SAG Winners

[Sabin]

Yes, we're quite off-topic but what can I say? I like that we're talking about film in an era where film is "dead."

Anyway, I think it's a perfectly well-written take from someone who has a point of view and a personal taste that is divergent from mine. I'll say this: I didn't realize before that article that there's never been a Sundance film that's won Best Picture. I also think he makes a fantastic point that every Oscar season, there are a series of "anointed" films (and that is true) that either maintain their status or lose it. CODA was never anointed and that's one of the reasons why everyone is turning their heads towards it now. It certainly does upend a season-long Oscar narrative of "The Power of the Dog vs. Belfast" in a very exciting way. I'm not a fan of CODA but it's underdog status is absolutely legitimate.

But I'll say this as well. The older I get, the more important it is for me that a Best Picture be memorable than good. My favorite films almost never win Best Picture (Parasite winning was magnificent), so I'd rather the Academy honor a conversation piece than something that we instantly move on from. Because real excellence is so rarely honored, I enjoy the Academy as a rolling historical document. A win for CODA may not be my preference but there is a lot to say about its win: both about the industry's relationship with diverse stories but also its relationship with streamers. CODA is not payrolled by a streamer. It's a true independent film that was acquired by a streamer, which might explain why it's connecting with viewers emotionally in a way that films payrolled by streamers/Netflix are not. Netflix's formula is basically "Auteur + Money = Oscar?" Which has led to some remarkable films but none of them are ever quite emotionally affecting enough. I like The Power of the Dog quite a bit and it would be my favorite of the nominees (although I'll be seeing some of them again) but I can't deny that there's a "Why now?" quality to it. I also very much like the fact that ever since I saw it (on the big screen, mind you) I've never quite felt as though it was a Best Picture winner and I enjoy having my suspicions validated.

I guess what I'm trying to say is the reason why I'm fine with CODA winning is the same reason why I'm still going to an Academy Awards Discussion Board after twenty years.

[Big Magilla]

Owen Gleiberman on why CODA could win Best Picture.

https://variety.com/2022/film/columns/c ... 235192697/

Gleiberman loved Green Book winning best picture, shouted loudly that Spider Man had to be nominated for best picture, and now this... When did he decide shilling for crud was his calling as a critic?

The Academy has often been seen in the past "shilling for crud".....Forrest Gump....recently Green Book. But instead of them calling these films "crud" they prefer to call them "crowd pleasers".

Who knows that with people mired in the depths of the pandemic are now desperately looking out for crud....err, a crowd pleaser. CODA, this year, fits that bill.

We're getting far afield of the SAG winners here, but being responsible for some of it, I can't complain.

I like Forrest Gump. I know it has a reputation now for being conservative, but I don't remember the politics. I just remember it as a time capsule of the era in which it took place.

I also liked Green Book a lot. It wasn't my favorite film of the year. That was the non-nominated First Man, but Green Book was choice among the nominees with Spike Lee my choice for Best Director for BlacKkKlansman. You can like them both!

The CODA article was so badly written I wasn't even going to comment on it, and I won't, except to say it didn't make its case. What I objected to, however, was the revisionist take on the 1986 Best Actress race.

Marlee Matlin was my choice that year, but Sigourney Weaver in Aliens was not her closest rival. New York, National Board of Review, and National Society winner Kathleen Turner in Peggy Sue Got Married was. The Globes were the only precursor that even nominated Weaver. Gleiberman knows better. He is clearly playing to a younger audience for whom Aliens is sacrosanct. He may even believe it himself now, but I doubt very much that he would have thought that then. Maybe someone can dig out his Oscar predictions at the time to prove me wrong but like I said, I doubt it.

[Okri]

There's a whole group of Johnny Depp stans out there voting for it -- I'm not kidding.

A utterly predictable Internet thing, totally unforeseen by the geniuses on the AMPAS board, who demonstrate that, in addition to not understanding Oscar fans, they also don't understand social media.

I'm not gonna lie, I want something absurd like that to win.

[Reza]

Owen Gleiberman on why CODA could win Best Picture.

https://variety.com/2022/film/columns/c ... 235192697/

Gleiberman loved Green Book winning best picture, shouted loudly that Spider Man had to be nominated for best picture, and now this... When did he decide shilling for crud was his calling as a critic?

The Academy has often been seen in the past "shilling for crud".....Forrest Gump....recently Green Book. But instead of them calling these films "crud" they prefer to call them "crowd pleasers".

Who knows that with people mired in the depths of the pandemic are now desperately looking out for crud....err, a crowd pleaser. CODA, this year, fits that bill.

[Mister Tee]

Owen Gleiberman on why CODA could win Best Picture.

https://variety.com/2022/film/columns/c ... 235192697/

Gleiberman loved Green Book winning best picture, shouted loudly that Spider Man had to be nominated for best picture, and now this... When did he decide shilling for crud was his calling as a critic?

[Sabin]

Owen Gleiberman on why CODA could win Best Picture.

https://variety.com/2022/film/columns/c ... 235192697/

[Mister Tee]

There's a whole group of Johnny Depp stans out there voting for it -- I'm not kidding.

A utterly predictable Internet thing, totally unforeseen by the geniuses on the AMPAS board, who demonstrate that, in addition to not understanding Oscar fans, they also don't understand social media.

[FilmFan720]

One could suppose that the average SAG-AFTRA voter has more in common with Joe and Jane Popcorn than it does with serious film critics, and yet none of the SAG winning films are in the race for the Academy's Fan Favorite voted on by the real Joe and Jane Popcorn.

Vote closes Thursday, March 3.

Current top ten are (alphabetically):

Army of the Dead
Cinderella
Dune
Malignant
Minamata
The Power of the Dog
Sing 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Suicide Squad
tick...tick...Boom!

https://twitter.com/TheAcademy/status/1 ... 7724147712

If the winner gets no Oscar what's the point of this inane addition by the Academy?

I would think that would only vindicate the Oscars, showing that folks passionate about movies enjoy the same films the Academy membership loves.

When this stupid competition was first announced, I just assumed SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME was the foregone winner. I should have known the Snyder-bros were going to do their best to make him a semi-Oscar winner. I never thought TICK, TICK, BOOM let alone THE POWER OF THE DOG had a shot. Amazing!

While some of these movies are surprising, they mostly represent either movies that were broadly popular and would receive just a generally high number of tweets from a large group, or are movies with a smaller but even more passionate fanbase who would be willing to tweet again and again. A few of them seem like they are being pushed by pranksters who want to see the most embarrassing film to win, which would be a karmic way for this experiment to end.

Then there is MINAMATA, a film that received middling but not terrible reviews, and does not seem associated with anyone who might inspire a legion of tweets. That one is the biggest mystery.

There's a whole group of Johnny Depp stans out there voting for it -- I'm not kidding.

[rolotomasi99]

One could suppose that the average SAG-AFTRA voter has more in common with Joe and Jane Popcorn than it does with serious film critics, and yet none of the SAG winning films are in the race for the Academy's Fan Favorite voted on by the real Joe and Jane Popcorn.

Vote closes Thursday, March 3.

Current top ten are (alphabetically):

Army of the Dead
Cinderella
Dune
Malignant
Minamata
The Power of the Dog
Sing 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Suicide Squad
tick...tick...Boom!

https://twitter.com/TheAcademy/status/1 ... 7724147712

If the winner gets no Oscar what's the point of this inane addition by the Academy?

I would think that would only vindicate the Oscars, showing that folks passionate about movies enjoy the same films the Academy membership loves.

When this stupid competition was first announced, I just assumed SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME was the foregone winner. I should have known the Snyder-bros were going to do their best to make him a semi-Oscar winner. I never thought TICK, TICK, BOOM let alone THE POWER OF THE DOG had a shot. Amazing!

While some of these movies are surprising, they mostly represent either movies that were broadly popular and would receive just a generally high number of tweets from a large group, or are movies with a smaller but even more passionate fanbase who would be willing to tweet again and again. A few of them seem like they are being pushed by pranksters who want to see the most embarrassing film to win, which would be a karmic way for this experiment to end.

Then there is MINAMATA, a film that received middling but not terrible reviews, and does not seem associated with anyone who might inspire a legion of tweets. That one is the biggest mystery.

[Big Magilla]

If the winner gets no Oscar what's the point of this inane addition by the Academy?

I think we've discussed that to death in other threads.

My point in bringing it up here was not about its merits, but rather about its disparity with the SAG awards which some people seem to think means that the general public favors things like CODA, King Richard, and West Side Story over The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

Clearly, they do not as far as The Power of the Dog is concerned. I also think the older skewing Belfast is more popular with older Academy members who not tweet their lives away on social media.

[Reza]

One could suppose that the average SAG-AFTRA voter has more in common with Joe and Jane Popcorn than it does with serious film critics, and yet none of the SAG winning films are in the race for the Academy's Fan Favorite voted on by the real Joe and Jane Popcorn.

Vote closes Thursday, March 3.

Current top ten are (alphabetically):

Army of the Dead
Cinderella
Dune
Malignant
Minamata
The Power of the Dog
Sing 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Suicide Squad
tick...tick...Boom!

https://twitter.com/TheAcademy/status/1 ... 7724147712

If the winner gets no Oscar what's the point of this inane addition by the Academy?

[Big Magilla]

One could suppose that the average SAG-AFTRA voter has more in common with Joe and Jane Popcorn than it does with serious film critics, and yet none of the SAG winning films are in the race for the Academy's Fan Favorite voted on by the real Joe and Jane Popcorn.

Vote closes Thursday, March 3.

Current top ten are (alphabetically):

Army of the Dead
Cinderella
Dune
Malignant
Minamata
The Power of the Dog
Sing 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Suicide Squad
tick...tick...Boom!

https://twitter.com/TheAcademy/status/1 ... 7724147712

[OscarGuy]

For what it's worth, the Academy just listed the current leaders in their "Fan Favorite" contest and, surprisingly, The Power of the Dog is among the top ten. Certainly partisans of the film jumping in for it, but that suggests there's a huge base for it. For what it's worth, here are the current leaders as of, apparently, 3 hours ago:

Army of the Dead
Cinderella
Dune
Malignant
Minimata
The Power of the Dog
Sing 2
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Suicide Squad
tick, tick...BOOM!

[rolotomasi99]

I've also been generally skeptical about the notion that Kodi Smit-McPhee will win. He has a very good presence throughout the film but I never thought I was watching an Oscar-winning performance. I couldn't tell you what his big scene is. I personally don't have a strong preference between pretty much any of the nominees this year. I like Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and (honestly) J.K. Simmons about the same for different reasons. But Troy Kotsur has the most typically Oscar-ish part.

I have heard, from quite a few places, that comment about Kodi Smit-McPhee's performance not feeling like something the Academy usual picks as its winner. I do agree it is not showy, with any big Oscar-moment speeches, but that did not stand in the way of Mahershala Ali or Mark Rylance from winning in the past decade. Sometimes subtle performances win, and Smit-McPhee has an amazing presence throughout THE POWER OF THE DOG. Upon my second viewing of the film, I was surprised at how long he disappears in the middle section. Much like Ali and Rylance, he just feels so instrumental to the story despite not having any distinctly "look at me" scene(s) which most winning performances have.

I certainly agree Troy Kotsur stands a chance of triumphing at the Oscars, but his SAG win does not guarantee anything. That fact that he won twice that night for an individual category and Ensemble does not mean much either since several actors have pulled off that feat while still losing at the Oscars: Ed Harris (APOLLO 13), Annette Bening (AMERICAN BEAUTY), Helen Mirren (GOSFORD PARK), Renee Zellweger (CHICAGO), and Viola Davis (THE HELP).

As for that Ensemble win, I do think it moves CODA up on the list of most likely to win Best Picture...but only to 4th place. For all the reason others have listed, this film does not have the profile of a Best Picture winner. Not only does winning Ensemble not guarantee a Best Picture win, CODA could join the likes of THE BIRDCAGE, AMERICAN HUSTLE, HIDDEN FIGURES, and THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 -- films that won at SAG and then were completely shut-out on Oscar night.

[anonymous1980]

One big problem with CODA winning Best Picture is that the last film to win Best Picture with fewer than four nominations was Grand Hotel.

I will expound on this point: Ever since the inception of the Best Film Editing prize in 1934, most Best Picture winners have gotten at least a nomination in four key categories: writing, directing, editing and acting (in that order). A handful of Best Picture winners have indeed won missing a nomination in one of these categories (e.g. Ordinary People missed editing, Parasite missed acting, etc.) But only ONE Best Picture winner missed two of these and still managed to win and that's Hamlet way back in 1948 which missed both writing and editing.

So going by this only The Power of the Dog has all 4 key nominations. Belfast and King Richard only missed one (editing and directing respectively). The rest of the Best Picture nominees missed two or more. So only these three can theoretically win Best Picture while the other 7 are all banking on breaking a 70+ year old statistic including CODA.

In addition to that, CODA also doesn't have a DGA nomination. Only twice has a Best Picture winner since the inception of the DGA award missed a DGA nomination and still won. Once again, Hamlet in DGA's first year (which may not even count since it may have only missed due to some technicalities or first year bugs or whatever) and Driving Miss Daisy.

CODA has a big mountain to climb and break a couple of statistics and trends to win Best Picture (not completely impossible but highly unlikely). It doing well at the SAG's only boosts Troy Kotsur's win chances, no more, no less.

Not that I know what can win best picture. I still feel like Power of the Dog is a wildly unlikely best picture candidate

I don't know why people still say this. Is Power of the Dog any more highbrow or artsier than recent Best Picture winners Moonlight or Nomadland? I personally don't think so. I think it's at par with the tastes of the Academy's changing demographic (younger, more international, more diverse).