Thoughts on the Day

[Big Magilla]

I suspect that the show will lead off with the big production number being accorded "We Don't Talk About Bruno" followed by jokes by the three hosts. The first award may not get handed out until past the 8:30 mark on the East Coast so anyone watching the St. Peter's game should continue doing so until it ends.

Not expecting much from the show itself. Hoping against hope that there will be an upset in at least one of the three presumed settled acting races. Other than that, hoping that The Power of the Dog prevails in Best Picture as well as takes Cinematography, Editing, and Score in addition to Director and Adapted Screenplay and that Belfast takes Original Screenplay. If any of that happens, there may be some hope for Oscar in the future. If not, they may as well close up shop and concede the game to the Broadcasters.

[Mister Tee]

Another late thought:

As always, I compile predictions from friends and respected (or just unavoidable) critics/pundits. These results are a bit too hive-minded -- no category ends up super-close, and some you'd think might be at least competitive tilt surprisingly one way. But, the least agreed-upon categories:

Above the line, it's clearly best picture. CODA mania definitely has it leading, but only by 40-20 over Power of the Dog (with a lone vote for West Side Story).

Best actress, after all that we've seen, breaks out 53 for Chastain and only 6 for Cruz (with 2 Stewart, 1 Colman).

Adapted screenplay is a not quite put-away CODA 49- Dog 11 (and 1 Lost Daughter).

Original screenplay, is, by default, one of the hottest races: Belfast 35, Licorice Pizza 17, Don't Look Up 6, Worst Person 2, King Richard 1.

Dune solidly leads for cinematography (41 to Dog's 15, with 4 votes among the three others), production design (47 to 12 for Nightmare Alley), and score (51 to 8 for Dog, with Encanto swaying one person).

Encanto also gets some support for song, 13 votes to No Time to Die's 44.

Finally, editing -- one of the most competitive on the night if this survey is to be believed: Dune 38, King Richard 10, tick...tick..Boom! 8, Power of the Dog 4, Don't Look Up 2.

I haven't bothered to tally the shorts; I assume they're closer.

[Sabin]

I don't have a handle on this year. Throughout the Oscar season, I've thought to myself that The Power of the Dog didn't seem like a winner. CODA does, but its win would be historically unprecedented. I don't have a handle on at least ten categories, and I have no idea what the show is going to look like.

I'll just say this... I've been watching all the Oscar movies with my father and his girlfriend. They've hated almost all of them. They just saw Drive My Car and absolutely flipped. My Dad liked it, thought it was way too long, but can't stop thinking about it. His girlfriend thinks it's a great film.They wouldn't have thought about seeing it without the Academy Awards. Honestly, what else really matters?

Enjoy the show!

[Mister Tee]

My hope, as always, is for the expanded membership and extended voting period to allow for independence from the bloody blogger algorithms. The nominations showed signs of this; let's have more.

I've instructed everyone at my party to turn off Twitter post-7PM, to try and preserve suspense in those below-the-line categories.

Can't say how much effect it'll have on ratings, but the Oscars are a bit unlucky the North Carolina/St. Peter's NCAA game doesn't start till 5, and will clearly still be ongoing during the Red Carpet, perhaps into the start of the show. You may think, Not much overlap between sports and the Oscars, but the St. Peter's run has been a Cinderella story getting major TV-movie-like hype (at least here on the Eastern seaboard), and I'm going to keep an eye on it, myself.

The more I read about Will Packer's ideas, the bigger a trainwreck this seems to be shaping up to be. But, we'll give it a chance.