Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

[Mister Tee]

It's funny Sabin raises the question of the last sports-related film to win for screenwriting, when (in the best picture thread) I've analogized King Richard to Chariots of Fire as the potential "we weren't looking there" surprise winner. It's worth noting that, going into that Oscar night 1981, most people thought the competition for original screenplay was strictly between Reds and Atlantic City; people often cite Chariots' costumes win as the signal it was headed for best picture, but, for me, this was the category that jolted the evening. To return to the present: I'm not saying I've moved up to predicting King Richard here -- just that I don't think we should totally sleep on it.

Had Licorice Pizza not won BAFTA, I'd be dismissing its chances of winning almost altogether. Despite the fact it's been one of the decent success stories of the season -- a solid theatrical gross despite no stars and opening at the height of Omicron -- people have seemed determined to dismiss it from the start, and the disappointing showing on nominations day seemed to put it out of the running. But the fact is, it DID win BAFTA -- the place that foretold both winning screenplays last year; so he has to stay on the board.

If I'm honest, I'm not sure I truly WANT Anderson to win this what-amounts-to-a consolation prize. I feel like I want him to have a truly triumphant, sweep-the-boards best picture victory at some future point (with three film/director nods, he has to be considered due, and he's still young enough). If he wins this here, though, they might be less inclined to give him that...as they haven't Payne or Tarantino, despite multiple opportunities. I'd still be happy for PTA were he to win, but a bit ambivalent.

Anyway, however much the BAFTA win seemed a positive sign for a Licorice Pizza win, the loss at WGA to Don't Look Up was an equal downer. I seem to run opposite to many here when it comes to McKay: I thought The Big Short was wholly deserving of its screenplay win, and, though I thought Vice a lesser effort, I didn't think it was nearly the horror many seemed to find it. Don't Look Up, though, struck me as not nearly as clever as it thinks, and, bottom line, just not funny enough. I'd truly be surprised were this to win Sunday night.

Belfast is no great shakes, and is probably a bit better directed than it is written. But it's a 7-times-nominated best picture contender, and the work of a guy who's been around for nearly 35 years -- sometimes riding high, sometimes eating dirt. And it's a generally inoffensive film, which, weirdly, seems to be what some are craving this year (to judge by the CODA-mania).

My bottom line: McKay already has his; Anderson will get his ultimately; this might be the last best chance for Branagh, who's been nominated over and over without result. I think he gets his gold watch this time around.

[Reza]

Branagh with so many Oscar nods, and in all those different categories, is the one to beat in this category for Belfast. And the Academy will anoint this Knight who has never won before. He now has 8 nods. He is way overdue for a win.

[Sabin]

Well, here it is! The most wide open race of the Oscar season. Certainly Best Actress is far from an open-and-shut thing but there's more than enough reason to take SAG voters' thumb on the scale as a sign of things to come. But this category is a three if not four-way race for the gold. The sad thing is whatever wins, each one of these films goes the most wrong on a script level.

The one we can probably count out the soonest is King Richard and its white writer. It's pretty remarkable to me that this wasn't a little more of a thing on the circuit. Looking forward to most people paying their first bit of attention to this fact when his face is shown on camera. Considering he beat out Aaron Sorkin, a nomination is probably reward enough. Besides, when was the last time a sports-themed film won either category? Chariots of Fire?

The Worst Person in the World is probably in fourth place and I'm not content to count it out completely. Despite the fact that a win for being the sole nominee not in a Best Picture, the film is a late starter and there's a lot of enthusiasm behind it. It's arguably the most "writerly" film with devices like chapters and voice-over. Had Neon not dropped the ball on its release, I'm not convinced it wouldn't be up for Best Picture. I have some real problems with it but very few things would make me happier on Sunday than seeing it win.

But it seems as though Best Original Screenplay is down to three. Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don't Look Up. All three of these films are up for Best Picture. Two are up for Best Director. None of them really did quite as well as they could have.

I think first off the list for me might be Licorice Pizza. It has a few things going for it. The BAFTA win against Don't Look Up and Belfast certainly has to count for something. But the last time a film lost the WGA against an Academy Award nominee and came back to win was Almost Famous, a film that Licorice Pizza bears more than a passing resemblance to. But I'm going to stick to my original thinking after seeing the film: I'm just not sure they love this thing enough. Everybody votes for the final prize and this thing picked up nothing outside the writing and directing branches, and it certainly could have.

Then it gets a little tighter. Despite it's seven nominations, I don't think any film performed weaker during its awards season run than Belfast, nominated across the board but winning very little. Ironically, Belfast's high-water mark was probably its screenwriting win from the Hollywood Foreign Press over Don't Look Up and Licorice Pizza. It seemed like a sure thing. But since then, I can't help but feel as though it's lost his crowd-pleaser status to CODA. Is there room for two? Sure. And we don't know how it would have done with the WGA crowd, but I just don't the sense that a group that voted for Don't Look Up was waiting on pins and needles for Belfast.

But against my better judgment, I think I'm going out on a limb and predicting Don't Look Up. I'm sure there's a case to be made against it. After all, look at wins for Eighth Grade and... well, I'm sure certain others. But Don't Look Up has something else going for it that no other film in the running does: the big hook. It has the highest concept, which helped many triumph in this category over the past ten years or so. But why not go with my guts? Just like when I saw Licorice Pizza and wondered if the Academy was really going to go for it, I'm going to stick to my original feeling when I first saw Don't Look Up: I really think it has some fans out there. And certainly Adam McKay does, considering this is his third Best Picture/Writing nomination in a row.

So, I guess I'm predicting Adam McKay wins again.

[Big Magilla]

Writing awards don't tend to avoid controversy. Pulp Fiction, Get Out, and Promising Young Woman, for example, won their only Oscars in this category. But I look at the WGA win for Don't Look Up as a snub of Licorice Pizza as opposed to a solid endorsement.

I do think this is Belfast's best, if not only, shot at an Oscar.

[anonymous1980]

The nominees:

Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

Oh, this is a contentious three-way race now. Let's eliminate King Richard. Most people don't think of that as a screenplay film. The Worst Person in the World obviously has passionate fans but not enough to maybe win here. The rest have a good chance at being maybe their film's one Oscar consolation prize win: Belfast won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. Licorice Pizza then beat Belfast in BAFTA of all places. Licorice Pizza got beaten by Don't Look Up in WGA where Belfast was ineligible. Well, Don't Look Up is quite divisive in its messaging despite its obvious supporters (plus Adam McKay doesn't need another Oscar). Licorice Pizza has been targeted for both its perceived problematic central relationship and those scenes involving the guy with the Japanese wives. I think in the end Belfast will MAYBE eke out a victory here because it's the least controversial of the three.