A brief thought about this group's awards/predictions, which will be announced tonight:
As you know, I couldn't hold this group in any lower esteem, but tonight will demonstrate just how deep their level of whore-dom goes. Their voting all took place this week, post-Globes. My deep suspicion last year was that, in seeking to solidify rather than impact the ultimate Oscar win, they might have changed some of their preferences to match the Globes (i.e., prior to the Globes, they might have followed the critics' dominant winners, Dafoe and Metcalf, but in the wake of the Globes, they simply copy-catted Rockwell and Janney). It was possible to disagree with that thesis -- to think that Rockwell, especially, was a more Oscar-predictory choice than the too-indie Dafoe.
OK, but, this year, I think it'll be a tougher argument to make. Up till last Sunday night, I think it's safe to assume they, like most everyone, viewed Bradley Cooper as the runaway choice for lead actor, meaning the'd have voted for him. They'd possibly have gone for Gaga, as well, though that's not as clear (they might have wanted to start a Close campaign themselves). Now, though, if they go for Close and especially Malek, it'll be clear they're totally in the business of not merely attempting to predict the Oscars, but to do everything they can to set the agenda, regardless of what that agenda is.
As for the supporting awards: I think it's likely the Globe choices would have been their choices even if arrived at blindly. Green Book is the sort of movie this bland-taste crew would swoon over, and, as I argued some weeks ago, Richard E. Grant's critical run was not quite dominant enough to offset his film's commercial fizzle. (I'd be delighted to be wrong.) And Regina King is simply a overwhelming enough critics' choice that they'll go with her despite any doubts. (Her problems arise further down-field, with the two TV awards for which she's not eligible.)
The one place this group's choice is up in the air is best picture. A Star is Born seems exactly the sort of movie for which they'd go hog-wild. But they've often shown a tendency to echo major critical sweeps, a category into which Roma clearly falls. They've chosen critics' favorites that didn't seem to be Oscar likelies that have gone on to win (No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker), some that didn't make it (Sideways, The Social Network, Boyhood), and a few that seemed like they'd make it but fell short at the finish (Brokeback Mountain, La La Land). The point is, they rarely stray from the critics' consensus. In years where there is no critics' consensus, they'll go their own way (and, not infrequently, end up pointing to the Oscar choice: Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, The Shape of Water). But this isn't that kind of year. So, despite it being a real taste-stretch for them, it wouldn't surprise me to see them name Roma best picture.