Okay, so consider this less a prediction comment and more a set of musings about this best picture race.
FilmFan720 wrote:An odd year where I absolutely love 5 of these films, really like another 2, and only have little patience for one nominee (Mank).
Mister Tee wrote:For the record,my top five from last year -- The Irishman, Little Women, Parasite, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood -- would all have topped this entire list.
I’ve been more on Tee’s side in terms of this Oscar “season.” It felt weird. It feels both abbreviated (the number of films, particularly big films, that were held back/not released) and distended. With the lack of box office information, it’s difficult to tell how things landed with “the public” – let alone way that being bombarded with streaming “content” means everything feels just.. ephemeral. It doesn’t help, of course, that we’re coming from one of the most galvanizing best picture choices in my (and dare I say our?) memory, which came in part from a terrific festival season (which 2020 didn’t have) and a strong theatrical release/result (ditto). I’m not gonna say films I see on streaming don’t feel real. I will say that I saw
The Irishman, Roma and
Marriage Story in theatres and would’ve loved to do the same for
Mank, Judas and the Black Messiah etc. Heck, I still haven’t figured out a way to see Minari that wouldn’t cost me $20 (CDN) (I live on my own, so as a single person rental fee – 아니 (yes, I went to google translate to write “no” in Korean). So yeah, this year feels weird to me.
But I’m mostly fond of the films.
I wonder to what extent these films made it to the big show by virtue of it being a “weaker” year, such as it was. So, because I felt like wasting time, I went to look at Metacritic to check out the numbers for the last five years.
AVERAGE SCORE
2020: 83.125
2019: 81.9
2018: 78.125
2017: 87.667
2016: 83.444
So, not so bad – right in the middle, actually. 2017 looks very strong, 2018 very weak. But maybe that’s just because of an outlier (cough Bohemian Rhapsody cough). So what’s the median?
MEDIAN SCORE
2020: 83.5
2019: 83
2018: 85.5
2017: 88
2016: 81
In the middle again. But 2018 goes from being super weak to being not so bad anymore. Maybe it’s just a taste thing? But then something caught my eye so I went and looked at every best picture nominee’s Metacritic score from 2016 to 2020, ranked below for you pleasure (score in square brackets)
1st [99]: Moonlight
2nd (tie) [96]: Manchester by the Sea, Roma, Parasite
5th (tie) [94]: La La Land, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Marriage Story, The Irishman
10th (tie) [93]: Nomadland, Call Me by Your Name
12th (tie) [91]: The Favourite, Little Women
14th [90]: Phantom Thread
15th [89]: Minari
16th (tie) [88]: The Father, Hell or High Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, A Star is Born, Black Panther
21st [87]: The Shape of Water
23rd (tie) [85]: Judas and the Black Messiah, Get Out
25th (tie) [83]: The Post, BlacKkKlansman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
28th [82]: Sound of Metal
29th [81]: Arrival, Ford V. Ferrari
31st [79]: Mank, Fences
33rd [78]: 1917
34th [76]: The Trial of the Chicago 7
35th [75]: Darkest Hour
36th [73]: Promising Young Woman
37th [71]: Hacksaw Ridge
38th (tie) [69]: Lion, Green Book
40th [61]: Vice
41st [59]: Joker
42nd [58]: Jojo Rabbit
43rd [49]: Bohemian Rhapsody
And, the best picture nominees that made They Shoot Pictures, Don’t They top 1000 films of the 21st Century ranking (based mostly on top ten lists of the year/top of the decade etc).
1. Moonlight
2. Phantom Thread
3. Parasite
4. Roma
5. Get Out
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. The Irishman
8. La La Land
9. Lady Bird
10. Manchester by the Sea
11. Call Me By Your Name
12. Nomadland
13. Arrival
14. Dunkirk
15. Marriage Story
16. The Favourite
17. The Shape of Water
18. Hell or High Water
19. Black Panther
20. BlacKkKlansman
21. Little Women
22. Minari
23. Mank
24. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
25. Sound of Metal
26. Joker
27. Promising Young Woman
28. The Post
29. A Star is Born
What does this mean? Not much, if I’m honest. Only one 90+ ranking from Metacritic, compared to 4 from 2019 and 2017, 3 in 2016 and 1 in 2018. Some overperform on top ten lists etc compared to their grade (Get Out, Arrival, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Whether that’s post-hoc rationalization or genuine post-hoc appreciation, I don’t know (I prefer to say the latter, but I know that’s not a universal position). That said, only one 90+ rating feels… right for 2020/21 films.
The thing I most like about this season, though, is that there are films that weren’t positioned as “Oscar candidates”, by hook or crook, that still ended up making it on the force of their partisans. I’m thinking something like Sound of Metal or Promising Young Woman. In another galaxy, you could see each settling for early year praise and mentions in “I wish this were nominated” portions of people’s predictions, settling down with an acting and/or writing nomination each, but enthusiasm (or the field’s barreness) got them more. I don’t think Raci gets nominated in a normal year, but I think that speaks poorly of those other years and how the conversation settles, as opposed to a shrug nomination this year.
Anyway, so which film wins? I think this category is one of the more locked in, actually. But I’m eager to hear other thoughts after my perambulations.