Unofficial Academy Awards Discussion Board

Okri wrote:Why would Vikander and Mara split the votes?

Two young, kind of newcomers who share a demoted position due to campaign strategies in a really strong year for leading actresses. Both leading roles in two films whose subject matter belongs to ''the minorities''. I assume both will have their respective support, and that may be translated in vote split, as a sign of indecision on which performance of the two is the best. That's the reason I'm still forecasting a Winslet or Leigh victory. Add to that the hypothetical fact of those voters who may have the same dilemma I would have in their position: to vote for the best performance of the category, or for the best SUPPORTING performance.

Why would Vikander and Mara split the votes?

I consider that stupid narrative of both Leo and Kate winning quite strong. It could actually happen, given a likely vote split between Mara and Vikander. McAdams doesn't stand a chance with that performance, which is solid, but best supporting actress is not a category where such turns win, specially in the last decade. Spotlight's consolation prize is Screenplay. As for Jason Leigh, if Arquette won last year, why not her? It's even a better performance. I find so cryptic how often everyone agrees to give every awards to the same actor in the same year (Mo'Nique, Spencer, Plummer, Simmons, Arquette...) I'd love to see Leigh winning, for the performance, and for terminating with this preposterous category fraud in almost the half of the category, though I agree that Rooney Mara gives the best performance of the five nominees. Anyway, I'm predicting Vikander to win SAG, and if that happens, she has the Oscar in the bag.

This is a very interesting category at the moment. In recent years, this award has usually gone to a film nominated for Best Picture, but this year, only Rachel McAdams fits that keyhole, and her performance is so underwhelming it's hard to see her winning. Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe, but HFPA members may have just voted for the biggest star they could.

I feel this is going to be a two way race between Rooney Mara & Jennifer Jason Leigh by virtue of the fact that Rooney Mara easily gives the best performance and is playing a lead role (though I haven't seen Winslet's yet - will be waiting to use a free ticket for that one) and Jennifer Jason Leigh has been around for what seems like forever usually delivering solid work and would be seen by many to be 'over-due'.

I have to admit that if I were an Academy member I would vote for JJL. I found The Hateful Eight and it's performances cartoonish and largely one-dimminsial but hell Leigh is something of a legend and I'm a longtime fan of hers. Also, I don't like the blatant category fraud of Mara, despite her wonderful work in Carol. There are bound to be Academy members that share though's views, but how many will determine the winner.

If I had a vote it would be for Vikander, although I wish her nomination had been for Ex Machina where the category fraud is less obvious.

I think she'll win, but Mara is also possible. The Globes aside, I don't think Winslet will win a second Oscar so soon for a film with so little support elsewhere. Leigh and McAdams are also-rans. This weekend's SAG awards might give this race more direction.

dws1982 wrote:

anonymous1980 wrote:Winslet just won the Globe and the whole let's give it to both Leo and Kate the same year narrative could be appealing to some voters.

Although Winslet is easily my favorite of the four I've seen here, I'd fully support revoking the voting privileges of anyone who voted based off of as idiotic of a "narrative" as that.

anonymous1980 wrote:Winslet just won the Globe and the whole let's give it to both Leo and Kate the same year narrative could be appealing to some voters.

Although Winslet is easily my favorite of the four I've seen here, I'd fully support revoking the voting privileges of anyone who voted based off of as idiotic of a "narrative" as that.

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

One of the most interesting categories at the Oscars this year, IMO for the simple reason that, at this point, I have no idea who's going to win and you can make a solid argument for any of the five women winning. Leigh has a showy role in a Tarantino film and she's also been around a while and is Vic Morrow's daughter, she's a little bit of Hollywood royalty. And it's her first ever Oscar nomination after being around for so long. Rooney Mara has a lead role and could win votes from all the Carol fans in the Academy. McAdams could get swept up if the Academy wants to give Spotlight more prizes OR be Spotlight's consolation prize. Vikander is a pretty hot young thing who had a banner year. Winslet just won the Globe and the whole let's give it to both Leo and Kate the same year narrative could be appealing to some voters.

I'm interested to see how BAFTA and SAG will go on this.