The Post-Festival Landscape

[Okri]

Okri wrote
I went to TIFF in 2016 and gorged on movies; then came back to my city and went to the local festival to catch stuff I couldn't see at TIFF. It was kind of exciting to see four TIFF featured films (Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) do well at Oscar season and all are in my top ten.

I feel the same way. The 2016 Oscar lineup was the first time in memory where I could work up to using the word "love" to four top contenders in the Best Picture lineup. It was one of the reasons why I felt a bit let down by the vitriol of the La La Land-Moonlight fights. We should be so lucky to have films of this calibre every year.

Yeah, that was disheartening.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I went to TIFF in 2016 and gorged on movies; then came back to my city and went to the local festival to catch stuff I couldn't see at TIFF. It was kind of exciting to see four TIFF featured films (Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) do well at Oscar season and all are in my top ten.

I feel the same way. The 2016 Oscar lineup was the first time in memory where I could work up to using the word "love" to four top contenders in the Best Picture lineup. It was one of the reasons why I felt a bit let down by the vitriol of the La La Land-Moonlight fights. We should be so lucky to have films of this calibre every year.

[Okri]

It obviously comes down to individual taste, but I find it a lot more exciting when there are films closer to the Oscar sweet spot about which I'm excited......We seem very far from that sort of slate right now, and, after three consecutive years of it -- pandemic notwithstanding -- I'm getting a bit concerned we've turned some sort of permanent corner.

It's hard for me to tell, to be honest. Your recollection of 2018 matched what I thought you would say (why I chose it and not 2017/2019... which, yes, I'm cheating).

I went to TIFF in 2016 and gorged on movies; then came back to my city and went to the local festival to catch stuff I couldn't see at TIFF. It was kind of exciting to see four TIFF featured films (Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight) do well at Oscar season and all are in my top ten. But I wasn't that enthusiastic about 2017/18/19.... which, to be honest, seems to be just as much a function of me not seeing very many films in theatres and being in perpetual catch up as well as being further from the critical center in 2017 and 18. I'm also trying to think of a year where I was really far from the Oscar sweet spot but also I really liked the year - maybe 2011? Wasn't that keen on the majority of the categories, but my favourites from that year really work

Now, I cheat and put 2020 and 2021 as one film season and I've only seen 31 films from 2022. I'm pleased enough with 2022, though I'm also hoping that I really do enjoy the fascinating messes. My relative confusion about the Oscar races is something else I enjoy.

[Mister Tee]

What did you think of 2018?

I found it a pretty uninspiring year for English-language films (read: Oscar films). Even those I liked best (BlackkKlansman, The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Can You Ever Forgive Me?) felt sort of second-tier, and many prominent best picture nominees (Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and the mediocrity that won in the end) considerably less than that; I also wasn't much fond of the big indie titles that year (First Reformed, The Rider, Leave No Trace -- the last the only one of the three I even halfway liked). The only thing that camouflaged all this was, it was a stellar year for other-language efforts, with Shoplifters, Roma, Cold War and Burning all ranking among my year's favorites.

It obviously comes down to individual taste, but I find it a lot more exciting when there are films closer to the Oscar sweet spot about which I'm excited. In the year prior, 2017, you had Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Phantom Thread, Get Out -- a panoply of widely-seen and -praised films, nearly any of which would have made a plausible best picture. In 2019, there was The Irishman, Little Women, Parasite, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, all perfectly acceptable best picture choices (and I could see people's enthusiasms for 1917 and Joker, though I wasn't in sync with them). We seem very far from that sort of slate right now, and, after three consecutive years of it -- pandemic notwithstanding -- I'm getting a bit concerned we've turned some sort of permanent corner.

[Big Magilla]

I haven't seen anything that hasn't been streamed or released on home video this year so I'm going mostly on instinct here.

The Fabelmans sounds on paper like Spielberg lite - perhaps worthy of an Oscar nomination for Best Picture but a bit of a stretch to see it as a clear front-runner. Yet, with the U.S. elections in the rearview mirror, this has turned out to be a year of hope fulfilled, at least in part, and that's what Spielberg's life has been. It fits with the narrative like nothing else this year, so much so that even those who are completely turned off by the year-long hype can feel comfortable voting for it. At this point, it looks like an easy winner.

I don't know about Scorsese holding off Killers of the Flower Moon to keep out of Spielberg's way. Scorsese is notorious for taking his time with post-production, the holdups on Gangs of New York and Shutter Island, two earlier films with Leonardo DiCaprio, are testament to that.

There should be enough genuine suspense in the acting categories, though, to keep us Oscar watchers happy.

Brendan Fraser, with his back story, is clearly the front-runner for Best Actor, but there is genuine affection for overdue Colin Farrell as well. Cate Blanchett should have two Oscars by now, and she does, albeit for the wrong films in my estimation. I think she should have won for Notes on a Scandal and Carol. I'm not sold on her easily winning a third for TÁR but since I've been wrong about her past wins, I could be wildly off again this year. Michelle Yeoh and Danielle Deadwyler seem more likely at the moment.

The supporting categories are up for grabs. There are no clear favorites in either of the two categories.

[Okri]

What did you think of 2018?

[Mister Tee]

Yeah, early-year reports seem to have been excessively enthusiastic about Babylon -- the reactions now seem more of the Bardo/White Noise (fascinating mess) variety, rather than anything that can likely win a best picture trophy.

It's starting to feel like The Fabelmans is following The Return of the King's trajectory: bloggers decided early on it was to be crowned, and the cinema year cooperated by producing virtually nothing with which it had to compete.

I have no right to a pronouncement till I've seen Spielberg's movie, along with Till/She Said/Babylon/Decision to Leave/Women Talking, but I can't remember being as prematurely disenchanted with an Oscar round. Do I say that every year? This time feels especially deflating, because, after the two half-hearted COVID vintages, I thought we'd be back to a full slate this year...but, thanks to a number of films going splat and others being delayed, it's the opposite. (Has anyone heard the rumor that Scorsese held back on his entry because he knows Spielberg REALLY wants it this year? Marty can, of course, empathize with wanting it bad.) 2019 was only 3 years ago, but its impressively varied slate seems a lifetime ago. And the idea of people returning to theatres for such films remains theoretical, as well.

Obviously I admired much of TAR and Banshees, and would be happy to see acting Oscars go to (at least) its leads. But the best picture field is hopelessly thin, and bumping it to 10 is going to cause a lot of groan-worthy choices.

[Sabin]

First Babylon reactions are kind of all over the place. Sounds like a great time but maybe not a Best Picture winner.

So, The Fabelmans then?

[flipp525]

flipp525 wrote
I would say that Diego Calva and Margot Robbie are definitely co-leads. I saw some ridiculous idea on one of those other Oscar sites that they should move Robbie into supporting which is ridiculous. The character on paper is a lead. And she goes through it.

The Anna May Wong-inspired character has some of the most memorable scenes. Jean Smart might not have enough material for a nomination but she’s having quite a career resurgence so could definitely still get in. But I think people might be sleeping on Li Jun Li.

I also think there may be a spot for Tobey Maguire.

Did you like the script?

I quite loved it. It’s not going to be for everyone but it’s pretty wild.

[OscarGuy]

Hopefully, there's sentiment that she was robbed by Frances McDormand...that has propelled people to the winner's circle in the past.

[Sabin]

According to Matt Neglia, Carey Mulligan could be a supporting contender for She Said and possible winner. I could see something like that happening for her.

[Mister Tee]

Both Flipp and Sabin mentioned Deadwyler.

Not only that, but I posted here just last week that I spoke to a good friend who had just seen Till and he stated unequivocally that “Deadwyler will win.” So, yeah, other people here have already been talking about her.

I was basing my comment on the posted predictions in the Predictions thread; hadn't seen that you'd mentioned this elsewhere. Certainly didn't intend to slight your info.

[Mister Tee]

Heh. I think Gandhi is a disappointing choice, but in context of 1982. Whereas I think Out of Africa is the right choice, but in the disappointing context of 1985. I think Reds is fine, but I do think that it's reputation was saved by losing best picture (and conversely, I love Chariots of Fire, but think it's reputation was hurt by winning all the same).

I can endorse this almost fully, except I think Gandhi is a worse movie than simply being inferior to Tootsie and ET (and even Missing). I find it an absolutely lifeless, stodgy pageant -- totally impersonal filmmaking, without anything of interest beyond the subject matter,

Reds has definite flaws -- the post-intermission part is largely a lesser thing -- but it has some vital scenes, and the use of the Witnesses is more interesting than anything in Gandhi.

[Sabin]

flipp525 wrote
I would say that Diego Calva and Margot Robbie are definitely co-leads. I saw some ridiculous idea on one of those other Oscar sites that they should move Robbie into supporting which is ridiculous. The character on paper is a lead. And she goes through it.

The Anna May Wong-inspired character has some of the most memorable scenes. Jean Smart might not have enough material for a nomination but she’s having quite a career resurgence so could definitely still get in. But I think people might be sleeping on Li Jun Li.

I also think there may be a spot for Tobey Maguire.

Did you like the script?

[flipp525]

flipp525 wrote
Read the script for Babylon - I really do think that Margot Robbie is in.

Very cool. Any other takeaways from the script?

I would say that Diego Calva and Margot Robbie are definitely co-leads. I saw some ridiculous idea on one of those other Oscar sites that they should move Robbie into supporting which is ridiculous. The character on paper is a lead. And she goes through it.

The Anna May Wong-inspired character has some of the most memorable scenes. Jean Smart might not have enough material for a nomination but she’s having quite a career resurgence so could definitely still get in. But I think people might be sleeping on Li Jun Li.

I also think there may be a spot for Tobey Maguire.