My first super early predictions

For the films of 2019
mlrg
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby mlrg » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:34 pm

As every year, here are my pre-precursors predictions. Still three weeks to go until the first awards are announced but I guess nothing will change until then

Best Picture
Bombshell
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Director
Martin Scorsese “The Irishman”
Taika Waititi “Jojo Rabbit”
Noah Baumbach “Marriage Story”
Sam Mendes “1917”
Bong Joon-ho “Parasite”

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo di Caprio “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver “Marriage Story”
Robert de Niro “The Irishman”
Joaquin Phoenix “Joker”

Best Actress
Akwafina “The Farewell”
Scarlett Johansson “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan “Little Women”
Charlize Theron “Bombshell”
Renee Zelwegger “Judy”

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe “The Lighthouse”
Tom Hanks “A Beautiful day in the Neighbourhood”
Anthony Hopkins “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt “Once Upon a Time in a Hollywood”

Best Supporting Actress
Annette Bening “The Report”
Laura Dern “Marriage Story”
Jennifer Lopez “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh “Little Women”
Margot Robbie “Bombshell”

mrhoyer
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby mrhoyer » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:25 pm

Precious Doll wrote:Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?

Whilst I personally don't like the film it got across the board great reviews and has done pretty good business in the U.S. for a film largely spoken in a foreign language.




I enjoyed The Farewell but, I think I enjoyed it more because it was a decently well-made movie that arrived when there hadn't been anything else out of quality for MONTHS. I definitely think the buzz has cooled, but I still see it getting a screenplay nomination. The Hollywood Reporter has Awkwafina as a frontrunner for a Lead Actress nomination which seems... generous. Weak year for Lead Actress?

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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby Sabin » Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:01 am

Precious Doll wrote
Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?

Oh, I wouldn’t know. I haven’t seen it yet. It might sneak in. It just looks like something that seems like a sure bet in summer but gets lost a bit in the fall. But if a few films fail to make an impact (like Ford v Ferrari, The Two Popes, 1917, or Little Women), it will definitely be in the mix.
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Precious Doll
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby Precious Doll » Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:25 am

Are people cooling off The Farewell? Why?

Whilst I personally don't like the film it got across the board great reviews and has done pretty good business in the U.S. for a film largely spoken in a foreign language.

It is interesting to note that the few international markets that it has played in it has underperformed in comparison to its US box office. It was promoted like anything for months were I live, opened wide and sank like a stone, unlike Parasite that got zero publicity, opened in just a handful of cinema and made more money than The Farewell - I suppose they are both examples positive/negative word of mouth.
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby Sabin » Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:15 pm

In a few weeks, I particulate in that "draft" competition I did with some friends last year so I've been doing a little bit of research.


BEST PICTURE
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

THOUGHTS: a mix of question marks, seen and unseen. No idea if The Academy is going to go for Joker but it's going to be high on some ballots. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the Academy is really going to go for an anti-media film like Richard Jewell these days. Less certain about Ford v. Ferrari, Joker, and 1917 and Little Women (obviously bc they're unseen).


BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Taika Watiki, Jojo Rabbit

THOUGHTS: I'm just very dubious about QT's movie's widespread Academy appeal.


BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

THOUGHTS: Leo looks like the weak link to me. I suppose its between him and De Niro or Daniel Kaluuya in Queen & Slim.
NOTE: now that Bale and Damon have been pushed to lead, I am removing Leonardo DiCaprio and replacing him with Christian Bale who is fast approaching "He will get nominated for anything" status.


BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

THOUGHTS: this lineup makes sense to me.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

THOUGHTS: an all-movie star Best Supporting Actor lineup.
NOTE: now that Damon and Bale have been moved to lead, there is a spot open in my estimation. It could go to Joe Pesci or Tracy Letts (who I think is due for a first nomination) but Willem DaFoe has picked up some fans over the years. His nomination for At Eternity's Gate last year was a big surprise. I think they really like him and The Lighthouse is a pretty huge showcase.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

THOUGHTS: Lopez might seem like a flukey nominee but I think Hustlers has picked up enough steam to be taken seriously as a 11-15 contender. It might very well end up with a SAG Ensemble nomination.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Last edited by Sabin on Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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rolotomasi99
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby rolotomasi99 » Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:34 pm

Nominees ranked in order of likelihood in each category. Most follow the conventional wisdom of other early predictions, but I threw in a few "out there" nominees to keep things interesting.

BEST PICTURE

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Marriage Story

1917

Little Women

Jojo Rabbit

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Parasite

Joker

Knives Out

DIRECTING

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Marriage Story

Parasite

Pain And Glory

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Knives Out

Pain And Glory

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Little Women

Jojo Rabbit

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Joker

LEAD ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger - Judy

Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet

Charlize Theron - Bombshell

Alfre Woodard - Clemency

LEAD ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

Antonio Banderas - Pain And Glory

Adam Driver - Marriage Story

Robert DeNiro - The Irishman

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern - Marriage Story

Nicole Kidman - Bombshell

Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Meryl Streep - Little Women

Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino - The Irishman

Brad Pitt - Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Sterling Brown - Waves

Joe Pesci - The Irishman

FILM EDITING

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Ford v. Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

Knives Out

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

The Goldfinch

Little Women

A Hidden Life

Parasite

ART DIRECTION

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Little Women

Ad Astra

The Irishman

Knives Out

COSTUME DESIGN

Little Women

Judy

Portrait Of A Lady On Fire

The Aeronauts

Rocketman

ORIGINAL SCORE

Little Women

1917

The Rise Of Skywalker

Ford v. Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

SOUND MIXING

The Rise Of Skywalker

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

Rocketman

Jojo Rabbit

SOUND EDITING

The Rise Of Skywalker

1917

Ford v. Ferrari

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Rise Of Skywalker

Avengers: Endgame

The Lion King

Ad Astra

Captain Marvel

MAKEUP

Loro

The Rise Of Skywalker

Hellboy
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Reza
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby Reza » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:59 am

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
The Farewell
*The Irishman
Joker
JoJo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
1917
Parasite
Waves

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain & Glory
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Todd Phillips, Joker
*Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

The 6th Spot
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
*Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

The 6th Spot
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
&/or
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
*Renée Zellweger, Judy

The 6th Spot
Awkwafina, The Farewell

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
*Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood

The 6th Spot
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
&/or
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
&/or
Christian Bale, Ford and Ferrari

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
*Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Meryl Streep, Little Women

The 6th Spot
Thomasin McKenzie, JoJo Rabbit
Last edited by Reza on Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Franz Ferdinand
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Re: My first super early predictions

Postby Franz Ferdinand » Thu Aug 08, 2019 11:14 pm

Take them with a grain of salt if you must, but Rotten Tomatoes has been doing ridiculously early predictions for actor and actress.

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My first super early predictions

Postby anonymous1980 » Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:57 pm

Let's see how right (or more likely wrong) I am come year's end.


BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Ad Astra
The Farewell
The Goldfinch
Harriet
The Irishman
JoJo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Parasite
The Report
Rocketman


BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
James Grey, Ad Astra
John Crowley, The Goldfinch
Kasi Lemmons, Harriet
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonion Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, The Report
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Oakes Fegley, The Goldfinch
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Jeffrey Wright, The Goldfinch

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Annette Bening, The Report
Jamie Lee Curtis, Knives Out
Nicole Kidman, The Goldfinch
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Anna Paquin, The Irishman

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
James Grey and Ethan Gross, Ad Astra
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Kasi Lemmons and Gregory Allan Howard, Harriet
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...In Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Peter Straughan, The Goldfinch
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Taika Waititi, JoJo Rabbit
Todd Philips and Scott Silver, Joker
Scott Z. Burns, The Laundromat


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