Sabin wrote:*re: Trump's re-election chances, honestly, I don't know and I don't think anyone who says definitively whether or not Trump should win or not should be listened to either. I thought the Democratic Party was headed towards a historic wipeout this fall. It looks like that won't happen. I was also wrong about how much Roe v. Wade would galvanize voters. I was far too embedded in political hopelessness. But there are countless ways that Trump could get re-elected.
"Why Trump's presence in the mid-terms is risky for the GOP."Big Magilla wrote:Trump himself will eventually fade from everyday view but Trumpism will last at least through 2024. When he or one of his clones loses the 2024 election, concern will not go way until after the certification process has been completed. Depending on how badly that goes, the stench could last through the 2026 midterms and maybe even until the 2028 election.
I think 2030 will be the earliest year in which Trumpism will not be a major factor and it won't be a source for discussion on daily newscasts.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... r-the-gop/
Articles like this one can only be a positive sign.
I think we need to remember that Trump was viewed with wariness within the GOP before winning the 2016 election. Even if he had support, he wasn't necessarily seen as the party leader. That all changed once he defeated Clinton. In the natural course of events, after losing 2020 the GOP would toss him aside like every other losing candidate. But Clever Boy Donald declared the election fraudulent, and by doing so he remained the leader of his party, and the other Republicans - lacking, like typical sheep, any critical thinking skills - continued to fall in line. The result being: we're stuck with him for a while. But there's a problem with continuously keeping yourself the center of focus when you lose your power, and that is, when you get beaten up and suffer humiliation, you don't have the protections the office once provided you, and everyone can see all the injuries you're sustaining. And Trump has done nothing these past two years other than suffer humiliations.
So yes, the 2022 elections will be a referendum on Trump, which may not be fair to Biden who had some real accomplishments these past two years (although how often do accomplishments actually motivate voters?), but we should welcome it. Trump's "aura" is infecting the rest of the party. From promulgating the "Big Lie", to the investigations and prosecutions, to keeping the memory of Jan. 6th fresh in everyone's minds (I mean, Trump just announced he'd pardon the fanatics who stormed the Capitol. Wow, that should provide instant relief to as many as 200 voters!)... all of this has been a two year long self-own. 85 million people voted against him in 2020. How many of those do you think Trump has charmed and won over during the past two years? Instead, he's made himself even more hated and repulsive. And, because the GOP decided they would be complicit to everything Trump does, they are powerless to disengage now that the shit's hitting the fan.
Add to that Roe v. Wade, the "trigger" laws and other demonstrations of who the Republicans really are. The Democrats are doing a decent job highlighting the stark differences between the parties, but there's always room for improvement. They have a couple of months left to really drive it home. I'm not 100 percent confident that what we're seeing now isn't a summer "bump", but that may be my pessimism driving my judgments. But if they perform as strongly as they look right now, then Trump is done.
I think he's done anyway. Whenever I see him, I think "Dead Man Walking". No, he's not getting convicted (although he could make a plea deal). He may or may not get indicted. But even if he doesn't, this has drawn blood. He doesn't have the bearing of a martyr (Ollie North could teach him a thing or two), so claims of martyrdom will be of limited use value. And the number of true thick-thru-thin fanatics are diminishing. Remember, Trump's brand was being a "winner". If the midterms leave Democrats more powerful than before, then Trump's reputation for strength and victory goes into the garbage. And articles like the one I posted above means he's on the way out already.
As for president, I'm sure he'll run. It's a lucrative gig, so why not? But he's no longer the same Donald Trump. In 2016, he was an outsider and a "winner". Today, he's neither. I doubt he gets past Iowa and New Hampshire, and he may not even get that far.
And as for when the insanity ends, these things sometimes take a while. I stopped watching news entirely because I couldn't take all the stories about Sarah Palin's goddam family, long after the 2012 election was settled.
