Categories One-by-One: Animated Feature

[OscarGuy]

The Annies don't have the best track record. They were big DreamWorks glory hounds for the longest time (because Disney/Pixar were being assholes). Disney/Pixar are back in their good graces, but Netflix is now their go-to selection.

[Mister Tee]

I don't have a list handy, but my recollection is the Annies frequently go for something other than the Academy choice. The BAFTAs and PGA are the places to look for actual evidence of a front-runner. Right now, all we really have is the Globe win and a general "the movie is a sensation" feel to mark Encanto as the favorite.

[OscarGuy]

Klaus also won at the Annies. I doubt it's much of a bellwether. See what BAFTA does.

[anonymous1980]

The Mitchells vs. The Machines just won at the Annie’s. Could we be looking at a possible upset?

[FilmFan720]

Maybe I'm late to the game, but this conversation just made me realize that you have two nominees here (Flee and Mitchells...) with LGBTQ lead characters, and a third (Luca) which is very clearly an allegory for being a gay kid. That has to be some sort of record!

[danfrank]

I've seen four of the five nominees. Flee isn't really on my radar. I've heard too much about how it seems to be a gay film made for straight people.

This is a silly notion, in my opinion, mostly because I don’t see this very much as a “gay film.” Yes, the main character is gay and it explores to some degree his coming of age as a gay Afghani young man, but that part of the story is secondary to the main focus of the film, which is the character’s harrowing journey as a refugee.

It’s hard for me to fathom how this would be the one film among the nominees you haven’t seen, as it is the only one of the five I HAVE seen. I can’t abide much by “goddamned cartoons (I still miss Damien’s hysterical declarations)” but this one, made for adults, is well worth seeing.

[OscarGuy]

I think the reason Encanto and Raya are seen by some to be similar is because fairy tales and legends from around the world often share similar elements, including the embodiment of certain qualities in others. Think of Kung Fu Panda before Raya. The cultural connections are rather similar in both. I don't think that Encanto and Raya have intentionally similar elements because they are copying one another, but because that's just how such stories carry from one culture to another. How much of Christianity borrowed from other cultures and religions? I mean there's some heavy influence from Egyptian mythos.

I've seen four of the five nominees. Flee isn't really on my radar. I've heard too much about how it seems to be a gay film made for straight people. That reminds me too much of something like Green Book, which was a Black story for white people or like The Help, which is a Black story for white people. And maybe that's a little off base, but this kind of argument is what I'm hearing from some in the gay community, so I'm reticent to accept defense from anyone outside of the LGBTQ community.

Anyway, I'd rank them:

Encanto
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon

[Big Magilla]

I've only seen three, have no desire to see the other two.

I think Flee's best chances are in Documentary despite its tough competition from Summer of Soul. If I had a ballot, that's where I would vote for it with Luca my choice over Encanto in Animated Feature.

Luca is more inventive than Encanto but Encanto's popularity will likely see it through to the win.

[Mister Tee]

having just seen Raya and the Last Dragon, it struck me just how similar it was to Encanto.

I'm amazed no one has called them out on this. As I said when discussing the films: Each features a family with individual super-powers, one of which is the ability to create weather. This is the kind of thing that, were it not intra-studio, might have brought a plagiarism suit.

[Okri]

I know that we all agree that vote splitting is silly and supporting predictions on it is a ludicrous idea. But, not gonna lie, having just seen Raya and the Last Dragon, it struck me just how similar it was to Encanto. Of course, all Disney films follow the same templates and asserting that two Disney films appeal to the same audience... news at 11. But I slightly preferred Raya (the animation is better, the story actually goes somewhere) and wonder if Raya can steal some of votes that would otherwise go to Encanto. Heck, they even have the same metacritic score

Like anonymous, my favourite of the Disney films is Luca. Watching it get largely minimized this year was odd. It's the only one of the three I can imagine watching again. Conversely, despite the enthusiasm, I really disliked The Mitchells vs the Machines and would consider a win for it probably the nadir of the category (I also wasn't the biggest fan of The Lego Movie either. It's fine). I don’t think my opinion is shared, though and think it’s likely the one to upset Encanto.

Flee, of course, is by far the most acclaimed movie of the category. The thing that strikes me about the “adult” films in this category is that, by and large, they aren’t more acclaimed than the “for all ages”. I Lost My Body, Anomalisa, the Anderson duo. Looking at metacritic, none of them got higher scores than the others. That’s not the case this year – Flee has a 94 vs an 81 for Mitchells, 75 for Raya/Encanto and 71 for Luca. I suspect it’s triple header nominations will get people to see it. It’s very moving and very topical. Now, I loved it and I suspect my admiration is leading me to overstate it’s chances (heck, I even took a flyer on it in best picture), but I think it can win.

So, Encanto with Mitchells as a close 2nd and Flee being the darkhorse.

[Sabin]

I'd bet anything that Encanto walks away with it. Both it and Flee are unique in that they're the first animated features since Toy Story 3 to get more than two nominations, although Flee is sort of in its own universe being nominated as a whole three times whereas Encanto is up for music and score. When you think about it, it's pretty remarkable. The 2000's saw PIXAR unrivaled for masters of their animation domain but the last ten years has seen studio after studio wrestle for that mantle, least of all Disney which under John Lasseter has at least equalled if not surpassed PIXAR in popularity with films like Frozen, Moana, and Zootopia. None of them managed a Best Original Score and Original Song nomination or a single tech nomination. Only Inside Out managed a writing nomination and had the [unrealized] potential to breakaway with more. But at the very least, isn't it odd that none of those films managed a Best Original Score nomination to go with their Original Song contenders? Not Moana? Not Frozen? Certainly a link between those two was more common during the Two Original Score's era (I miss) but it's been so long since we've seen such a pairing that I didn't even predict Encanto would be able to get away with it.

Anyway, Encanto will walk away with this, raising Disney's new renaissance (Tangled - current) total to four (alongside Frozen, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia).

[gunnar]

I enjoyed all five movies in the slate. I thought Luca, The Mitchells vs the Machines, and Flee were all about equal with Encanto a little behind them and then Raya. I would go with Luca to win, giving it a slight edge over the other two. I wouldn't have any problem with Mitchells winning, though.

[Franz Ferdinand]

"We Don't Talk About Bruno" is a genuine phenomenon; it's currently in its fifth week at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 (the first and only song from a Disney animated movie since "A Whole New World" reached #1 - for one week - in 1992, and the longest-running Disney #1 period, replacing Bryan Adams/Rod Stewart/Sting's "All For One" from The Three Musketeers, which was #1 for three weeks in 1994). Based solely on my daughter's tastes, Mitchells would be winning this handily, although I wouldn't mind the zero-stakes plot but gorgeous animation of Luca winning.

[anonymous1980]

"We Don't Talk About Bruno" is actually a viral hit. Pretty damn good song though but Encanto wouldn't be getting my vote.

It is kind of frustrating that the Academy often defaults to Disney or PIXAR in this category. However, my personal favorite of the bunch is Luca, which some people have branded as "lightweight" PIXAR which I really disagree. I personally think it's one of their most creative efforts.

I do think Flee has a shot at upsetting Encanto. It's clear that it cannot beat Drive My Car in International Feature or Summer of Soul in Documentary. I think its fans may concentrate their efforts getting them this one.

[Mister Tee]

The nominees:

Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

Can nothing be done about the default to Disney/PIXAR in this category?

I understand, the category owes its existence to, first, the Disney renaissance, and then the PIXAR breakthrough. But, in the first couple of years, other studios competed and in fact prevailed. Monsters Inc. was a strong late entry in the inaugural year, 2001, but Shrek had planted its flag early, and won the prize. The following year, a weak Disney entry -- Lilo & Stich -- fell to the magnificence of Spirited Away. PIXAR rather easily won the next two years, with Finding Nemo and The Incredibles, but there was no Disney candidate in 2005, and, in 2006, Cars -- generally seen as a weak PIXAR effort -- fell to Happy Feet.

That was the last bad news for the Disney/PIXAR empire. In the 14 years since, one or the other has won the category 12 times. The only exceptions were 2011, when Rango triumphed against a no-Disney slate, and 2018, where the Mouse House only offered up two middling sequels (Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet); Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse was, if anything, the alternative to Isle of Dogs.

I'm of course not arguing this is a 14-year outrage. Wall-E, Toy Story 3 (especially in tandem with the two films that preceded the category), Inside Out, and Soul were terrific films that would have been feted in any year. And some of the others are at least acceptable choices. But The LEGO Movie was essentially blocked from competing by the tight-knit animation branch, iffy efforts like Brave and Toy Story 4 beat out credible challengers, and stellar films like Fantastic Mr. Fox, Kubo and the Two Strings, I Lost My Body, and the entire How to Train Your Dragon franchise go home empty-handed, while Disney/PIXAR builds another shelf for its trophy case.

This year seemed prime to break that streak, as critics' groups (including NY) came out dominantly for The Mitchells vs. the Machines (it says something about how people view the animation branch, that many YouTubers expressed relief at the film's nomination, half-expecting another LEGO-like snub). The other strongest candidate, per the critics, was Flee -- a far different sort of candidate (both documentary and adult, neither of which have yet been taken seriously by voters in this category).

But our dependable arbiters of base-line taste, NBR and the Globes, ignored both of those and went, per usual, with Disney's latest, Encanto. I don't have acquaintance with small children, so I couldn't know this first-hand, but I'm told everywhere that Encanto has now reached Frozen levels of giddy love among the sub-teeners, and people think the film is thus unbeatable at the Oscars. Which is remarkable for such a mediocre, derivative film whose narrative structure more or less collapses in the final half-hour.

I honestly don't know how many voters even mark a ballot in this category...or how many of those take it any more seriously than "Which one is Disney? That's my vote". I suppose the PGA can affect the course of this one (they did, as I recall, vote, in vain, for LEGO). But I fear this is a spot where the old-time Academy tide is just too strong, and Disney will simply extend its ridiculous dominance.