hope for. But, if it nails down a tough original screenplay nomination – and, certainly, if Wells gets the directing slot -- it can make its way onto the best picture slate.

Living, I think, is a dream too far. I’m not even 100% sold on Nighy holding onto the best actor slot. The film has barely been released: here on the Upper West Side, it’s not even been strong enough to secure one of the Lincoln Center arthouses. It’s playing at a tiny, two-flights-up converted auditorium that only has shows on weekends. I know our standards are shifting constantly as to what constitutes commercial success these days, but this seems way too out there for me.

Women Talking and Babylon are clinging to life largely based on their SAG nominations. Neither film has drawn much of an audience, or precursor attention. Women Talking will probably secure the adapted screenplay citation, but all talk of Jessie Buckley/Claire Foy/Ben Whishaw nods has about disappeared. Babylon might end up with a greater nominations haul – costumes/production design/score and maybe Brad Pitt are very much live possibilities – but the film in toto just has too much of a flop narrative surrounding it.

So, all this said, what would be my projected slate (subject to change at any moment)?

The DGA five: Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, TAR, Top Gun (though the last pains me)

Next most likely: Elvis, All Quiet on the Western Front

Toss-ups: Triangle of Sadness, The Whale, The Woman King

…with Avatar and RRR right behind.

Can’t recall ever being as uncertain, since they bumped it to ten.

Something to ponder: is picking the lower echelon nominees so difficult because films that are the center of the race this year -- a whacked-out sci-fi premise about multiverses, a very tiny and sad actors' showcase, a 2 1/2 hour art film about a conductor's crack-up -- are films that would normally themselves be lower-tier candidates?

[Sabin]

Excellent question, Irvin. I was thinking about writing something very similar to this the other day with one exception: I think there are four spots open. I don't at all think that Avatar: The Way of Water is locked in and currently I would not be predicting it for a nomination. My hunch is that its success is appreciated but voters aren't wowed beyond its technical achievement.

We're going to get a little bit of additional clarity tomorrow when the BAFTAs are released but currently the calculus is pretty interesting. I agree with you that we have three locks that have shown up for all three precursors (The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and The Fabelmans). We have two more that showed up for the DGA and PGA and they are TÁR and Top Gun: Maverick. Since the Best Picture roster expanded to ten, only one film has scored both of those nominations and failed to show up for Best Picture: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Beyond that, we have two SAG nominees, both of which are in box office free-fall (Babylon, Women Talking) and five PGA nominees which are all box office successes. I'm going to rank Elvis at sixth place in terms of certainty of nomination despite only having a PGA. Even if it doesn't show up for a BAFTA tomorrow, I just have a hard time imagining voters passing on this one.

Vying for spots 7-10:
*Avatar: The Way of Water (don't think it's happening)
*Babylon
*Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
*Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
*The Whale
*Women Talking

Beyond that, I would agree that there are a few films waiting in the wings as well. I would list:
*Aftersun
*All Quiet on the Western Front
*RRR
*Triangle of Sadness

I don't think Living is going to make the cut. I haven't seen it but it just doesn't seem like it's making an impact. I don't see Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio making it out of the animation feature lineup. And The Woman King's impact feels so long ago I don't think Viola Davis is making it in at this point. I'm pretty dubious on Aftersun's chances but I do think there some real passion behind it.

I see four spots and ten contenders and unless the BAFTAs wade outside my top six (Banshees, EEAAO, Elvis, Fabelmans, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick) we're really not going to know until nomination morning. They're all basically have similar odds.

This is where I'm at right now:

7. The Whale: it's not unsuccessful at the box office. It's apparently well-liked by actors. I think it's going to make it in the Best Picture lineup.

8. RRR: this is where enthusiasm really comes into play. The film has been screening constantly. I have a very easy time imagining people seeing this film and being enthusiastic about it. The campaign is being run by the people who ran Drive My Car's campaign last year.

We are officially in "I have no idea" territory and so I am predicting All Quiet on the Western Front for what sets it apart from Avatar 2, Black Panther 2, and Knives Out 2. Because it is an adaptation of a classic, it's a pretty good one, and I think we're at a point where something like that is a novelty.

For my last spot, I am honestly torn between three films: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Triangle of Sadness.

People are saying that "Babylon might Nightmare Alley." But it's just not a very extravagant experience. The look of it is pretty low-key if not anachronistic. Also, I'm not sure Nightmare Alley would get in against this crowd.

I was counting against Black Panther: Wakanda Forever but it's in the running for a lot of craft categories. Its costume design is especially standout. And I started thinking: let's say you love the first Black Panther and let's say you were really affected by Chadwick Boseman's passing. Then wouldn't you put it pretty high on your Best Picture ballot?

Finally, Triangle of Sadness which benefits from Neon and my impression that it is well-liked. I think this film is such a winner with a ton to recommend about it but it came out a while ago and I don't know how buzzed it is.

I am going with Triangle of Sadness only because I don't get the sense that this is the year where Marvel scores its second Best Picture nominee.

Looking forward to everyone else's thoughts.

[Big Magilla]

All Quiet on the Western Front
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

[anonymous1980]

There's an interesting situation in Best Picture this year. It's guaranteed 10-slots and it's generally agreed that seven films are pretty much locked for nominations: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything, Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, TAR and Top Gun: Maverick. That leaves three slots open.

And there's as many as TWELVE possible films to fill in those slots:

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Living
RRR
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale
The Woman King
Women Talking

I think each of them has basically equal amounts of pros and cons and a combination of any three of them in the Best Picture lineup would not surprise me in the slightest. I think in most years, we know most of the contenders and we have two, maybe three, who are contending for the last couple spots but to have this many possibilities with make sense an almost equal amount makes this a unique year so to speak. Which three will fill out the last spots?