Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.

Sabin wrote:Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.

Yeah. I think he would have, to be honest.

Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

I saw that too. I was surprised to see Lichtman giving Trump the Policy Change key. Either way, Trump has 7 keys against him. This means if it wasn't for the Coronavirus, the long-term economy certainly would have held. The short-term economy possibly would have stayed strong and it is possible that the level of social unrest we are seeing would have been slightly lessened with full economy. It's worth noting that the last time the social unrest key was turned against an incumbent, it was the Vietnam War protests. I think with everybody at work, we don't see the same level of protest. Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.

From The Hill:

According to Lichtman’s system, seven factors favor the former vice president, including Democrats making gains in the 2018 midterm elections, short- and long-term economic hits amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and “social unrest” sparked by the police killing of George Floyd earlier this year.

Lichtman also cited “scandal” for the White House, including Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, and the president not having any major foreign or military successes. He also claimed that Trump is not a “charismatic” candidate for large swaths of the country. The factors that favor the president include there being "no primary contest for the White House party," Trump being the incumbent and there being no significant third-party challenger. Lichtman also cited major policy changes such as Trump’s 2017 tax cut, the White House having no major foreign or military failures, and Biden not being "inspirational or charismatic."

However, Lichtman admitted that “there are forces at play outside the keys,” citing potential voter suppression efforts, possible meddling from Russia in the 2020 election and more.

“It’s up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy,” he said.

Greg wrote:Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.

Maybe but it is still a relief

Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.

If this tidbit from Vanity Fair isn't tantamount to U.S. genocide, I don't know what is:

"Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

That logic may have swayed Kushner. “It was very clear that Jared was ultimately the decision maker as to what [plan] was going to come out,” the expert said."

Full article here:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07 ... o-thin-air

OscarGuy wrote:He will see himself ranked last among presidents. I know he's not going to prison. Though, there is a possibility that he does get his Trump Tower Moscow. Does Russia have an extradition treaty with the US?

It won't faze him to see himself ranked last among presidents. He'll just shrug it off as more fake news. The odds of him or any of his family members going to jail for what we know now are pretty low but if they can prove treason, that's another matter.

Rather than extradite him from Russia, I would prefer to see a refusal to let him back in the U.S. or better still, a banishment to Russia as an alternative to imprisonment when he's found guilty of treason. At that point, the government should seize all his properties if they haven't already, and tear his name from all the buildings on which it is still displayed.

In the fan fiction version of now, Republicans turn on him because they have no choice but it's still too late and they crash and burn out. Then arrests are made.

He will see himself ranked last among presidents. I know he's not going to prison. Though, there is a possibility that he does get his Trump Tower Moscow. Does Russia have an extradition treaty with the US?

OscarGuy wrote:My hope is that he lives long enough to see historians rank him as a worse president in history and to find his entire legacy erased like he did to Obama. Icing on the cake would be for him to witness all of this from behind the bars of the New York State Penitentiary and even more icing, doing so alongside his two eldest sons and his son-in-law while not getting a visit from his daughter because she's in the women's lock-up.

One thing he WILL see if he lives long enough is the out-of-control economic belly flop that's going to infect New York City. He and his family can watch the value of all their properties go down the toilet. And it'd be all his own doing. (Although he'll probably solely blame Deblasio. Tbf, there IS a lot of blame to go around.)

My hope is that he lives long enough to see historians rank him as a worse president in history and to find his entire legacy erased like he did to Obama. Icing on the cake would be for him to witness all of this from behind the bars of the New York State Penitentiary and even more icing, doing so alongside his two eldest sons and his son-in-law while not getting a visit from his daughter because she's in the women's lock-up.

Sonic Youth wrote:American politicians can go far, but are institutionally too set in their ways to got THAT far. Which is not to say Trump didn't cross a dangerous ledge by saying what he did. He did, and that's why he needs to be kicked out of office, and hopefully erased from memory entirely.

No, he needs to be remembered as a deterrent. Never again must we go through what we have gone through the last five years as a country.

mlrg wrote:
If the election happens on the planned date I’ll wire you 20$. If it’s postponed you’ll wire 1000$. Are you in?

Mmmmmm.... no, lol.

But my point was, I think we're taking way too seriously Trump's authoritarian rants as signs that democracy will soon cease to exist. And that may be his wish, but there needs to be ideological and institutional support to make it happen, and I don't see any of that. Which is not to say Republicans don't have that tendency They do, but only through sleight-of-hand techniques like gerrymandering rather than an all-out frontal assault. I predict when the post-mortems are written, most Republican politicians will have no problem saying what an embarrassment Trump was, and while they supported him the best they could, they also have no problem disposing of him once he's too much of a hindrance, even if it means losses in the short-term. If we are to descend into fascism, I think the party in charge would rather have a more appealing - and competent - figurehead.

Anyway, that's why I was so confident to risk a thousand dollars. American politicians can go far, but are institutionally too set in their ways to got THAT far. Which is not to say Trump didn't cross a dangerous ledge by saying what he did. He did, and that's why he needs to be kicked out of office, and hopefully erased from memory entirely.