Critics Choice Award Nominations

[Reza]

The Winners:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/6th_Hol ... ilm_Awards

[Mister Tee]

We also see the arrival of another possible sole nominee contender in Brian Tyree Henry following the Golden Globe's choice of Eddie Redmayne. It seems to me that this candidate never ends up making it through, whether it's Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar, Jared Leto for The Little Things, or Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. These are always films that are strongly outside the conversation and have picked up zero critical acclaim or attention, so I wouldn't count Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I guess Christopher Plummer might count in All the Money in the World although I'd say there were extenuating points of interest surrounding that performance and film (*cough*) but it's worth noting that he elbowed in past two other dual contenders, Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlberg.

In any event, I'll bet against Eddie Redmayne and Brian Tyree Henry for now, although Henry's film does have Apple behind it and he's reportedly quite good in it.

I've been meaning to put together a post on this subject. I don't have time for the full survey, but a general rule of thumb I've developed for supporting nominees in this era (particularly since the arrival of the ten-wide best picture slate): The most likely nominees are 1) those in best picture nominees; 2) those attached to a lead acting nominee; 3) a previous nominee/winner.

This would explain why someone like Hong Chau could score every precursor nod in 2017 but miss out at the Oscars...or why JLo's seemingly promising campaign crashed.

This, by the way, is a radical departure from decades ago, when there were one-offs like (random sample) Terence Stamp in Billy Budd, Ian Bannen in Flight of the Phoenix, Rupert Cross in The Reivers, Vincent Gardenia in Bang the Drum Slowly, Brenda Vaccaro in Once is Not Enough...and, more recently, Barabra Hershey in Portrait of a Lady, Patricia Clarkson in Pieces of April, Amy Adams in Junebug, Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone. Such singletons have become extremely rare (though there were two in the extreme-COVID year, Bakalova & Leslie Odom).

Using this metric, Tyree Henry is probably a pipe dream. Dolly DeLeon and the Women Talking ladies are likely dependent on their film's best picture luck. And Eddie Redmayne, though in a weaker film, has the advantage of his multiple-nominee/winner profile, something, say, Christoper Plummer had, in addition to his hot narrative in 2017.

[flipp525]

There are so few lone nominees for Best Supporting Actor this year (as Tee mentioned, this category went over thirty years before nominating gentlemen from the same film in this category for Billboards and now we’re discussing the possibility that two pairs from the same film could make it in) that I think Redmayne begs a closer look. He’s a Best Actor winner with a honeymoon nomination after his win and he acts opposite last year’s Best Actress winner. He also plays a rather scary villain in an accessible film.

Also, thanks for the Dolly de Leon shout-out in the Hlobes thread. I see her as an easy BAFTA nod (that group is going to go for Triangle of Sadness overall is my guess. I think she is still in play even though she missed out with these whores.

[Sabin]

I see nobody commented on this thread yesterday, which is probably the appropriate response. If the HFPA doesn't mean anything, these people mean even less. They're just tastemakers. But after perusing the last five years of their awards, they're tastemakers with a reasonably strong prediction rate (easy to do with so many nominations). Most categories of Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress feature 4 or 5 of the eventual nominees. So, take that for what it's worth.

Takeaways:

I'm wondering if we should take RRR more seriously as a Best Picture contender. Every year there's an international choice for Best Director. If the Best Picture roster is pushed to ten and the film has real fans, that kind of passion could elevate it beyond something that's more admired like Glass Onion or The Woman King.

I'm trying to think of the last time there were so many double nominees in the same category that were in the conversation. The first option of the season (Women Talking) seems to be faring the worst but the category of Best Supporting Actress still hasn't remotely taken shape yet. We're at the point where an MCU performance can't be counted out. Similarly, the talk of double nominees for Everything Everywhere All At Once probably needs to be taken more seriously now. This is the one film that thus far has been showing up everywhere. If you love the film then why not? Best Supporting Actor sees both Gleeson and Keoghan showing up for the second time. I'm not sure if they'll both be nominated by SAG but BAFTA seems like a good bet. And this is the first time of the season we see both Dano and Hirsch show up. I have overall concerns about the film's future this awards season but Dano is and has been due for his first nomination for some time and I'm reasonably sure Judd Hirsch is the one thing everybody who sees this film loves.

We also see the arrival of another possible sole nominee contender in Brian Tyree Henry following the Golden Globe's choice of Eddie Redmayne. It seems to me that this candidate never ends up making it through, whether it's Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar, Jared Leto for The Little Things, or Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy. These are always films that are strongly outside the conversation and have picked up zero critical acclaim or attention, so I wouldn't count Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I guess Christopher Plummer might count in All the Money in the World although I'd say there were extenuating points of interest surrounding that performance and film (*cough*) but it's worth noting that he elbowed in past two other dual contenders, Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlberg.

In any event, I'll bet against Eddie Redmayne and Brian Tyree Henry for now, although Henry's film does have Apple behind it and he's reportedly quite good in it.

[anonymous1980]

BEST PICTURE
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
RRR
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler – Elvis
Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living


BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Janelle Monáe – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Frankie Corio – Aftersun
Jalyn Hall – Till
Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans
Bella Ramsey – Catherine Called Birdy
Banks Repeta – Armageddon Time
Sadie Sink – The Whale

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Woman King
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Damien Chazelle – Babylon
Todd Field – Tár
Baz Luhrmann – Elvis
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King
S. S. Rajamouli – RRR
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Todd Field – Tár
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – The Fabelmans
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Samuel D. Hunter – The Whale
Kazuo Ishiguro – Living
Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Rebecca Lenkiewicz – She Said
Sarah Polley – Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Russell Carpenter – Avatar: The Way of Water
Roger Deakins – Empire of Light
Florian Hoffmeister – Tár
Janusz Kaminski – The Fabelmans
Claudio Miranda – Top Gun: Maverick
Linus Sandgren – Babylon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hannah Beachler, Lisa K. Sessions – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Rick Carter, Karen O’Hara – The Fabelmans
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole – Avatar: The Way of Water
Jason Kisvarday, Kelsi Ephraim – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn – Elvis
Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino – Babylon


BEST EDITING
Tom Cross – Babylon
Eddie Hamilton – Top Gun: Maverick
Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua, James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond – Elvis
Monika Willi – Tár

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jenny Eagan – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Shirley Kurata – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Catherine Martin – Elvis
Gersha Phillips – The Woman King
Mary Zophres – Babylon

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
RRR
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST COMEDY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bros
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Close
Decision to Leave
RRR

BEST SONG
Carolina – Where the Crawdads Sing
Ciao Papa – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Hold My Hand – Top Gun: Maverick
Lift Me Up – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Naatu Naatu – RRR
New Body Rhumba – White Noise

BEST SCORE
Alexandre Desplat – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Michael Giacchino – The Batman
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Tár
Hildur Guðnadóttir – Women Talking
Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
John Williams – The Fabelmans