First Oscar Predictions Post Fall Festival

[flipp525]

It’s All Quiet ON the Western Front.

[anonymous1980]

anonymous1980 wrote
All Quiet in the Western Front (Netflix) Edward Berger, Daniel Marc Dreifuss and Malte Grunert, producers.

Has anyone seen this? I’ve seen no speculation about it.

Yes.

I’ve also heard it described as Saving Private Ryan
meets Come and See.

[Sabin]

anonymous1980 wrote
All Quiet in the Western Front (Netflix) Edward Berger, Daniel Marc Dreifuss and Malte Grunert, producers.

Has anyone seen this? I’ve seen no speculation about it.

[anonymous1980]

My post-fall festival/pre-precursor predictions!

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

All Quiet in the Western Front (Netflix) Edward Berger, Daniel Marc Dreifuss and Malte Grunert, producers.

Babylon (Paramount) Marc Platt, Matthew Plouffe and Olivia Hamilton, producers.

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) Peter Czernin, Graham Broadbent and Martin McDonagh, producers.

Everything, Everywhere All At Once (A24) Jonathan Wang, producer.

The Fabelmans (Universal/Amblin) Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner and Kristie Macosko-Krieger, producers.

Tár (Focus Features) Todd Field and Scott Lambert, producers.

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount/Skydance) Tom Cruise, Jerry Bruckheimer, David Ellison and Christopher McQuarrie, producers.

Triangle of Sadness (Neon/BBC Films/Canal+) Philippe Bober and Erik Hemmendorf, producers.

The Whale (A24) Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel and Jeremy Dawson, producers.

Women Talking (Plan B) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Edward Berger, All Quiet in the Western Front
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, Elvis
Diego Calva, Babylon
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere All At Once

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Bruhl, All Quiet in the Western Front
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin
written by Martin McDonagh

Everything, Everywhere All At Once
written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans
written by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg

Tár
written by Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness
written by Ruben Ostlund

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet in the Western Front
screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
screenplay by Rian Johnson.
based on his previous film

Top Gun: Maverick
screen story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks & screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie
based on the characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.

The Whale
screenplay by Samuel D. Hunter
based on his play.

Women Talking
screenplay by Sarah Polley
based on the novel by Miriam Toews.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)
Strange Worlds (Disney)
Turning Red (PIXAR/Disney)
Wendell and Wild (Netflix)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
James Friend, All Quiet in the Western Front
Linus Sandgren, Babylon
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Svenn Budelmann, All Quiet in the Western Front
Tom Cross, Babylon
Paul Rogers, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans
Eddie Hamiton, Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

Avatar: The Way of Water
Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (production design) & Vanessa Cole (set decoration)

Babylon
Florencia Martin (production design) & Anthony Carlino (set decoration)

The Batman
James Chindlund (production design) & Lee Sandales (set decoration)

Elvis
Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy (production design) & Beverly Dunn, Shaun Barry and Daniel Reader (set decoration)

The Fabelmans
Rick Carter (production design) & Karen O'Hara (set decoration)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres, Babylon
Ruth Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans
Gersha Philipps, The Woman King

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
Michael Giacchino, The Batman
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick; music & lyrics by Lady Gaga and Michael Tucker
"Keep Rising", The Woman King; music & lyrics by Jessy Wilson, Angelique Kidjo and Jeremy Lutito
"Naatu, Naatu", RRR; music by M. M. Keeravani & lyrics by Chandrabose
"Nobody Like U", Turning Red; music & lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell.
"An Original Song", Pinocchio; music & lyrics by Alexandre Desplat

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
All Quiet in the Western Front
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN A MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet in the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
The Woman King

[anonymous1980]

b) We see, in ensembles that are heavily weighted to the guys, the sole actress can break through with a nomination and/or win, almost as a "representative" for the whole crew. I'm think Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Kim Basinger for LA Confidential. I can't easily think of examples for the reverse, though.

George Sanders in All About Eve.

[Big Magilla]

e) Would Judd Hirsch (1980, 2022) have the biggest gap between consecutive acting (or any) nominations? Henry Fonda (1940, 1981) is the longest right now, right?

Yes, and his On Golden Pond co-winner Katharine Hepburn holds the record for the most years between first and last nominations (1933-1981).

[Okri]

a) I'm going to spell "Fabelmans" incorrectly all oscar season and not feel sorry about it, I suspect.

b) We see, in ensembles that are heavily weighted to the guys, the sole actress can break through with a nomination and/or win, almost as a "representative" for the whole crew. I'm think Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Kim Basinger for LA Confidential. I can't easily think of examples for the reverse, though.

c) I'm really curious about Everything Everywhere All At Once. The nature of the internet enthusiasm soured me a little on the film, admittedly. But I also think it's a film that the internet might be way happier with than the Oscars - like only Yeoh gets in on career points and enthusiasm.

d) Top Gun getting a screenplay nomination would be the origin story of Mister Tee going straight villain, right?

e) Would Judd Hirsch (1980, 2022) have the biggest gap between consecutive acting (or any) nominations? Henry Fond (1940, 1981) is the longest right now, right?

f) I'm seeing Triangle of Sadness this weekend. Very curious, but I don't love Ostlund.

[Sabin]

I'll put myself on record before October. We still don't know about Avatar, Babylon, Black Panther, and She Said.

(09.30.22: largely reverting back to my old predictions)


BEST PICTURE
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
No idea. I guess Bill Nighy, Living?

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Daniel Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Brad PItt, Babylon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Conlon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Jean Smart, Babylon

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
She Said
The Son
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Babylon
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Women Talking

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The song from Top Gun: Maverick
I don't know... a few others...

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Babylon
Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST FILM EDITING
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Whale
The Woman King

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick