The Original BJ wrote:
This is nothing but anecdotal evidence, but I'm genuinely surprised by how many people in my circles (i.e. Hollywood) DESPISE Manchester by the Sea. And I don't mean, they think it's simply overpraised, but they think it is a colossal snooze where absolutely nothing of interest happens. Obviously, this doesn't seem to be a response shared by awards bodies in toto -- Manchester seems to be running, at worst, third in the Best Picture derby. But I am starting to wonder if what many of us thought would be a likely Manchester writing prize might get tripped up, as occurred at the Globes, by simply stronger enthusiasm for La La.
This is a reminder to me that I live in NY and will never regret it. The scenario you note, though, does evoke another case of the big sweeper taking a screenplay prize from a more obviously "written" film -- Return of the King vs. Mystic River, the latter somehow not truly embraced despite great box office success, glamour nominations and two acting winners.
I suddenly realized late in the day that I have no chance of being an Oscar completist this year, because threats of eternal damnation couldn't get me to watch that Michael Bay Benghazi movie. I guess Hollywood isn't ALL Democrats. filmfan noted elsewhere that Bay's movies have accumulated 17 nominations with not a single one above the line. I haven't taken the time to look it up, but I'd have to guess at least 12-13 of them are in the two sound categories.
Something else that got in my craw late: somehow, there were enough votes to nominate mediocrities like Hidden Figures, Hacksaw Ridge and Fences and bring the best picture slate to 9 -- but last year they couldn't scrape up enough votes to get the best-reviewed film of the year (Carol) on the list, so they stopped at 8.
And, though there are other circumstances involved, this year we have the case of a movie getting 8 nominations -- including all key ones -- yet its central performer is left off...and a well-reviewed biopic with sensational reviews for its lead fails to score in all but two other minor categories. It's hard not to consider that, if these films were fronted by actors rather than actresses, the situations would have turned out differently. While we're celebrating the victory over #Oscarssowhite, maybe we need to look at #Oscarsssomale.
(Just to somewhat undercut that whole paragraph, I'll side with BJ, that Amy Adams' omission was largely a case of 7-into-5-won't-go. But I can't help thinking this was involved as well.)
By the way, I realized that when I wrote earlier, I failed to include Isabelle Huppert among things that made me happy. This is only because I had begun to take her nomination for granted. I'm delighted to see such an undervalued-by-AMPAS actress get recognized for such an impressive role.
As regards Jungle Book, BJ: this may partly be the perspective of somebody raised in an era when Cleopatra and Thunderball were visual effects winners...but, for me, I need some semblance of the physical world for the effects to register as magical/special. Watching DiCaprio/Page walk down a seemingly normal street and having it tilt on its axis is wow-worthy. Watching Mowgli interact with green-screen for two hours doesn't have the same impact. (To be honest, if you hadn't reminded me Mowgli was real, I might have half-remembered him as CGI, as well.)
My feeling about La La Land is, its baseline set of wins is probably about 8: film, director, song, score, cinematography, production design, sound mixing, editing. I think actor and sound editing are very unlikely, unless voters are on auto-pilot by that part of the ballot. Actress, screenplay and costumes are the ones that might or might not propel it into the upper reaches of the record books.