Campaign 2020

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Thu Nov 14, 2019 5:37 pm

A campaign ad by Elizabeth Warren:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mN0a_ZhYjac

An inadvertent ad for Elizabeth Warren:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/14/lloyd-b ... r-dna.html
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:52 pm

Sanders, campaigning with AOC, says potential Bloomberg bid shows 'the arrogance of billionaires':

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders ... d=66881233
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:52 pm

Just an observation...

I've been on this board now since '98 or '99. Certainly, my interest in politics has increased significantly over the years. I'm not sure there WAS a current events thread during the 2000 election. But I remember the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 primaries and elections.

It says something about the state of the Democratic primary that it's entirely possible all of us will be supporting different candidates. Not only that but we are discussing things like insurance plans with something between passion and anger when we know goddamn well these are just goal posts. I say this not just about this message board but everywhere I go.

The Left has never been so angry and it's never had so many good candidates in one election. This is not 2004 when we had John Kerry, John Edwards, and Howard Dean.

Awareness and engagement is a double-edged sword.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:59 pm

OscarGuy wrote
To be fair to Warren, she did eventually come out with the actual tax plan for funding M4A. The problem is that we're very early in the process. You know who STILL hasn't, in 4 years, found a way to explain how he would pay for any of his proposals? Bernie Sanders. I don't hear us taking him to task so forcefully for the same thing. From the beginning, Warren's plans were always more concrete and credible then Sanders even if they weren't nitty-gritty detailed? No politician offers up concrete plans at this point. It takes time for people to show their math. That Warren took a couple of months to show hers is at least commendable since it's a challenging issue and not a single one of her male competitors has done the same thing. Not Biden (who really doesn't have much of a platform it seems). Not Sanders (who has all sorts of stuff, but no plans). Not Buttegieg.

Not Barack Obama either. And it worked out for him.

Yes, she took time away to come up with a plan. And I agree. It's quite admirable. A lot of bad decisions are admirable as well. Especially political decisions. Instead of being forthright about not having a plan yet, she just ducked the question to the point where *THAT* became the story. But yes, she found a plan that she's now tied to. Literally, the only needle you need to pop Warren's balloon is this:

"So, what happens if you can't pass your proposal? Will taxes go up?"
"... I will pass this plan because [POP]."

It's a corner she didn't need to choose to put herself in. She's great. She should know this.

Say whatever you want about Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Pete Buttigieg, but they're handling this awful "Insurance Primary" objectively better because the only thing that matters is that voters think understand what the candidate stands for. And Warren has certainly lost some credibility.

The big picture is this: the candidate who appeals to voters emotions usually wins. The one who makes an appeal for competency loses. Trump, Obama, Bush 2, Clinton, Reagan... Michael Dukakis might have been the only Democrat to make George Bush look charismatic. I'm concerned Warren might be another "Massachusetts Liberal."
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sonic Youth » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:32 am

She doesn't need to show ANY math. She just needs to make explicit the difference between "taxes" and "expenses" whenever she's asked the "Will you raise taxes" question. That only takes 5% more effort, which is actually less effort than ducking the question altogether.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby OscarGuy » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:02 am

To be fair to Warren, she did eventually come out with the actual tax plan for funding M4A. The problem is that we're very early in the process. You know who STILL hasn't, in 4 years, found a way to explain how he would pay for any of his proposals? Bernie Sanders. I don't hear us taking him to task so forcefully for the same thing. From the beginning, Warren's plans were always more concrete and credible then Sanders even if they weren't nitty-gritty detailed? No politician offers up concrete plans at this point. It takes time for people to show their math. That Warren took a couple of months to show hers is at least commendable since it's a challenging issue and not a single one of her male competitors has done the same thing. Not Biden (who really doesn't have much of a platform it seems). Not Sanders (who has all sorts of stuff, but no plans). Not Buttegieg. Why are we expecting 100% more effort from Warren than any of these guys? This is a rhetorical question, because we all know the answer.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:35 am

Sonic Youth wrote
She's still my candidate, but I've been very disheartened with her these past couple of weeks, especially considering how flawless her campaigning has been up until now. For such a savvy politician, I'm astonished she doesn't realise how deceitful she comes across whenever she dodges the tax question. And she needs to be less dismissive of the fact that there are lots of people who simply want to keep their plans. She's proposing a mammoth undertaking, and it needs to handled delicately so that people can gradually warm up to it. She's really whiffed this issue.

I like Elizabeth Warren a lot. I am concerned that this is a pattern for her. Had she just come out and said “Yes, if we did this there would be a tax increase.” we could’ve just moved on. But she thought it would be politically advantageous to find a way to support M4A without a middle class tax increase, and she found it. It just takes eleven minutes to explain. How is that a win? Same thing as using a DNA test to prove she’s right about having 0.005% (or something) Native American ancestry. She chooses routes that make her seem evasive and I am concerned that she creates problems for herself. That is a terrible habit for a candidate, a President, and especially somebody who has to debate Trump.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:10 am

OscarGuy wrote:Bloomberg filed in, I believe it was Alabama, because the primary deadline was passing. If he were planning a third-party run, he wouldn't have to file this early as that deadline is next year. Further, he wouldn't be running if he didn't think centrist Biden were in a tailspin (which he isn't, contrary to popular opinions).


The third party question relates to what Bloomberg will or won't do if he doesn't win the Democratic primary.

Two interesting new polls:

1) Bloomberg comes in sixth behind Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and one other (Harris?) and beats Trump 43-37 with 20% undecided. Not exactly an indication that anyone is waiting for him with baited breath.

2) In Michigan, Biden beats Warren but in Wisconsin Warren beats Biden. Trump only needs to lose one.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sonic Youth » Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:40 pm

OscarGuy wrote:A couple of points. Someone at another site posited, and I think it's a valid postulation that Elizabeth Warren KNOWS Medicare for All wouldn't pass the Senate, but as an opening gambit, doesn't it make "public option" a much more appealing alternative?


What it does is it makes a different candidate a more appealing alternative to a potential voter. What you're saying is fine if she's bringing the proposal, as a senator, to the senate floor. That's not what she's doing. She's making Medicare for All her signature promise as a presidential candidate. If she compromises, the left will feel betrayed and everyone will think she's untrustworthy.

She's still my candidate, but I've been very disheartened with her these past couple of weeks, especially considering how flawless her campaigning has been up until now. For such a savvy politician, I'm astonished she doesn't realise how deceitful she comes across whenever she dodges the tax question. And she needs to be less dismissive of the fact that there are lots of people who simply want to keep their plans. She's proposing a mammoth undertaking, and it needs to handled delicately so that people can gradually warm up to it. She's really whiffed this issue.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby OscarGuy » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:59 pm

A couple of points. Someone at another site posited, and I think it's a valid postulation that Elizabeth Warren KNOWS Medicare for All wouldn't pass the Senate, but as an opening gambit, doesn't it make "public option" a much more appealing alternative? The problem we've come across in recent years is that there are only extremes and no middle ground, there's no compromise. Dems don't mind compromising because they know that's how government is supposed to work, Republicans simply don't. There's merit in this idea and I suspect that if she can sell that current employer contributions could pay for most of health care while employees lower their contribution amounts, it might sound like a win to everyone. Corps aren't out more money because they already put in the money, but the regular working stiffs get money in the bank.

The other is that Bloomberg filed in, I believe it was Alabama, because the primary deadline was passing. If he were planning a third-party run, he wouldn't have to file this early as that deadline is next year. Further, he wouldn't be running if he didn't think centrist Biden were in a tailspin (which he isn't, contrary to popular opinions).
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Sat Nov 09, 2019 5:13 pm

Mister Tee wrote:I think Elizabeth Warren made a VERY big mistake early on: thinking that polling support for Medicare-for-all meant "throw out everything we have now", rather than "Medicare for anyone who wants to sign on to it, everyone else can stay where they are".


If this was tried, the insurance companies would still fund massive scare campaigns against it, unless the "Medicare for anyone who wants it" premiums were so high that no one would want it.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Sat Nov 09, 2019 4:12 pm

Mister Tee wrote
(Aside: Sabin, were you being sarcastic, or do you truly wonder why Biden has such support from African-Americans? Because the answer rhymes with Warack Shobama.)


You're referring to this quote:
He has strong support among African-Americans for some reason.


Oh, I get it. I was referring to his more problematic record which he mystifyingly refuses to just apologize for so we can move on.

In a more recent post, I described Mike Bloomberg as "Joe Biden with no grassroots support, working class appeal, or support from African-Americans." I know there's more that separates him which is why I also referred to him as a "warmthless Jewish billionaire."


Mister Tee wrote
And, second hot take: any one of them could beat Trump. No one is unelectable. Ask the Carter team, who rejoiced in 1980 when Reagan got the nomination, since everyone knew he was another Goldwater. Thinking the Dems are doomed if they don't nominate someone from the mushy middle is Beltway conventional wisdom that's based on basically nothing.

I had a similar conversation with a friend today who was terrified that we had a terrible group of candidates. I then reminded him of our 2004 Starting Lineup.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Mister Tee » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:26 pm

It's remarkable, the degree to which aging white billionaires seem to feel it's their perspective that's missing from the conversation.

Nate Silver has already pinpointed Bloomberg's big problem: the niche to which he caters -- mostly socially liberal (except on crime) but don't raise my taxes -- is literally the smallest in existence, especially in a Democratic primary. But it does represent a strong percentage of NY/DC media types, so you can bet he'll get ten times the coverage he deserves.

I think Elizabeth Warren made a VERY big mistake early on: thinking that polling support for Medicare-for-all meant "throw out everything we have now", rather than "Medicare for anyone who wants to sign on to it, everyone else can stay where they are". Current, more nuanced polling clearly shows the latter is where most Americans are, and it's not like Warren couldn't slowly realign herself in that direction. Instead, she seems to be doubling down on her initial position, and it's undercut her otherwise significant (and surprising, to me) intra-party polling.

We're in a weird spot right now: Biden continues to hold the top spot in most primary polling, yet is widely perceived to be crashing. Buttigieg is within a point or two of Harris in overall polling, yet he's described as surging while her obituary's been written by Politico.

Hot take: it's not only early, it's still pre-season. Biden's lead has been solid, but unimpressive -- 30-ish % is what Howard Dean had in late 2003, and we know where that went. (Aside: Sabin, were you being sarcastic, or do you truly wonder why Biden has such support from African-Americans? Because the answer rhymes with Warack Shobama.) Until actual voters weigh in, this is all sophistry, and many recent election cycles have shown massive swings in a week's time. (Sometimes multiple swings: in 2008, Obama shocked everyone by winning IA, then, a week later, Hillary shocked everyone by winning NH.) Any of half a dozen candidates could emerge as the nominee.

And, second hot take: any one of them could beat Trump. No one is unelectable. Ask the Carter team, who rejoiced in 1980 when Reagan got the nomination, since everyone knew he was another Goldwater. Thinking the Dems are doomed if they don't nominate someone from the mushy middle is Beltway conventional wisdom that's based on basically nothing.

And we don't even know for sure Trump is the nominee. Many chapters still to come.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sonic Youth » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:35 pm

Big Magilla wrote:Is it because he doesn't want them to win or because he doesn't think they can win?


Oh, he'll SAY he doesn't think they can win, but he doesn't truly believe it. As you just said, "It seems unlikely but at this point four years ago no one was predicting Trump would get the Republican nomination".

Why are all the former New York mayors hellbent on destroying their legacies? Someone better keep an eye on David Dinkins.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:01 pm

Is it because he doesn't want them to win or because he doesn't think they can win? In any case, he won't run as a third party candidate because he knows not only won't he win but neither will the Democratic candidate.

The line Democrats are likely to use to calm moderates who fear a Warren or Sanders will mean the end of their private health insurance plan is "don't worry, it never pass the Senate" - which probably won't placate anyone. "The top 1% will pay for everything" is already being compared to Trump's "Mexico will pay for the wall" as something only fools believe.


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