My first Oscar predictions of the year (pre-fall festival)

[Big Magilla]

Fox Searchlight has appealed the Academy's rule change against films released to streaming without theatrical release that were scheduled prior to the rule change, specifically Good Luck to You, Leo Grande which would put Emma Thompson back in contention for Best Actress.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/news/e ... r-AA10zKkP

[Big Magilla]

Here's Jeff Wells' take on it:

1. A flamboyant, epic-scaled, 185-minute version of Singin’ in the Rain, but a lot longer with the songs and dancing and smiles taken out. Call it a depravity-tinged survival story about Hollywood transitioning from the silent era to sound, although ultimately spanning three decades (mid 1920s through 1952).

2. Vincente Minnelli meets Fellini Satyricon in jazz-age Hollywood.

3. An epic-sized smorgasbord in which the excesses of The Wolf of Wall Street serve the story of Singin’ in the Rain.

4. The two leads are Margot Robbie’s Clara Bow-like actress and Diego Calva’s “Manny Torres”. The latter is the main protagonist or audience identity figure — the observer-survivor. Robbie’s performance is said to be the big takeaway and a likely Best Actress opportunity. Brad Pitt is playing what amounts to a tragic supporting player role, Clark Gable-resembling but partly inspired by John Gilbert.

[Sabin]

I was going to post about Damian Chazelle’s Babylon as a Best Picture contender. I certainly think it should be viewed as a potential heavy at this point sight unseen considering how close he’s gotten before (previous DGA winner) and how impressive his track record has been. But then I started wondering about that three hour running time and how unfashionable that seems to be these days.

Quick question: what’s the longest Best Picture winner of the last ten years? Answer: 12 Years a Slave at 134 mins followed by Parasite with 132 and Green Book at 130. The other winners are all hovering around 120 except for The Artist (100), Nomadland (108), and Moonlight (111). The last film to clear those RT’s was The Departed, which was quite some time ago. The Academy seems to like shorter films.

[Big Magilla]

Yes, everything is up in the air as far as actually happening, but prediction wise this seems to be a more conventional year than we have had in a while.

Once again, the early prognosis was that a Scorsese film would be the one to beat and once again, the Scorsese was delayed.

I was skeptical about the Spielberg, but The Fabelmans has supposedly been well received by those who have seen it although official reviews are yet to come.

Everything Everywhere All at Once could make into a ten-film slot, but only if it isn't set aside by the emergence of similar, possibly more popular action-adventure films yet to be seen. I do think, however, that Michelle Yeoh is too strong an early favorite not to make all the way through the year.

The toughest category to predict a winner in, at this point, seems to me to be Best Actor between Brendan Fraser, Hugh Jackman, and Bill Nighy, especially if all three of them win major precursors.

[Mister Tee]

Supporting Actor is still up in the air for me.

Umm...isn't everything up in the air at this point, seeing virtually nothing on this list has been seen or reviewed? I'm reminded of an anonymous quote from a fan watching the NY Giants from way in the upper deck: "The game is strictly a rumor, from here"

Is there any reason, besides money, to think Maverick would rate a best picture nomination? Elvis is a slightly more defensible choice, but that, too, is largely "made money and isn't so bad". Everything Everywhere All at Once is the only film so far this year to truly merit attention based on critical and audience reception. I could see nothing currently in release making the big board in January.

After that, it's just Which film you haven't seen do you most fantasize might be good? The Oscar universe seems to have been really pre-sold on The Fabelmans as being something special. I'll repeat what I said in this year's Who'll Be Back?: Tony Kushner is an obvious asset, but can you name me a good Spielberg movie that wasn't either adventure/fantasy or historical? Domestic drama seems the furthest from his skill set, and I have deep doubts about it. I'll acknowledge, though, the narrative is powerful, and can be hard to dislodge: Gary Oldman won his Oscar for basically no other reason than bloggers had decided a year out this was his big one.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Nominations-wise, I wouldn’t bet against a David O. Russell film. He’s got an outstanding track of leading his actors to nominations at the very least so maybe Amsterdam should be taken into consideration, even at this early stage.

[Big Magilla]

Interesting. After CODA and Will Smith last year, I am ready for anything, but I have a feeling that things are shifting back into place. The Globes will be back on TV, Netflix and other streaming services will be spending less on promoting their films, with theatrical releases once again dominating the awards.

There are several adventure films that could displace both Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All at Once from Best Picture contention, while serious dramas like Living, the London in the 1950s remake of Ikiru, and She Said, the Spotlight style investigation of Harvey Weinstei, both seem like strong critics' awards contenders. I can see Bill Nighy in the former replacing any of your contenders but Brendan Fraser and Hugh Jackman in Best Actor. Both Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan could replace Olivia Colman and Ana De Armas in Best Actress.

Supporting Actor is still up in the air for me, but Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) both seem strong contenders for their second nominations over DeLeon and Robbie.

[anonymous1980]

Let's see how many I get right!

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
Elvis
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
The Son
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, Elvis
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Ana De Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Zen McGrath, The Son
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Frances McDormand, Women Talking
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Florian Zeller, The Son
Ehren Krueger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie (screenplay) & Peter Craig and Justin Marks (story), Top Gun: Maverick
Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio
The Sea Beast
Strange Worlds
Turning Red
Wendell and Wild