The 23rd Annual Who'll Be Back?

[Big Magilla]

Millicent Simmonds is a wonderful actress. I hope her career endures. The other two I'm not familiar with. I don't remember a deaf hitman in the first TV version of Fargo, gave up on the third one before I got very far into it.

[anonymous1980]

I think the last deaf actor to get a modicum of fame was Ty Giordano who played Diane Keaton's son in The Family Stone. He's still active as a producer but his last acting credit was 11 years ago. Only Marlee Matlin has had the kind of sustained career that hearing actors with an Oscar nomination, let alone a win, are generally accorded.

There are three other deaf actors who found some success in recent years: Millicent Simmonds who starred in Wonderstruck and both A Quiet Place movies, Lauren Ridloff who was in Sound of Metal and most recently played a superhero in Eternals as well as being in The Walking Dead, and Russell Harvard who played the grown-up version of Daniel Day-Lewis's son in There Will Be Blood and played the deaf hitman in the first and third seasons of the TV series version of Fargo.

[Big Magilla]

I read that but completely missed it.

BlackKklansman was definitely a theatrical release. No one took Netflix seriously as a major Oscar contender until Roma which had it been a theatrical release might actually have won. I think there's still an anti-Netflix vibe at play though anti-streaming in general seems to have died down considerably.

I should probably try and watch CODA again at some point. I still don't think it's an awards caliber film, but I am genuinely happy for Troy Kotsur and his fellow deaf actors getting the kind of recognition that usually eludes them. I think the last deaf actor to get a modicum of fame was Ty Giordano who played Diane Keaton's son in The Family Stone. He's still active as a producer but his last acting credit was 11 years ago. Only Marlee Matlin has had the kind of sustained career that hearing actors with an Oscar nomination, let alone a win, are generally accorded.

[Okri]

....and 3 of the last 4 screenplay awards (you mention Blackkklansman as Netflix, but IMDB says it's Focus).

So does Focus Features' website. I must have gotten doubled the other Spike Lee joint.

[Okri]

I'm not sure that's a fair assessment. It's an easy dart to throw with The 355 sitting out there in recent memory. But, while Chastain has had a few dumb clunkers (I see she did an X-Men movie, which I swear I don't even remember being released), many of her more commercial efforts have come from top-flight directors (Nolan, Del Toro, Scott). And, in addition to her awards-aspiring efforts like A Most Violent Year, Miss Sloane and Molly's Game, she also did Miss Julie, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, and the TV Scenes from a Marriage. I don't think that's a bad record, over nearly a decade.

And Blanchett's resume is hardly pristine. I guess you can give her Crystal Skull, because Spielberg, but...ugh. And she's got Thor: Ragnarok, Oceans 8, Cinderella, and a couple of How to Train Your Dragons, in there among her more ambitious credits. Granted, Blanchett's roster covers a longer period of time, but I think the two are a decent comparison.

True - though I should've been more specific and say that I meant in between that first Oscar nomination and the win. Chastain's breakthrough year and follow-up were so remarkable that it's actually interesting just how little she did seemed to stick the decade following.

[Greg]

Someone I think is likely to be nominated soon, who has not been mentioned, is Simon Rex.

[Mister Tee]

Remember that run Focus Features (nee USA Films) had around the turn of the century? Six straight screenplay winners (Traffic/Gosford Park/The Pianist/Lost in Translation/Eternal Sunshine/Brokeback Mountain), three director winners and they spent an entire season as the frontrunner for best picture their Western in 2005, only to be pipped at the gate by a film beginning with “C” that won only three Oscars. They weren’t the same after. Sure, we still got the nominated films and sometimes they even won things, but they didn’t feel like the go-to division anymore.

To be honest, I'd kind of stopped tracking Focus after the Brokeback debacle (in fact, studios in general -- I could tell you which studio won best picture every year through the mid-aughts, but so many smaller studios have got in play that I can barely remember). It's worth noting that this year, as well, they had what seemed a shot at best picture, and blew that (pundits understood Power of the Dog was a prime prone-to-upset candidate, but putting Belfast out there so early subjected it to such criticism it couldn't take advantage; the later-breaking schmaltz effort did the deed, instead). But Focus has, as you say, continued to get nominations and Oscars -- several best actor trophies (all among my least favorites), and 3 of the last 4 screenplay awards (you mention Blackkklansman as Netflix, but IMDB says it's Focus).

Netflix ... with film, it has basically been the same – stumbling before the show (BlackKKlansman, Roma, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7) or even the nominations (Ma Rainey, Da 5 Bloods). And now, pipped at the final step by Apple.

My friend who's an Academy voter has always expressed dislike of the Netflix awards team -- he thinks they push to a Weinsteinian degree, enough to breed resentment -- so that may play some part. But I think their real issue has just been not having the right films in the right years. Roma was pretty far from typical Academy fare -- honestly, I think it's a miracle it held on for best director, given how aesthetically different it is -- and Power of the Dog had detractors for its content, pacing, and comprehension issues. Imagine if The Irishman, instead of competing with a stellar slate in 2019, had been the big Netflix hope this year. It might well have won. (If CODA would have beaten even that, I'd say the Oscars' problems run way deeper than anti-Netflix bias.)

I’m less enthusiastic about Chastain returning, to be honest. I think she makes far more junk cinema than someone like Blanchett did.

I'm not sure that's a fair assessment. It's an easy dart to throw with The 355 sitting out there in recent memory. But, while Chastain has had a few dumb clunkers (I see she did an X-Men movie, which I swear I don't even remember being released), many of her more commercial efforts have come from top-flight directors (Nolan, Del Toro, Scott). And, in addition to her awards-aspiring efforts like A Most Violent Year, Miss Sloane and Molly's Game, she also did Miss Julie, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, and the TV Scenes from a Marriage. I don't think that's a bad record, over nearly a decade.

And Blanchett's resume is hardly pristine. I guess you can give her Crystal Skull, because Spielberg, but...ugh. And she's got Thor: Ragnarok, Oceans 8, Cinderellla, and a couple of How to Train Your Dragons, in there among her more ambitious credits. Granted, Blanchett's roster covers a longer period of time, but I think the two are a decent comparison.

Tee, how about Bruno Delbonnel for cinematography? Six nominations puts him in the top five most nominated cinematographers without a win. He has the bad luck, it seems, of doing his work against undeniably competition (Lubezeki, Deakins, Frazer).

He's been around so long, I feel like I must have highlighted him previously, but I guess not. Definitely a strong prospect -- though his non-Coen nominations aren't among my favorites.

As for the comments of others (and thank you all, for your appreciation):

Harry Goldfarb: You know, I never thought of Ann Dowd, because I just haven't been able to find her damn film. I see it's on hulu now, but I don't think it was back around nomination time, when I had borrowed-access, and it's not even scheduled for Netflix disc release. As it happens, I've just watched her Emmy-winning season of The Handmaid's Tale (yes, very late), and I can't see any reason not to think of her as future hopeful.

taki15: It's all too easy to confuse franchises when you never plan or expect to watch the movies.

[Okri]

As usual, the thread we wait for to say goodbye to a cinematic year.

Swerving a little bit…. Remember that run Focus Features (nee USA Films) had around the turn of the century? Six straight screenplay winners (Traffic/Gosford Park/The Pianist/Lost in Translation/Eternal Sunshine/Brokeback Mountain), three director winners and they spent an entire season as the frontrunner for best picture their Western in 2005, only to be pipped at the gate by a film beginning with “C” that won only three Oscars. They weren’t the same after. Sure, we still got the nominated films and sometimes they even won things, but they didn’t feel like the go-to division anymore.

Netflix obviously challenged the streaming rules. They came up with Emmy nominated dramas and comedies before the other streamers. However, they couldn’t cross the finish line and saw other streamers beat them to the victory (up until The Crown, but consider that Hulu, Apple TV, Amazon Prime and Pop TV – whatever the last is – all won before Netflix). And with film, it has basically been the same – stumbling before the show (BlackKKlansman, Roma, The Irishman, Marriage Story, Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7) or even the nominations (Ma Rainey, Da 5 Bloods). And now, pipped at the final step by Apple.

Now, I have a number of issues with Netflix and suspect that we’ll look back on this era has its halcyon days (think Mirimax pre-Il Postino). It would have been nice to see that get a best picture win.

• Re: Debose - Going from first person kicked off a reality TV show (So You Think You Can Dance) to a Tony nominee and Oscar winner is a career arc. I actually think she’ll be back – she’s got a canny sense of how she wants to manage.
• I’m less enthusiastic about Chastain returning, to be honest. I think she makes far more junk cinema than someone like Blanchett did.
• You mention Stewart fans – I raise you Cumberbatch Conspirators. The internet as mental illness in those ones….
• Faist is also a Tony nominated performer. Glad to see a boost of Arianda – she’s amazing. I’ll echo FilmFan re: Tessa Thompson. And finally, Colman Domingo has been rapidly accumulating credits over the past few years.
• Tee, how about Bruno Delbonnel for cinematography? Six nominations puts him in the top five most nominated cinematographers without a win. He has the bad luck, it seems, of doing his work against undeniably competition (Lubezeki, Deakins, Frazer).
• Of the directors, I wonder what Janicza Bravo will do next. And it’s basically cheating, but I assume that Lin Manuel-Miranda will get a major Oscar nomination in the near future.
• In terms of foreign auteurs, I suspect Celine Sciamma will get a major nomination too. Petite Maman had a one week qualifier (why, why why?)
• Regarding Smith - I didn't think he was coming back before The Incident (TM). I'll stick with that.

[FilmFan720]

Another great thread!

I will nominate Ruth Negga's co-star Tessa Thompson as a likely to be nominated soon. She has balanced her Marvel output with a lot of interesting choices -- Creed, Sorry to Bother You, Passing -- and with Passing seemed to take a big step towards "serious actress" in a lot of people's minds.

On the docket are mostly sequels, but I could see her finding the right project and finally getting to the Dolby sooner rather than later.

[Big Magilla]

Thank you, Tee, and thank you anonymous, for the format (which I'm copying here!)

Here's my quickie assessment:

Bardem - Maybe more in lead but possibly more frequently in supporting roles as he ages.
Cumberbatch - Yes, and soon; he and Garfield will be seen as this year's rightful recipients, and they will want to give both makeup wins sooner than later.
Garfield - Ditto.
Smith - No.
Washington - Yes, but his "the devil made him do it" defense of Smith did him no favors.

Chastain - She'll be nominated again as soon as next year but will likely have to wait for another win.
Colman - She'll be back for a second and maybe a third win within the decade.
Cruz - She could well win a second one within the decade.
Kidman - I don't know. They've overlooked her so many times in recent years that she may be through.
Stewart - Not sure. She's done quirky to death onscreen but has become very personable in real life. If she can successfully translate that charm to her screen characters, then yes.

Hinds - Definitely in the right role.
Kotsur - Probably not, but you never know.
Plemons - Yes, now that they've finally discovered him.
Simmons- I didn't expect him this year, so maybe he has another surprise nomination or two up his sleeve.
Smit-McPhee - Definitely should be. Could be the new Joaquin Phoenix if he plays his cards right.

Buckley - Definitely, probably in lead roles for years to come.
DeBose - Perhaps, but it's her non-nominated co-stars Rachel Zegler and Mike Faist who are getting the high-profile roles post-West Side Story.
Dench - Yes, if and until she retires.
Dunst - She will probably get another nomination and possibly a makeup win soon.
Ellis - Possibly, but the competition for roles in her age bracket, especially among black women is fierce.

Anderson - Yes, and he will probably win at some point, if not for directing, then for writing.
Branagh - Yes, but not for his Agatha Christie adaptations.
Campion - Probably not. She's close to retirement now.
Hamaguchi - Doubtful. I agree it's tough for non-English speaking directors to repeat.
Spielberg - Like Dench, he will continue to be in the running until he drops out of his own volition.

So close, but yet so far - Mike Faist has two films in various stages of production including one in which he co-stars with Zendaya and Josh O'Connor. All three are on the verge of nominations in the near future. Rachel Zegler will either become a big star or flame out with her next couple of projects. Ruth Negga's name will come up again. Jamie Dornan and Caitriona Balfe, if she makes more theatrical films, will both receive makeup nominations as soon as possible.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Normally I divide the actors’ bonus round in two –- someone who contended for nomination this year but fell short, then just any old actor who appeared somewhere this year and seems a hot prospect for eventually making the Oscar list. But this year they’re kind of mashed together in my head. (Remember: we exclude anyone who’s ever been nominated, so snubbees like Ruth Negga are ineligible.)

Great post, Tee.

As for the actors who fell short, I think Ann Dowd should be considered for an eventual appearance. Once again, without being a heavy favourite, her performance in Mass generated enough buzz as to be considered a possibility by many. It is already the second time that she has been on this position: previously it was for Compliance and now for Mass. And we must not leave aside her recent successful career on TV with The Handmaid's Tale (which already earned her an Emmy).

[anonymous1980]

I always looking forward to these every year, Tee!

Here's my quickie personal assessment of whether or not they'll be back:

Bardem - I think he'll get a few more nominations. I don't know if he'll win again.
Cumberbatch - Yes, I think he'll be back and he might win too.
Garfield - Ditto.
Smith - Before the Slap, I would've said possibly but now, I don't think so....at least not in at least a decade.
Washington - I think Oscar #3 is inevitable.

Chastain - I think she'll get nominated again but I don't know if she'll win again.
Colman - Yes, I think she'll be a perennial and may win Oscar #2.
Cruz - Yes and unlike Bardem, I think she'll definitely win a second Oscar likely for a Spanish role.
Kidman - Yes, I think she has a career that merits a second Oscar.
Stewart - Now that she has broken through, I think she'll be back and eventually win.

Hinds - My crystal ball says doubtful but not impossible.
Kotsur - He's a lovely guy but this screams one and done. I'd love it if I'm proven wrong.
Plemons - He could be back next year!
Simmons- He works constantly so it's probable.
Smit-McPhee - He's young and obviously talented. I think how soon is the question.

Buckley - Yes, I think she'll be back.
DeBose - See Kotsur.
Dench - She's 87 and nearly blind but still constantly working. Not impossible to have one or two more left in her.
Dunst - Now that she's finally gotten her first one, I can see this being her only career nom or she becomes perennial.
Ellis - She can go either way I think.

Anderson - Yes, I think he will win with the right project down the line.
Branagh - For Director? No. For acting? Yes.
Campion - She works infrequently but now that she's won, I think her next project will generate buzz. We'll see.
Hamaguchi - Doubtful. Non-English language directors don't seem to become perennials like Bergman and Fellini anymore unless they crossover to English (see: Lee, Hallstrom, the Three Amigos).
Spielberg - He could get nominated next year!

[taki15]

Mister Tee's Who'll Be Back posts is the one part of Oscar season that's still going strong.

BTW, Branagh directed a Jack Ryan movie, not Jack Reacher.

[Reza]

Onward to a new, hopefully more exciting (and movie-house-centered) season. Already I can’t wait to see this Michelle Yeoh thing! Happy new movie year to all.

As usual a great summary and a look-in to the future, which for me took on great intrigue at your mention of Yeoh. I had to look her up to see which movie you were referencing. Yes, the film sounds like great fun, and wouldn't it be delightful if she was up for Best Actress next year.

[Mister Tee]

The way the Oscars turned out, nobody’s going to remember much beyond The Slap. But I’ll note it was a pretty good year for the premise of this Who’ll Be Back series -– both lead acting winners took home trophies their third time at bat (though, going into the year, one seemed more overdue than the other), and the directing winner won on her second try. Ferreting out these lose-today/win-tomorrow folk is why we put in time pondering these matters.

And maybe, this year, the thread can also provide a refreshing rinse -- wash away the memory of a season that went so sour Sunday evening. It wasn’t just the Smith crack-up that left a bad taste; it was also the screw-the-techies format, and some generally dispiriting results. Because this year had a bit more star power than last, I don’t think it quickly registered, but…this, too, was a pandemic-limited year. The final outcome –- what’s widely seen as a Hallmark movie taking best picture -– was largely derived from a lackluster primary field: an arty Western, an equally banal Irish film, a remake no one particularly needed, and a lightweight effort from one of our best filmmakers. Much as I lament the result, I find it hard to harshly fault Academy voters, given the unappetizing platter from which they had to choose.

Happily, 2022 looks considerably more promising (films of course sight unseen), with major efforts on tap from some of our most distinctive filmmakers: Chazelle (whose film is already yielding hot buzz), Scorsese, Fincher, Wes Anderson, Guadagnino, Spielberg back again -- and such unpredictable but sometimes exceptional folks as Baumbach, Luhrmann, Polley, Innaritu, Russell, Lanthimos, McDonagh. (Apologies for the mostly male-ness of this list; if anyone can point me to more promising female-directed films, I’ll be happy to include them.) No telling, of course, how many of these films will impress, but it’ll be good to have so much of the varsity back on the field once again.

To the immediate task at hand: Who, among this year’s nominees (and, further on, near-nominees) seems likeliest to return, for another shot and, perhaps, a more fulfilling outcome? I give you the 23rd annual Who’ll Be Back?

Except for that stretch post-Globes, Nicole Kidman wasn’t seen as much threat for this year’s prize. But I think the realization did arise that, hey, it’s almost two decades since Kidman won her Oscar, and she’s built up a pretty solid resume in between -- beyond her nominated roles, excellent work in films like Birth, Destroyer, and Bombshell, plus solid TV output. One began to hear, You know: Kidman probably deserves a second Oscar -– just not for THIS! So, I say she picked up points here, points that will serve her well when she latches onto a dominant role in a more prominent film. She’s featured in Eggers’ The Northman –- coming next month, and who knows what that’ll be? –- then it’s the Aquaman sequel. But there’ll be much more: she’s an established Hollywood presence -– her early Tom’s-wife status a distant memory –- and I have little doubt she’ll find her way back to the Dolby.

The Kristen Stewart nomination was, at last, vindication for the most determined Twitter mob currently at play. Also, I suppose, for critics, who’ve been praising Stewart’s work pretty much since the Twilight saga finished, and have finally pushed her to Academy recognition. She’s an idiosyncratic performer, to put it mildly, and she may never be to everyone’s taste. But she’s made tons of interesting choices already, and shows no sign of backing off in that department. Her next project is Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future, and it’s easy to be skeptical of AMPAS going for that –- Cronenberg’s been on public radar for four decades, with marginal nominations for Hurt and Mortensen the only acting recognition he’s got (I’d even forgotten about the latter). But Stewart, still exceedingly young, and talented, has a strong future ahead. I think she’ll return – though possibly I won’t live long enough to see her an actual winner.

Remember when you had to explain to people who Olivia Colman was? (“The detective on Broadchurch …the pregnant station chief in that LeCarre series…”) Nobody asks now; the only asking comes from directors, begging her to be in (and brighten) their movies. Three nominations in four years; she’s the new Judi Dench, only with an earlier Oscar start –- who knows how many citations she might eventually rack up? Her immediate agenda consists of what appear to be some kids’ movies, plus one potentially interesting project called Joyride…and, after that, Sam Mendes’ latest. There’ll certainly be plenty to follow. It’s clear Olivia Colman is here to stay, and we ought to get used to seeing her, on both our movie screens, and our TV’s at Oscar time.

Penelope Cruz, like her husband, is now up to 4 nominations (neatly split between Spanish and English), and is perceived to have been heavily in competition this year; this could certainly set her up for more nominations and, possibly, a second win. She has two Spanish-language efforts upcoming; without Pedro, they’re less likely to bring her back. But she’s also scheduled to do Michael Mann’s Ferrari movie, which should get greater attention. What she most certainly is, at this point, is an international star, which will keep her on the Oscar radar for the foreseeable future.

Had she not triumphed the other night, Jessica Chastain would of course be number one with a bullet among this year’s class. In fact, her immediate follow-up project, The Good Nurse, sounds quite intriguing, and might well lead to an encore nomination. Her taking the trophy, though, probably forecloses wins for the near future, barring something extraordinary. She’s very industrious -– curating her own projects, showing decent taste in doing so -– and I could see her becoming a more regular presence at the Oscars. I’ve analogized her to Cate Blanchett, who also had an Oscar gap following her initial white-hot emergence…but who, once she returned (and won) became a perennial nominee. I’d say that’s a more likely scenario than not.

I honestly don’t know what to make of Benedict Cumberbatch as potential future Oscar winner. I can definitely see him nabbing more nominations –- he’s a solid actor, he works consistently with strong creative people. But I’m not sure he’s the sort of actor an audience really warms to -– at least not in most of what I’ve seen him do so far. He’s capable of more crowd-pleasing work -– he’s an engaging presence in this year’s Spider-Man thing –- but his nominated roles have been a bit closed-off/recessive, and actors who work like that need to really hit a bulls-eye to win Oscars. This year, despite vast critical support, he couldn’t get traction even with hometown BAFTA. In the 12 months just ahead, he’ll mostly be seen in lightweight projects –- an Apatow movie, another Doctor Strange –- but he does have a Wes Anderson film coming up after that. He may just be someone who shows up with a nomination every 7-10 years and never wins. Or he may get lucky and hit that bulls-eye. Flip your own coin.

Denzel Washington has become a bit like Meryl Streep –- racking up nominations in numbers so impressive they’re almost numbing; at the same time, rarely viewed as serious prospect to win. Will he, like Streep, one day simply become too much to deny? Given his previous track record, he might slip back into a run of Magnificent Seven/Equalizer-ish movies; they won’t get him near the Oscars. But this was his fourth nomination in the past ten years; he seems to be concentrating a bit more on legacy stuff. I feel like that’s going to build pressure for a third win, the next time he gets close.

Andrew Garfield certainly made gains on my personal list. Though I’d touted him highly back in his breakout year of 2010, I wasn’t fond of his nomination in 2016 (or his back-up credit in Silence). Hell, I didn’t care for his work in Eyes of Tammy Faye, just last September. But tick…tick…Boom! really knocked my socks off; it’s the first time in years I’ve been reminded of the actor who’d so impressed me a decade ago. Apparently, many agreed: though, in the end, he fell to the Will Smith juggernaut, he won the comedy/musical Globe, and was thought a potential upset candidate by not a few in the business. Whether this will lead him to future Academy consideration is another matter, clearly dependent on the type of material to which he can attach himself. Right this minute, like so many, he’s going into TV -– all his IMDB projects right now are of the small screen variety. But I’ll be interested to see where his next film opportunities come from, now that people have seen what he can do.

No way in hell will he be back…is what we’d have said about Mel Gibson, before his sudden, improbable return a few years back. So maybe we shouldn’t make overly strong pronouncements about Will Smith’s future. Still… Mental exercise: what would we have said about Smith, had his evening gone simply to expectation -– i.e., he’d won, given a crowd-pleasing speech, walked off a beloved champion? I think I’d have argued that, for a lightly-talented actor, he’d done very well for himself, but that Academy voters would likely see this award as being enough honor for a lifetime –- though I might have noted that his immediate schedule featured films that seemed to have serious aspirations: Fuqua‘s Emancipation (about a runaway slave), and The Council, where he’d play notorious NY gangster Nicky Barnes. To return to reality, however…who knows what’ll now happen with those projects, given changed context? The latter may never be filmed; the former will presumably get some release, but after how long a delay? (Some at the studio may be wishing they could Kevin Spacey him out of it entirely.) This is all unprecedented, so prediction is almost laughable. My as-uninformed-as-anyone’s guess: whatever Smith’s overall career prospects (Twitter shows he’s got loyal fans, but has also generated serious outrage), Academy voters are going to want to keep as much distance as they can. For the next decade, I’d say, unless he gives a performance that parts the Red Sea, he won’t be turning up on Oscar ballots.

I could say some of the same things about Javier Bardem that I did about his wife –- 4 nominations, both English and Spanish -– with the obvious difference that Bardem was never in contention for the win this year, and in fact was lucky to make the nomination cut. Nonetheless…he remains a popular international star, and an excellent actor, so he can always make a return to the Academy stage -- though not, I suspect, in the immediate future. His current schedule shows him locked into a cycle of fantasy films: The Little Mermaid, Bride of Frankenstein, Dune 2, and some kids’ crocodile movie, none of which appear likely to bring him personal Oscar attention (unless Dune 2 is way more an actors’ film that Part 1). Whenever he returns to serious movies, however, we’ll be waiting for him.

Jessie Buckley has seemed to be everywhere these past few years –- in prestige TV, Netflix films, Oscar-adjacent acting vehicles -– and she finally broke through for a nomination. I doubt she got close to winning this time around, but I’d say she’s poised to be a presence in film over the coming decade. Her schedule is eclectic -- films by Alex Garland, Sarah Polley, and the writer of Small Axe/Ida –- but her talent is immense, and I think we might get used to seeing her.

Kirsten Dunst was first mentioned for an Oscar nomination when Ariana DeBose was 3 years old; since it took her this long to actually get one, I’m not sure we should expect a quick return. She’s established a solid presence for herself in slightly offbeat films, and I think has engendered a decent deal of respect. Whether that means a more visible career post-nomination, or continued work on the periphery, could very much be up to chance. She, too, has an Alex Garland film just ahead, but not the same one Jessie Buckley is in (she’s attached to his subsequent Civil War). I’ve been fond of Dunst since Vampire days, and I’m happy to root for her continued success -– at whatever level she achieves.

Ariana DeBose was technically a no-name three months ago, but somehow has a teeming schedule of upcoming films. People in position to hire either screened her film early, or judged her a hot prospect simply from the Anita casting. In either case, she’ll be highly visible over the next few years. Caveat, though: the films on her IMDB page –- Argylle, I.S.S., Kraven the Hunter -- all seem determinedly commercial projects. This isn’t to say one or another might not turn out special…just, as a group, they suggest an actress seeking to become a movie star, rather than a dedicated thespian. Meaning it’s hard to say if she’ll be making the sort of movies that’ll get her back to the Oscars. But we’ll see.

God love Judi Dench -– 87 years old, apparently her sight limiting her ability to even read scripts, and here she is, still getting nominations, even flying over to Hollywood to support her film last Sunday. She has another film already in the can, Allelujah, directed by old pal Richard Eyre, who’s directed her to two nominations in the past -– meaning, the story may not be over yet. Someday, this will end, but who’d want to take a bet on when? Truly a remarkable Oscar story.

Aunjanue Ellis has been a working actor for a long time without ever before receiving the focus this role in King Richard gave her. Suddenly getting a name in your 50s can change your career trajectory, but it also can be a one-off. Her upcoming projects are a TV show called 61st Street, and a role in Demon House –- a star-laden, Lee Daniels-directed haunted house movie, about which, what can one say? I’d guess Ellis is more likely to retreat back to the working-but-unappreciated niche in which she’s spent most of her life, but I wish her the best.

Hooray for the bonus round, where I fearlessly forecast Jesse Plemons just last year (my first case of instant vindication since Patricia Clarkson 2002-3). Plemons made it quicker than I imagined: the film for which I thought he had an excellent shot, Killers of the Flower Moon, remains ahead on his schedule. There’ll no doubt be more: he continues to attract the interest of nearly every major directing name around. I think he has easily the best chance of any of this year’s non-winners to make it to the stage one day to claim a trophy.

Ciaran Hinds, I’m shocked to discover, is a year younger than I -– how can he look so old? This was his first appearance at the Oscars, and it feels like a nice late-career valentine. Not that he’s ceased working -– he has projects on tap (The Wonder; Cottontail), of the serious sort with which he’s been associated most of his career. Since, however, that career, till the other night, never brought him anyway near the Dolby, I think this is mostly likely a one-off.

Kodi Smit-McPhee, like Kirsten Dunst, seems to have been with us a long time –- certainly since we saw him in The Road in 2009. He has one of the best follow-up credits of anyone on this year’s roster: playing Jimmie Rodgers in Luhrmann’s Elvis. But…it’s hard not to think that someone who held such a seemingly commanding front-runner position (a status he had through the Globes), only to see it snatched away, is unlikely to be lucky enough to get a second shot. I could of course be wrong, but I suspect this was Smit-McPhee’s last best chance.

You look at J.K. Simmons’ IMDB page, and have to conclude this is the hardest-working man in show business (not even including all those Farmers’ commercials). This nomination demonstrated that, if you’re a popular, oft-cast character actor, with the right vehicle, you can occasionally luck into a supporting nomination. I suspect Simmons’ Whiplash win will remain his lifetime Oscar tribute, but I can see him turning up another time or two with nominations.

Troy Kotsur, it will surprise no one to hear, doesn’t have a long list of follow-up projects. Perhaps this will change -– the CODA breakout was late (honestly, mostly the last two months), and he certainly made a favorable impression hopping the banquets. But it’s not as if even CODA’s triumph is going to lead to a boomlet in films centered on deaf characters. (Marlee Matlin won best actress 35 years ago, and this was her first connection with an Oscar film since.) I suspect Kotsur will work, at least for a while. But a return trip seems exceedingly unlikely.

Some of you have disagreed with me on this in the past, but I think Paul Thomas Anderson will one day get the full-on Scorsese treatment –- a best picture/director combo that honors his entire career; this set of nominations only confirms that belief. He’s working more steadily these days than he did in that decade post-Punchdrunk Love, his films have been racking up nominations with regularity, and, at some point, the stars will line up for him. I say, this decade.

How does West Side end up, on the Steven Spielberg ledger? A critical success that got him his 8th directing nomination, or a miscalculatedly unnecessary remake that never drew an audience? I say it’s close to a wash, in career-reputation terms -- not that Spielberg needs anything to upgrade his resume, as he already stands in the top echelon. What’s ahead for the now 75-year-old director? Many in the blogger-business are inking him in for a return next year with his apparently autobiographical The Fablemans. I’ll issue a short caveat: Spielberg can indeed be a master when it comes to both fantasy and historical works…but his attempts at simple human drama have often been his least successful. A Tony Kushner script is a big plus, but I’d still hesitate before declaring this project a sure thing. After that? -– it depends how long he wants to work. I think he probably has his eye on the Wyler/Capra/Ford records for winning best director, and he may keep at it till he reaches one of those goals. It’s not as if retirement is the necessary step it was for those old-timers; if Eastwood can keep at it into his 90s, no reason Spielberg can’t shoot for the same.

Kenneth Branagh’s career has followed unpredictable paths these 35 years or so he’s been on the radar –- hailed auteur in Henry V days, then for-hire director on duds like Jack Reacher and Artemis Fowl; two-time acting nominee with a quality TV franchise (Wallander), but also a lot of disposable roles. It’s kind of fitting he wins his Oscar at the same time his directed/starring Death on the Nile opens to general shrugs. He’s still a young-ish man, and will presumably continue as an actor who sometimes directs. But I suspect this screenwriting Oscar will be his lifetime gift from the Academy.

Though I have no major problem with Jane Campion’s winning this year, I was among those less excited by the prospect upfront. I thought she’d been, if anything over-rewarded for The Piano (the screenplay being that film’s least-distinguished element), and her rather sparse output since didn’t strike me as meriting career tribute. The win, of course, is now in the books…but the future? She doesn’t turn out all that many films, and the near-snub Dog received the other night suggests her win this year was a case of good timing rather than significant affection. All of which is to say, I rather doubt we’ll see her at the Oscars again. Maybe in another 28 years?

It’s kind of a kick that Ryusuke Hamaguchi has his post-Oscar follow-up set to go: his latest, called Our Apprenticeship, is scheduled for Japanese release this year (though that may be over-optimistic). It’s folly to try and predict how such a distinctive filmmaker will fare with the Oscars over his career –- this victory alone seemed a gift from the gods (and the old-line film critics). But he’s certainly taken a major leap these past few months: once a filmmaker barely known to a few critics/cineastes, now a major world director who’s won prizes Fellini and Bergman claimed in their day. He may never have this kind of audience success again, but, at least for the immediate future, the film world will definitely keep an eye on him.

I’m finding it hard to work up much enthusiasm for the bonus rounds this time. As I noted upfront, it struck me as a lackluster, limited year; it’s not easy finding under-rewarded folk to predict for future glory. Below the line, I guess I’d advocate for Jonny Greenwood, who’s branched out to working for directors besides PTA. He had the bad luck this year of facing off with a guy perceived as long-overdue for a second win. But, with now a pair of nominations, I’ll put him in the category of “could float into a win at some point.”

Finding a director to tout is even more difficult. Remember the criteria: not as yet nominated, a prospect from this year’s field to make it one day. Since I wasn’t that impressed by those variously boosted by online folk -– Gyllenhaal, Rebecca Hall, Sarnoski (still haven’t been able to track down Shiva Baby) –- I’m stuck picking from the C-list. Maybe Edgar Wright? Last Night in Soho wasn’t anything great, but it was stylishly-made, and he might keep moving up the chain to the point he gets a nomination.

Normally I divide the actors’ bonus round in two –- someone who contended for nomination this year but fell short, then just any old actor who appeared somewhere this year and seems a hot prospect for eventually making the Oscar list. But this year they’re kind of mashed together in my head. (Remember: we exclude anyone who’s ever been nominated, so snubbees like Ruth Negga are ineligible.) Among the strictly-in-the-running, I suppose Alana Haim deserves mention -– but, in truth, her role seemed so specifically fashioned around her persona that it’s hard to know if she’ll ever get this close again. (Cooper Hoffman might have the brighter overall future.) I’d also give consideration to Jamie Dornan, not so much for Belfast, as for the fact I recently watched his work in TV’s The Fall, in which he was pretty spectacular. There’s also Mike Faist, who several of us fruitlessly pushed this season -– but, with him, there’s the definite question, can he do anything else as well as he did Riff?

I’m going to settle on two people who maybe were never actual contenders, but who I think deserved mention: Nina Arianda, who gave the best performance in Being the Ricardos yet somehow managed to be the sole principal cast member not nominated…and Jeffrey Wright, who was wonderful in The French Dispatch, has been wonderful for 30 years now, and surely will get his day in the sun eventually. However you want to slot these two -- in bonus-round-classic or bonus-round-adjunct -- they’re my choices for the year.

Onward to a new, hopefully more exciting (and movie-house-centered) season. Already I can’t wait to see this Michelle Yeoh thing! Happy new movie year to all.