Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Sabin wrote:

Greg wrote
For whatever reason, Supporting Actress is the one category where I have performed by far the best in predictions over the last decade+.

I think one could make the argument that the category of Best Supporting Actress has largely been the most predictable over the last decade+. All of the largely agreed-upon frontrunners pulled off their wins. You deserve credit for not overthinking the forecast and going with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, or Rachel Weisz for The Favourite as some of us did.

You can go back to the turn of the millennium, really. Only 2004 and 2008 were even truly competitive (maybe 2005, if you want to stretch it); the rest were favorites coming home. Over the same period, supporting actor had competitive races in 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2012, with clear upsets in 2006 and 2015.

This was especially surprising because, for the decade preceding, supporting actress had been the wild ride category: Tomei, Paquin, Binoche and Harden were jaw-dropping upsets, and several other years were way less certain than recent ones.

Actually, as I think over it, we've probably had more genuine surprise or competition in the leading categories this past decade than in support: Streep, Colman and Hopkins being significant upsets, Dujardin, Lawrence, Affleck, and McDormand prevailing in hard-fought contests.

Greg wrote
For whatever reason, Supporting Actress is the one category where I have performed by far the best in predictions over the last decade+.

I think one could make the argument that the category of Best Supporting Actress has largely been the most predictable over the last decade+. All of the largely agreed-upon frontrunners pulled off their wins. You deserve credit for not overthinking the forecast and going with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit, Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs, or Rachel Weisz for The Favourite as some of us did.

As far as the categories where I have been the most successful over the years:

3 Year In A Row: Production Design, Sound/Sound Mixing
4 Yeas In A Row: International Feature/Foreign Language Film
...
6 Years In A Row: Supporting Actor
...
...
...
...
...
...
13 Years In A Row: Supporting Actress

For whatever reason, Supporting Actress is the one category where I have performed by far the best in predictions over the last decade+.

Returning to my tradition, here is the most recent year, based on the years the films were released, where I correctly predicted a category:

2021:
Direction
Original Screenplay
Lead Actor
Lead Actress
Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress
International Feature
Animated Feature
Live Action Short Subject
Original Song
Original Score
Sound
Production Design
Costume Design
Visual Effects

2020:
Picture
Adapted Screenplay
Documentary Feature
Animated Short Subject
Film Editing
Makeup And Hairstyling

2019:
Documentary Short Subject
Cinematography

Sabin wrote:Oh cool! I guess I did have a handle on the year.

Congratulations, criddic!

Thank you, and Congrats to you!

I don’t know if I ever quite made it to the winners circle here. So that’s fun!

Big Magilla wrote:Congratulations CalWilliam and Banana Onana, you did worse than me. I was hoping to come out on the bottom of this fiasco.

Living in denial brings this kind of dellusion.

Congratulations CalWilliam and Banana Onana, you did worse than me. I was hoping to come out on the bottom of this fiasco.

Congratulations Sabin & Criddic3!!

Oh cool! I guess I did have a handle on the year.

Congratulations, criddic!

THE RESULTS!!!

The answers to the bonus questions were: Sidney Poitier was the FIRST person in the In Memoriam and Charles Grodin was the last. No one got that right. The answers to the #OscarsFanFavorite and #OscarsCheerMoment was Zack Snyder. LOL. I hope they don't do that again.

Anyway, no one got bonus points since the awards went as expected and big swing predictions did not pay off. And we have TWO winners this year! And here are the results:

36 points - CalWilliam
39 points - Banana Ohnana
45 points - Big Magilla
46 points - Franz Ferdinand
48 points - Greg
49 points - Reza
51 points - Eric
54 points - Aceisgreat, Jefforey Smith, dws1982 and Heksagon
58 points - mlrg
60 points - anonymous1980, nightwingnova, Oscar Guy and Mister Tee


and winners with 62 points each are....

criddic3 & Sabin

Congratulations!

I went 20/20 in my group's Oscar pool (we don't do the shorts), I should have kept those picks the same here

OscarGuy wrote
I am disgusted that toxic masculinity has used and abused the deaf community to take it out on The Power of the Dog, which exposed them for what they are: petulant, self-serving bigots who don't want to take responsibility for the ways they marginalize women. They have inadvertently made a different point, but fuck them anyway.

I don’t understand. Can you rephrase?

Also, congratulations.

I went from my single worst year in predicting the Oscar nominations to my single best year in predicting the Oscar winners. I missed 3, all the short films.

I am disgusted that toxic masculinity has used and abused the deaf community to take it out on The Power of the Dog, which exposed them for what they are: petulant, self-serving bigots who don't want to take responsibility for the ways they marginalize women. They have inadvertently made a different point, but fuck them anyway.

I do not have a handle on this year.

Best Picture: CODA (The Power of the Dog)
Best Direction: Jane Campion, The Power Of The Dog
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
Best Lead Actor: Will Smith, King Richard
Best Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best International Feature: Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Live Action Short Subject: The Long Goodbye (Please Hold)
Best Documentary Short Subject: Audible
Best Animated Short Subject: Robin Robin
Best Original Song: "No Time To Die," No Time To Die
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog (Dune)
Best Film Editing: Dune
Best Sound: Dune
Best Production Design: Dune
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Visual Effects: Dune
Best Makeup And Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

01: Sidney Poitier last person In Memoriam
02: William Hurt first person In Memoriam
03: Empty-handed Best Picture nominees: Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza, and Nightmare Alley
04: Spider Man: No Way Home OscarsFanFavorite
05: Spider-Man Team Up OscarsCheerMoment

I guess I missed the predictions deadline. Kinda snuck up on me. Oh well....

Have fun tonight, everyone!