Re: Pre-Nominations Thumbsucker
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:01 pm
To start with the acting races, I see all four categories as being somewhat unique in makeup at the moment.
Supporting Actress strikes me as the one with very little wiggle room at all. Four of the performers -- Davis, Williams, Harris, Kidman -- seem very strong to me, in the kind of roles that you watch and instantly think, that's getting a nomination. The fifth spot seemed to be pretty wide open...until Octavia Spencer got both Globe and SAG nods. This isn't to say the category is locked up -- I could still easily see a situation where Janelle Monáe swapped in for her costar as the Hidden Figures representative -- but I don't see all too many other options on the horizon, and I don't view the core contenders as being that vulnerable.
Lead Actress feels like a category that will be difficult to predict 5/5, but not because there's so much room for wild surprises -- there are just too many strong candidates already on the table, and some have to be left out. I'd say Stone and Portman are both sure things, though the recent chatter that Portman could somehow miss for a performance that superb is giving me unneeded panic. Adams is in an enviable spot -- she's got all the precursors she needs, and is attached to a film likely to do well -- but could still find herself squeezed out if another candidate rises. I tend to think Huppert will make it in, but I do still have my concerns that the subject matter of Elle could be a deciding factor in a race this tight, and don't think she's a sure thing. It seems to me that there's probably room for only one of Streep/Bening/Negga, but I play musical chairs in my head trying to determine who is most likely. A Blunt nom wouldn't come from nowhere, but the movie's reviews were SO poor, I really chalk the SAG nom up to the fact that her movie was just more widely SEEN by that group than something like Elle or 20th Century Women. As for Henson, her movie is certainly having its moment at the right time, but is that performance really going to get enough #1 votes in a lineup this competitive?
Lead Actor seems about moderately ripe for an upset nominee, once you get past Affleck/Washington/Gosling. There's been some recent talk that Gosling might be knocked off, but that seems crazy to me -- he's attached to the likely nomination leader, has been building up credit for a second nomination for a decade now, and is competing in a pretty thin field. Mortensen and Garfield seem WAY more vulnerable to upset, though from who, it's hard to know. Joel Edgerton seems the most likely candidate -- he'd be as decent a ballot-filler as they would -- but it's possible another dark horse rises.
Supporting Actor feels like the category that's most likely to have a nominee we just haven't considered, or have barely considered beyond wishful thinking. I agree Ali and Bridges seem the most certain. Patel feels pretty solid to me -- I think his Lion work is WAY above his Slumdog Millionaire turn, and don't view his evidence of missing there as any bad sign. I'm very much hoping the Manchester pull will carry Hedges along, especially because he's so strong, but acknowledge his age is a hurdle. Grant seems most vulnerable of the SAG slate, given the lightweight nature of his movie and the fact that it's well outside the Best Picture hunt. And then there are a ton of candidates -- Taylor-Johnson if the Globe win proves prophetic, Shannon given that they've gone for him before, Costner if his movie's success carries him in, one of the other Moonlight guys if voters realize Ali wasn't the only one doing impressive work there, or the potentials even further out on the fringe that Mister Tee mentions. Or someone we aren't thinking of at all. Last year's surprises in this category -- Ruffalo and Hardy -- were from movies solidly in the main races, but no one much considered them likely at this point.
Also, a word on actors who might show up in lead or support. I view Viola Davis as the least likely to be upgraded, simply for the reason Vikander/Mara showed up in support last year -- she's going to get way more #1 votes in support, mainly because it's so clear she'll win in a walk there, and I don't see voters having much resistance to setting the stage for that happening. (This is a conversation for another post, but I also view Davis as being not as clear-cut a fraud case as Vikander/Mara were last year.) Patel and Grant, though, strike me as more possible, simply because I don't imagine either will be near the top of the supporting actor lineup, and the lead male category is so thin. I could see a situation where Grant ended up the 5th-place Best Actor nominee, without getting enough votes to crack Supporting Actor at all, resulting in a surprise upgrade.
As for Best Picture, I'm still wondering if we get fewer Best Picture nominees this year. The top candidates seem to be hogging so much of the oxygen, and the second-tier slate just doesn't seem that strong in Oscar terms, I wonder if enough movies will cross the threshold to get us 9 (or even nominees.
Director is another category where I think there's room for a wild surprise, given how so many of the second-tier Best Picture candidates don't seem like lone director-type nominees. It's possible that surprise is someone with another movie viewed as in the conversation, like Pablo Larraín (PLEASE!) or Martin Scorsese. But I also wonder if the director's branch, which already had a history of elevating people like Fernando Meirelles and Pedro Almodóvar, and which invited a good amount of international directors this year, might find someone even crazier, like Maren Ade, Park Chan-wook, or Paul Verhoeven, to shock us.
Supporting Actress strikes me as the one with very little wiggle room at all. Four of the performers -- Davis, Williams, Harris, Kidman -- seem very strong to me, in the kind of roles that you watch and instantly think, that's getting a nomination. The fifth spot seemed to be pretty wide open...until Octavia Spencer got both Globe and SAG nods. This isn't to say the category is locked up -- I could still easily see a situation where Janelle Monáe swapped in for her costar as the Hidden Figures representative -- but I don't see all too many other options on the horizon, and I don't view the core contenders as being that vulnerable.
Lead Actress feels like a category that will be difficult to predict 5/5, but not because there's so much room for wild surprises -- there are just too many strong candidates already on the table, and some have to be left out. I'd say Stone and Portman are both sure things, though the recent chatter that Portman could somehow miss for a performance that superb is giving me unneeded panic. Adams is in an enviable spot -- she's got all the precursors she needs, and is attached to a film likely to do well -- but could still find herself squeezed out if another candidate rises. I tend to think Huppert will make it in, but I do still have my concerns that the subject matter of Elle could be a deciding factor in a race this tight, and don't think she's a sure thing. It seems to me that there's probably room for only one of Streep/Bening/Negga, but I play musical chairs in my head trying to determine who is most likely. A Blunt nom wouldn't come from nowhere, but the movie's reviews were SO poor, I really chalk the SAG nom up to the fact that her movie was just more widely SEEN by that group than something like Elle or 20th Century Women. As for Henson, her movie is certainly having its moment at the right time, but is that performance really going to get enough #1 votes in a lineup this competitive?
Lead Actor seems about moderately ripe for an upset nominee, once you get past Affleck/Washington/Gosling. There's been some recent talk that Gosling might be knocked off, but that seems crazy to me -- he's attached to the likely nomination leader, has been building up credit for a second nomination for a decade now, and is competing in a pretty thin field. Mortensen and Garfield seem WAY more vulnerable to upset, though from who, it's hard to know. Joel Edgerton seems the most likely candidate -- he'd be as decent a ballot-filler as they would -- but it's possible another dark horse rises.
Supporting Actor feels like the category that's most likely to have a nominee we just haven't considered, or have barely considered beyond wishful thinking. I agree Ali and Bridges seem the most certain. Patel feels pretty solid to me -- I think his Lion work is WAY above his Slumdog Millionaire turn, and don't view his evidence of missing there as any bad sign. I'm very much hoping the Manchester pull will carry Hedges along, especially because he's so strong, but acknowledge his age is a hurdle. Grant seems most vulnerable of the SAG slate, given the lightweight nature of his movie and the fact that it's well outside the Best Picture hunt. And then there are a ton of candidates -- Taylor-Johnson if the Globe win proves prophetic, Shannon given that they've gone for him before, Costner if his movie's success carries him in, one of the other Moonlight guys if voters realize Ali wasn't the only one doing impressive work there, or the potentials even further out on the fringe that Mister Tee mentions. Or someone we aren't thinking of at all. Last year's surprises in this category -- Ruffalo and Hardy -- were from movies solidly in the main races, but no one much considered them likely at this point.
Also, a word on actors who might show up in lead or support. I view Viola Davis as the least likely to be upgraded, simply for the reason Vikander/Mara showed up in support last year -- she's going to get way more #1 votes in support, mainly because it's so clear she'll win in a walk there, and I don't see voters having much resistance to setting the stage for that happening. (This is a conversation for another post, but I also view Davis as being not as clear-cut a fraud case as Vikander/Mara were last year.) Patel and Grant, though, strike me as more possible, simply because I don't imagine either will be near the top of the supporting actor lineup, and the lead male category is so thin. I could see a situation where Grant ended up the 5th-place Best Actor nominee, without getting enough votes to crack Supporting Actor at all, resulting in a surprise upgrade.
As for Best Picture, I'm still wondering if we get fewer Best Picture nominees this year. The top candidates seem to be hogging so much of the oxygen, and the second-tier slate just doesn't seem that strong in Oscar terms, I wonder if enough movies will cross the threshold to get us 9 (or even nominees.
Director is another category where I think there's room for a wild surprise, given how so many of the second-tier Best Picture candidates don't seem like lone director-type nominees. It's possible that surprise is someone with another movie viewed as in the conversation, like Pablo Larraín (PLEASE!) or Martin Scorsese. But I also wonder if the director's branch, which already had a history of elevating people like Fernando Meirelles and Pedro Almodóvar, and which invited a good amount of international directors this year, might find someone even crazier, like Maren Ade, Park Chan-wook, or Paul Verhoeven, to shock us.