Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Great choice, and great to see this film (still my number two of 2018) get some recognition.

Awesome choice! I get so happy when these bodies stray from the norm and spread the wealth, especially with a film as deserving as this.

I definitely did not see this one coming.

Leave No Trace wins -- to continue the season's tradition of bafflement. (Not that it's a bad choice.)

Mister Tee wrote
Though it's truly amazing to me that Black Panther, ignored by so many tech areas (today it was omitted by the Visual Effects Society), would find its most positive response, in these prelims, from the writers.

Ryan Coogler is a USC grad -- and one of the most promising USC grads in years. It's not that surprising.

dws1982 wrote
I don't think it'll go that way (A Star is Born wasn't eligible here, but I'm not sold on it as an Oscar nominee), but stranger things have happened.

I'm not sold on A Star is Born getting nominated for screenplay either. I think Film Editing is a stretch too.

I think If Beale Street Could Talk is a lock here. James Baldwin is the most acclaimed novelist of this bunch, IMO, and this script is incredibly literary. It's the only place I think Beale has any momentum.

Mister Tee wrote:

dws1982 wrote: I do wonder if maybe the tide is turning in another direction.

What a weird Oscar season.

I don't at all dispute your take, but what direction would that be? Beale Street -- a film that's been battered by the Guilds? Can You Ever Forgive Me?, a financial dud? The others seem fringe candidates for writing.

I don't have a clue what direction the tide would turn. It's just odd to me that a mainstream, non-controversial film like BlacKkKlansman would miss out here. (Proof that we're living in a weird timeline: Spike Lee has directed one of the least controversial Oscar contenders of the year.)

I could see Beale Street just getting the 2 locked-in nominations, or I could see it surprising and getting up to 6. If it surprises with the nominations, it might be a possible winner. I don't think it would happen (and I wouldn't want it to), but I suppose there's an off-chance that this category becomes a place where people decide to honor Bradley Cooper's year. I don't think it'll go that way (A Star is Born wasn't eligible here, but I'm not sold on it as an Oscar nominee), but stranger things have happened. Maybe as an above-the-line place to honor Black Panther? Again, I'm not sold on it as an Oscar nominee, and it's not seen as a particularly writerly endeavor. I think the internet probably feels that it needs to be honored more than the Academy will. I guess I'll just be thankful that Bohemian Rhapsody is not based on a book.

Maybe NYU peeps don't do well with the USC crowd. I don't see nominations for The Aviator, The Wolf of Wall Street, or Hugo.

dws1982 wrote: I do wonder if maybe the tide is turning in another direction.

What a weird Oscar season.

I don't at all dispute your take, but what direction would that be? Beale Street -- a film that's been battered by the Guilds? Can You Ever Forgive Me?, a financial dud? The others seem fringe candidates for writing.

Though it's truly amazing to me that Black Panther, ignored by so many tech areas (today it was omitted by the Visual Effects Society), would find its most positive response, in these prelims, from the writers.

Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace

This group has pretty solidly nailed the Adapted Screenplay award for the past decade. They don't always nominate the same five that the Academy nominates, but many years they nominate 4 out of 5 that the Academy will eventually nominate. Up in the Air was the last winner from this group that lost the Oscar, although their record before that is not great.

This is one of the few significant snubs for BlacKkKlansman all season. It seemed like the perfect place to honor the film, and Lee, and I'm not saying that's impossible right now, but I do wonder if maybe the tide is turning in another direction.

What a weird Oscar season.