Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

And Call Me by Your Name wins best picture, with The Florida Project running second.

How spread out was this? I noted the other day there were 11 films that seemed possible for best picture citation. 7 of those films (Call Me by Your Name, The Shape of Water, The Florida Project, Lady Bird, The Phantom Thread, Get Out and Dunkirk) won awards today, and an 8th -- Three Billboards -- was runner-up in three high-profile spots. The missing were The Post, The Big Sick and Darkest Hour. Even if only the first of those three makes ts way onto the ultimate best picture slate...this is the very definition of a wide-open field. What are those minor critics groups, and the Broadcasters -- whose only goal in life is to anticipate the consensus -- going to do? They might have to vote their own choice, for a change.

Chalamet now has a chance (even a likelihood) of sweeping the traditional three critics' groups. This won't make him an Oscar favorite, but it should -- at least until the TV awards come along -- prevent people from calling Gary Oldman a runaway front-runner. (For once, my instincts were correct: the critics don't want much to do with that prosthetics-and-imitation performance.)

What can you say about best actress? After NY, people seemed ready to toss it to Ronan -- and she could well win. But this massive splitting of honors -- the only fitting thing, in a year so rich -- could keep the competition going a long way. (I'm already fantasizing McDormand/Ronan winning the Globes, Hawkins at BAFTA and Streep at SAG. Hoo-eey, would that be fun!) Spreading the wealth was such a good idea this year, it weaned LA off its subtitled addiction.

I'm still thinking Dafoe is an unlikely candidate to run through the whole season untouched -- I can't believe Rockwell or one of the Call Me by Your Name/Shape of Water guys won't offer resistance somewhere. But I have to acknowledge it hasn't happened yet, and the clock is running.

Someone at Awards Watch made a surprisingly apt analogy to the supporting actress race: 1999, when Chloe Sevigny was a critics' darling, but the Angelina Jolie performance -- a much more showy one -- found its footing at Globes/SAG. The analogy falters a bit, in that Sevigny was strictly an indie lady, where Metcalf is a veteran well-liked from TV work. But it may be the broader work of Janney will play better when critics are not the arbiters.

If best picture is wide open, narrowing it down to five for the best director category is gong to be a true nightmare. del Toro and Guadagnino join Spielberg, Nolan, and an assortment including Baker, Gerwig, McDonagh, Peele, Anderson.

I worried that, despite the wealth of choices the season offered, early awards would narrow things down unnecessarily. Happily, so far at least, that doesn't seem to be the case.

These ties are lovely. All the Precursor Shows have been very divisive so far. This is exciting.

I hope Oldman really gets some momentum going with this awarding of Chalamet.

Another tie, for best director: del Toro and Guadagnino.

This all feels deliriously uncertain, which you know is my favorite feeling this time of year.

NOTE: a member tweeted that Dee Rees, Greta Gerwig and Sean Baker finished just outside the circle. Conspicuous by absence: Christopher Nolan, whose Dark Knight finished second for both picture and director with this group in 2008.

With two awards to go, ‘The Shape of Water’ looks the strongest with wins for Cinematography AND acting and a runner up for Production Design and Score.

The only thing I’ll bet the farm on is I’m wrong about PTA for Director.

And best actress is now a rock 'em/sock 'em free-for-all, as Sally Hawkins wins, with Frances McDormand second.

If you're keeping score, that's Meryl Streep NBR, Saoirse Ronan NY, and Sally Hawkins/Frances McDormand showing in LA.

Imagine a four-way race all the way to the end -- with all four representing best picture nominees.

I guess he's still missing a nom. (According to bizarre, anyway.)

The rare repeat from NY in lead actor -- Chalamet, with Franco second.

So, another major contender gets a mention. This voting really confirms the wide field we're dealing with this year.

A tie in foreign film. Now THAT'S the LA we know and love.

Now it’s getting interesting

As they're at lunch now...some quick thoughts on the first half:

I like Dafoe in The Florida Project -- I fully endorse his nomination -- but I would have never imagined that performance doing a Mo'Nique with the critics' groups. I agree with Mister Tee, that given the plethora of options, spreading the wealth would seem a lot more fair.

Even as a runner-up, I don't get the Mary J. Blige thing AT ALL. What about that performance even approaches best of the year level?

Phantom Thread and The Shape of Water strike me as the twin peaks of the year in film music, so their citations get a big thumbs up from me.

I know many think this is finally Roger Deakins's year to win the Oscar -- and it may well be -- but Blade Runner 2049 is going to have some STIFF competition in Cinematography from both Dunkirk and The Shape of Water, two films that will be presumably more popular overall. That's a real race. (And I think the Production Design Oscar will come down to Blade Runner/Shape of Water as well, as it did here).

Tweets from a voter:

“Lots of support for Armie Hammer, Jason Mitchell in [Best Supporting Actor], too.”

“Lots of #LAFCA support for Tiffany Haddish and Lois Smith, too.”

Mister Tee wrote:Apparently there was some debate about what constituted a supporting performance prior to the vote.

Well, some people do need help figuring this out these days.

So, Laurie Metcalf repeats her NBR win. I'd honestly thought, if either of the two had a chance to run away with it, it was Janney. But, early days.

And LA gives some credence to the Mary J. Blige push.

LA seems to like EVERYTHING this year -- wins or runners-up for Lady Bird, Florida Project, Three Billboards, Mudbound, Dunkirk, Blade Runner, Shape of Water, Phantom Thread -- pretty much everything except The Post and Call Me by Your Name (though reports are Armie Hammer -- not Stuhlbarg -- figured in the supporting actor vote).

NBR - Willem Dafoe
NY - Willem Dafoe
LA - Willem Dafoe

Shit, mates...

Sabin wrote:Supporting Actor is going to be a tie. It’s taking twenty minutes.

Apparently there was some debate about what constituted a supporting performance prior to the vote.

For the life of me, I can't fathom the critics falling in line so far unanimously for Dafoe. In a year so rich, spreading the wealth should be mandatory.