DGA Nominations

[Greg]

Which came first, Campion's win or Daylight Savings Time on the East Coast? I think it was her win, but just barely.

Daylight Savings Time came at 2 AM Eastern, which would have been 11 PM Pacific.

[Big Magilla]

Which came first, Campion's win or Daylight Savings Time on the East Coast? I think it was her win, but just barely.

[Sabin]

Best Feature: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best First Feature: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Best Documentary Feature: Stanley Nelson, Attica

[anonymous1980]

I, too, have a feeling Branagh might be the one to get snubbed at the Oscars for someone else. If this happens and he assuming he also gets in Picture and Original Screenplay, he will have continued his streak of getting nominated once in different categories (previous nominations: Director and Lead Actor for Henry V, Live-Action Short Film, Adapted Screenplay for Hamlet and Supporting Actor).

[OscarGuy]

One advantage Dune has over The Martian is that Dune is up for all of the craft categories. It could conceivably take noms in everything from score to Visual Effects. A film that can capture eight nominations BEFORE it gets to Best Picture, is likely to be considered a director's achievement.

These are the films that scored eight or more nominations without a directing citation: A Star Is Born in 2018. Before that, Les Mis in 2012, then Inception in 2010, The Dark Knight in 2008, Dreamgirls in 2006, Moulin Rouge in 2001, Apollo 13 in 1995, Driving Miss Daisy in 1989, The Color Purple in 1985, The Right Stuff in 1983, Ragtime in 1981, The Towering Inferno in 1974, The Poseidon Adventure in 1972, Airport in 1970, Anne of the Thousand Days in 1969, Funny Girl in 1968, Doctor Dolittle in 1967, The Sand Pebbles in 1966, Ship of Fools in 1965, Cleopatra & How the West Was Won in 1963, Love Is a Many-Splendored Thing & The Rose Tattoo in 1955, Quo Vadis in 1951, Since You Went Away in 1944, For Whom the Bell Tolls in 1943, and The Pride of the Yankees in 1942.

So, it's happened 27 total times. Now, if we count in Best Picture, which we are all pretty certain it will land, then the number of prior films to earn 9 or more without a directing is a scant 10 (those are below). And it's been more than 25 years since the last time it occurred.

Apollo 13 (9), Driving Miss Daisy (9), The Color Purple (11), Airport (10), Anne of the Thousand Days (10), Doctor Dolittle (9), Cleopatra (9), Since You Went Away (9), For Whom the Bell Tolls (9), and The Pride of the Yankees (11)

The best analogy is probably Mad Max: Fury Road, the last film to pull off the feat of 8 craft nominations (then it was Sound Editing and not Original Score).

Interesting, Driving Miss Daisy was the most recent of the above 27 to have missed the DGA slate, all of the others got in. So, while I feel confident in keeping to the Mad Max analogy, the last 7 times an 8+ nominee didn't make the Best Director slate, they were nominees at DGA. The caveat again is that all 7 of those films capped out at 8 nominations.

Circling back, I think that hurts Steven Spielberg more than Denis Villeneuve. West Side Story is on track for lots of below the line nominations and possibly an acting nomination or three. So, it's very likely to cap out at 8+. That could benefit Belfast too if that film can pick up more of the citations we expect them to get rather than what the guilds have suggested. So, of Branagh, Spielberg, and Villeneuve, I think Villeneuve might be the safest, but any of the three could miss out. I'm also not 100% on Anderson, but considering the surprise Phantom Thread nomination, I think he could be in a good position.

[Reza]

If the Academy wants to make room for an international nominee I would say Branagh looks like the weakest link

Unless the Academy (delightfully and hopefully once again) has a Color Purple moment. That and (hopefully Villeneuve) also misses out.

[Big Magilla]

Frontrunner Campion is the only one certain to be left standing if the Academy fails to pick the same five, but there's no reason why all five won't be there.

I still think Anderson is the most vulnerable although it's probably Hamaguchi and not del Toro who stands the best shot of supplanting him.

The only way I see Branagh losing favor is if Death on the Nile proves to be such an embarrassment that it puts a pall over him in general.

Spielberg failed to win Oscar bids early in his career for films he had been nominated for by DGA including The Color Purple for which he won, but 3 out of 4 of his last Oscar nods were for films he was not nominated for by DGA, so the odds seem to be more heavily in his favor with Oscar now.

Villeneuve seems secure but so did Ridley Scott with The Martian, so it's possible he isn't as secure as we think.

[rolotomasi99]

Since we've been looking at the surprise resurgence of the lone director nomination in Best Directing, I'm thinking Ryusuke Hamaguchi might be the odd-man in. His film did well with critics, but there's rumor that one film critics love isn't well liked by Academy voters. I might have thought Power of the Dog, but I'm beginning to think the complete absence of that film from the guilds might suggest Drive My Car is that film. If not Hamaguchi, then I think Lin-Manuel Miranda might have a solid profile for a surprise nomination. Everyone loves him even if the music he's written for the movies hasn't been that good, IMO, and based on the list below, Jane Campion is the only non-white guy on the list. If not Hamaguchi or Miranda, then who? Maybe Pedro Almodovar? Guillermo del Toro? Or maybe there's a longshot bid for someone like Jeymes Samuel or even Reinaldo Marcus Green?

Good analysis on who you think might make it in, but of course now I am curious who you think will get pushed out. Do you agree with me that Spielberg is wobbly or do you align more with mlrg's thinking that Branagh could be snubbed...or do you have another choice entirely?

I think Campion is the only one who is truly safe, but then again I said the same thing about Bigelow in 2012 and we all know how that turned out. Still, Campion seems as assured a nom for Directing as any person does this year in any Oscar category.

[OscarGuy]

Since we've been looking at the surprise resurgence of the lone director nomination in Best Directing, I'm thinking Ryusuke Hamaguchi might be the odd-man in. His film did well with critics, but there's rumor that one film critics love isn't well liked by Academy voters. I might have thought Power of the Dog, but I'm beginning to think the complete absence of that film from the guilds might suggest Drive My Car is that film. If not Hamaguchi, then I think Lin-Manuel Miranda might have a solid profile for a surprise nomination. Everyone loves him even if the music he's written for the movies hasn't been that good, IMO, and based on the list below, Jane Campion is the only non-white guy on the list. If not Hamaguchi or Miranda, then who? Maybe Pedro Almodovar? Guillermo del Toro? Or maybe there's a longshot bid for someone like Jeymes Samuel or even Reinaldo Marcus Green?

[rolotomasi99]

Plus First Feature
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall, Passing
Tatiana Huezo, Prayers for the Stolen
Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick...BOOM!
Michael Sarnoski, Pig
Emma Seligman, Shiva Baby

Pretty happy with these noms as well, but definitely disappointed Fran Kranz missed out for MASS. I am rooting for Gyllenhaal to win.

Sabin, you and I are both pleased to see Emma Seligman recognized. That movie was such a balancing act of tone, and she pulled it off perfectly.

I have not seen PRAYERS FOR THE STOLEN, but it is available on Netflix:
https://www.netflix.com/title/81499072

[rolotomasi99]

Just what everyone was expecting.

Anderson
Branagh
Campion
Spielberg
Villeneuve

Agreed, exactly what we were expecting. Of course, there is usually one disagreement between Oscar and the Guild. Last time all five matched up was 2009.

Just yesterday I would have said LICORICE PIZZA is on the bubble, but after WEST SIDE STORY missed Cinematography, Editing, and Ensemble, Spielberg is looking like Scott with THE MARTIAN and Greengrass with CAPTAIN PHILLIPS.

If he is vulnerable, who replaces him? After VICE proved us all wrong, I am not ready to count out McKay. Perhaps Hamaguchi can make it in with Anderson as well if the passion we are seeing from the critics is shared by the Academy Director's branch.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Anyone still want to argue Licorice Pizza's position in this race? I've thought for some time this was the top five, and I'm glad to be vindicated at least this far. All five should be dead-cert best picture nominees; the directing nod is another matter.

When you’re wrong you’re wrong. I’m wrong. The only question is how many nominations does it get.

[mlrg]

If the Academy wants to make room for an international nominee I would say Branagh looks like the weakest link

[Mister Tee]

Anyone still want to argue Licorice Pizza's position in this race? I've thought for some time this was the top five, and I'm glad to be vindicated at least this far. All five should be dead-cert best picture nominees; the directing nod is another matter.

A very healthy first-timer competition.

[Sabin]

Just what everyone was expecting.

Anderson
Branagh
Campion
Spielberg
Villeneuve

Plus First Feature
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall, Passing
Tatiana Huezo, Prayers for the Stolen
Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick...BOOM!
Michael Sarnoski, Pig
Emma Seligman, Shiva Baby